Analysis Report | Is the "historic moment" of defeating the seven giants of the US stock market and the Nasdaq here?

Last year, the "Big Seven" of the US stock market became the biggest contributors to the market's rise, accounting for two-thirds of the S&P 500's return. Excluding the "Big Seven," the closing price of the S&P 500 last year was only 4175 points.

However, in 2024, the "Big Seven" of the US stock market will face an antitrust test. According to media reports this week, Alphabet-C is involved in two antitrust cases. In early May, it will present its closing arguments in a search monopoly case, and at the beginning of the year, it faced a lawsuit from the Department of Justice regarding advertising monopoly. The Federal Trade Commission will also take Meta Platforms to court over antitrust and mergers. In addition, the Department of Justice's investigation into Apple is entering its final stages, and a comprehensive lawsuit is expected to be filed in the first half of the year.

Analysis suggests that the outcome of the antitrust rulings may directly impact the monopoly status of Alphabet-C and Meta Platforms, weakening the tech giants' ecosystem advantage.

Rebecca Allensworth, a professor at Vanderbilt Law School, pointed out:

"I believe that 2024 may be an important year for enforcers, but progress, as seen in the US v. Alphabet-C case, is slow."

Two antitrust cases involving Alphabet-C, closing arguments in the search monopoly case to be presented in early May

In 2023, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Alphabet-C for illegal monopoly in the search engine market, but the judgment may not be reached until the end of 2024.

After two months of testimony, the non-jury trial concluded in November last year. US District Judge Amit Mehta stated that he did not know how to rule on the core issue of the case, "whether Alphabet-C has consolidated its monopoly position through illegal agreements, making its search engine the default for Apple and other products." Alphabet-C controls about 90% of global internet searches.

Alphabet-C argues that its search engine dominates the market because it is an excellent product that produces the most relevant search results.

Mehta has scheduled closing arguments for early May. If he makes a ruling unfavorable to Alphabet-C, he will oversee another litigation process to determine how to restore competition in the search market. Under US antitrust law, a judge can force Alphabet-C to divest parts of its business. However, some legal experts believe that this is unlikely in this case.

Alphabet-C is also preparing to face a lawsuit from the Department of Justice in early 2024, claiming that Alphabet-C is an illegal monopolist in the internet advertising platform market.

The Department of Justice and several state attorneys general filed the lawsuit in January 2023. The case is being heard in the Eastern District of Virginia, known as the "rocket docket" for its relatively fast trial schedule. US District Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Virginia, has scheduled a pretrial conference for January 18, six months earlier than the proposed date by both parties, and indicated that the trial date could be announced as early as March. It is worth mentioning that Alphabet-C is currently facing more antitrust lawsuits, which could potentially disrupt the mobile app economy and result in billions of dollars in revenue loss for Alphabet-C.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in the United States filed a lawsuit against Meta Platforms Platforms in December 2020, and this year may see a judgment on the antitrust case against Meta Platforms Platforms.

The FTC, along with the Department of Justice, is responsible for enforcing antitrust laws. It accuses Meta Platforms Platforms of illegally disrupting competition by acquiring potential competitors such as the information platform WhatsApp and the photo-sharing app Instagram. Meta Platforms Platforms argues that these are competitive transactions that benefit consumers.

It is worth noting that the progress of this case has been slow. In June 2021, US District Judge James Boasberg dismissed the initial complaint, stating that the FTC did not sufficiently prove that Meta Platforms Platforms had monopoly power. After the agency strengthened and refiled the lawsuit, the judge stated that the agency could begin taking testimony from witnesses.

However, when the FTC requested Boasberg to expedite the litigation in December, Meta Platforms Platforms' lawyers argued that the case was "far from trial." The lawyers for Meta Platforms Platforms stated that the FTC had waited nearly a decade to question the historical acquisitions that the agency had reviewed in 2012 and 2014, and there was no reason to claim that the case was now urgent.

In addition to the three cases mentioned above (two of which involve Alphabet-C), according to media reports, three sources familiar with the matter stated that the Department of Justice's investigation into Apple has also entered the final stage. It is expected that a comprehensive antitrust lawsuit targeting Apple's strategy to protect the dominance of the iPhone may be filed in the first half of this year.

According to the sources, the investigation focuses on how Apple uses other products and services to defend against threats to its core business, making it more difficult for consumers to abandon the company's devices and for competitors to participate in the competition.

Specifically, investigators are studying why the Apple Watch can better integrate with the iPhone compared to other brands, and how Apple excludes competitors from the iMessage service. These sources also stated that they have examined Apple's payment system for the iPhone, which prevents other financial companies from offering similar services.