In just 24 days, the US stock market has already surpassed the "Wall Street annual target". Is it rising too fast?

Thanks to the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the booming demand for AI, investors are highly optimistic about the future performance of tech giants. The Nasdaq and Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 have reached new highs.

Just 24 days into 2024, the stock prices of tech giants such as NVIDIA and Microsoft have skyrocketed in European and American stock markets. Following a five-day rally, Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 broke through 4867 points on Wednesday, achieving a level that Bloomberg analysts predicted would take nearly 11 months to reach.

Considering the escalating geopolitical tensions and the risk of economic recession after the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, Bloomberg data shows that Wall Street analysts conservatively predicted a 1.3% increase in Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 for 2024 in December last year, making it the most bearish annual forward-looking data in Bloomberg's history.

The bull market caught many professional investors off guard. Senior stock analyst Ed Yardeni, who has 40 years of experience, is concerned that this surge is driven more by market sentiment than significant improvements in corporate fundamentals. He believes that the market is at risk of overheating, especially considering the significant 24% increase last year. Yardeni said:

"We are concerned that the current market enthusiasm may lead to irrational investment behavior, further driving up stock market valuations, similar to the speculative bubble in the late 1990s when the technology sector inflated a speculative bubble. This bubble may burst when the market becomes overheated, ultimately leading to a market collapse."

It is worth mentioning that Yardeni is not bearish on the US stock market, but rather concerned about the rapid increase. He previously predicted that the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 index would reach 5400 points by the end of this year.

Despite the warnings about a bubble, some analysts remain optimistic. Analysts at Bank of America, including Benjamin Bowler, believe that the valuations of the seven tech giants are still relatively moderate compared to the bubble era of the late 1990s. If they were to reach half of the peak multiples of the seven major tech stocks at that time, today's so-called "seven giants" would have to increase by 55% each.

While discussions continue, Yung-Yu Ma, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Wealth Management, points out the key issue. He said:

"The market is indeed somewhat overheated, but I wouldn't say it is forming a bubble. The key question is whether the actual performance of companies in the future can meet the high market expectations."