Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Two leading companies with 5 billion yuan projects successively landed, 2024 may be the year of mass production of humanoid robots (with concept stocks attached)

Zhitong App has learned that there has been a flurry of activity in the humanoid robot industry recently. At the beginning of 2024, Tuopu Group and Sanhua, two well-known Tesla automotive suppliers, announced plans to invest a total of 5 billion yuan each in robot production bases. These two pieces of news may become significant events marking the substantial industrialization of humanoid robots. In addition, Figure, a startup in the humanoid robot industry, recently released a video of their coffee-making robot "Figure01," which has attracted attention. Meanwhile, the Mobile ALOHA, a general-purpose robot developed in collaboration with Google's DeepMind team and a Chinese team from Stanford University, has been making waves on social media with its ability to cook and do household chores.

Firstly, on the evening of January 3rd, Sanhua announced that it had signed an investment agreement with the Hangzhou Qiantang New Area Management Committee for the "Sanhua Intelligent Variable Frequency Controller Production Base Project" and the "Robot Electromechanical Actuator and Domain Controller R&D and Production Base Project." The total investment for these projects is expected to be no less than 5 billion yuan.

On the evening of January 4th, Tuopu Group also announced that it had signed an investment agreement with the Ningbo Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee for the "Robot Electric Drive System R&D and Production Base Project." The company plans to invest 5 billion yuan and build a robot core component production base on a 300-acre site in the Ningbo Economic and Technological Development Zone.

Both companies have remained silent on whether these investments involve humanoid robots. However, on one hand, both companies are suppliers to Tesla in China, and on the other hand, in terms of investment scale and volume, it would be difficult to digest such large amounts solely with industrial robots. Therefore, many industry insiders believe that these two plans are forward-looking layouts in the field of humanoid robots.

This leads to the market's judgment on whether this year will be a key turning point for the industrialization of humanoid robots. Previously, when Tesla released a video of its second-generation Optimus robot, the market speculated that compared to the million-dollar cost of Atlas, Optimus could potentially be priced at tens of thousands of dollars, indicating the possibility of large-scale production of humanoid robots.

Recently, driven by the huge demand for digital transformation in various industries, humanoid robots, as shining stars in the field of robotics, have attracted many players to enter and invest. From the perspective of market space, Goldman Sachs' analysis points out that in the next 10 to 15 years, the market space for humanoid robots will reach at least 6 billion US dollars, and in the most ideal scenario, it is expected to reach 154 billion US dollars by 2035.

China is also accelerating the development of industrial robots, especially humanoid robots. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots," which states that humanoid robots are expected to become disruptive products following computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, with mass production targeted to be achieved by 2025. At the same time, several domestic companies are also expanding their presence in the humanoid robot industry, with new products and components being released intensively.

For example, Fourier's general-purpose humanoid robot GR-1 has entered mass production and started pre-sales in September, with deliveries gradually taking place. iFlytek has released the first "large model + embodied intelligence" humanoid robot, and the launch of the Spark large model has propelled AIBOT to a new stage of development. Local innovation companies in Shenzhen, Leju Robotics and Shenzhen Openhong, have jointly launched the first domestically available open-source Hongmeng humanoid robot, Kua Fu, which is capable of jumping and adapting to various terrains. In terms of investment and financing, UBTECH, the first listed company in the humanoid robot industry, is scheduled to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2023.

Securities firms are optimistic about the accelerated commercialization of humanoid robots. Huaxing Securities believes that humanoid robots are developing rapidly and are close to mass production. Huaxin Securities believes that the industry is progressing steadily and continues to see investment opportunities in the robotics sector. Southwest Securities believes that Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group have successively announced robot component projects, aiming to accelerate the layout of humanoid robot production capacity and promote mass production of humanoid robots. This also sends a positive signal to the industry, demonstrating confidence in its development.

In terms of investment strategies, Zheshang Securities predicts that the demand for humanoid robots will reach approximately 1.77 million units by 2030, with a global market space expected to reach 169.2 billion yuan. The CAGR from 2023 to 2030 is projected to be 25%. Short- to medium-term applications will focus on industrial and commercial scenarios, while long-term applications will have a large space in personal scenarios. It is recommended to focus on targets with high barriers to entry, high value, and urgent need for domestic substitution, as well as targets with high certainty or marginal improvement in the industrial chain position.

Yuan Shuai, Deputy Secretary-General of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Industry Alliance, said, "According to market research reports, the scale of the humanoid robot market is expected to reach billions of dollars or even higher in the next few years. The humanoid robot industry chain includes algorithm development, controller manufacturing, servo system research, reducer production, component matching, system integration, and other aspects. In the future, companies need to strengthen cooperation and jointly promote the development and improvement of the humanoid robot industry chain."

In terms of sub-markets, Guojin Securities points out that humanoid robots are entering a stage of rapid technological and cost iteration. Compared with the "milling + grinding" process, the "cold forging + grinding" process has the characteristics of high efficiency and low cost. The precision of cold forging has reached C5 level, and the use of grinding machines can stably achieve qualified processing of humanoid robot roller screws. It is a method suitable for efficient mass production of roller screws. It is recommended to pay attention to manufacturing, molds, and equipment. In the manufacturing process, focus on the supplier of cold-forged precision parts, Xinzuobiao; in the mold process, focus on Hengfeng Tools; in the equipment process, including thread rolling machines and rolling machines, the key point is the localization of rolling machines. It is recommended to pay attention to Sijin Intelligent.

Relevant concept stocks:

UBTECH (09880): On December 29, 2023, UBTECH was officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. At the end of 2023, Great Wall Securities released a research report stating that the commercialization of humanoid robots is imminent and is expected to become a new blue ocean worth billions of dollars. VESYNC has been deeply involved in service robots for over a decade and is one of the few companies in the world that has full-stack robot technology and has achieved commercialization. Its rich technological reserves have laid the foundation for commercialization, and its products and services cover multiple fields such as education, logistics, and home services. Its business revenue has steadily increased, with a YoY growth of 23.35% in 2022. It is expected to become the first listed company in China's humanoid robot industry.

Xiaomi Group-W (01810): On August 14, 2023, Xiaomi released the second generation of its biomimetic quadruped robot, CyberDog2. Lei Jun introduced that in terms of appearance, CyberDog2 closely resembles a real dog. It uses AI to autonomously learn from the parallel training of 30,000 robot dogs. It is equipped with 12 CyberGear micro motors, AI-developed balance dynamic algorithms, and AI multimodal fusion perception and decision-making systems. It supports gesture interaction, voice control, face recognition, AIoT linkage, and fusion follow-up and obstacle avoidance. The system code is open source, the structural drawings are open, the functional interfaces are open, and it supports visual programming, promoting the development of the robotics industry. CyberDog2 is priced at RMB 12,999 and is positioned as a development platform.

BYD Electronics (00285): Previously, BYD Electronics signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the leader in the robotics industry, TESLINK, and the two parties will work together to build an industrial ecosystem and promote the rapid development of the robotics industry.

Baidu Group-SW (09888): On August 14, 2023, Jiyue, a strategic cooperation project between Geely and Baidu to create "automotive robot", announced an important progress. Geely's new automotive robot brand, "Jiyue," was officially launched, and its first model was named "Jiyue 01".

Sany International (00631): Sany Robot Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, was born against the background of Sany Group's comprehensive promotion of intelligent manufacturing and digital transformation. The company's main business includes intelligent industrial robots, integrated application equipment for industrial automation and robots, development and manufacturing of unmanned driving technology and related application software and hardware; manufacturing of industrial robots, special robots, etc.