1995 还是 1999？这是"NVIDIA 们"的关键问题。

Bank of America recently released a research report, raising the year-end target for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 from 5000 points to 5400 points. The bank's analysts believe that the current market sentiment in the U.S. stock market is closer to that of 1995, with emotions limited to a few specific themes such as AI, and has not reached a frenzied level.

As the U.S. stock market continues to rise recently, some investors believe that the market has entered a bubble, and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes may be about to burst the bubble. However, Bank of America analysts stated that the current U.S. stock market cannot yet be considered a bubble.

The analysts pointed out that based on past experiences, a significant gap between stock index prices and intrinsic values, widespread adoption of asset classes, or rampant speculative behavior amplified by leverage can be considered conditions for identifying a bubble. Examples such as the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the dot-com bubble in 2000, and the tulip bubble in 1637 all meet these conditions.

However, the current situation with Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 is different. The analysts mentioned that passive investments in Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 currently account for just over half of the total, compared to Japan where passive investments make up 80%. Additionally, CFTC data shows that speculators are currently in a net short position. Furthermore, despite the significant gap between the price and intrinsic value of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500, except for the "Magnificent 7," most stocks have price-to-earnings ratios closer to long-term average levels.

Most importantly, today's index is not comparable to those of the past few decades. The analysts stated that the leverage ratio of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 is only half of that in previous crises over the past few decades, with higher quality and similar or lower return volatility. The index components have shifted from 70% asset-intensive manufacturing, finance, and real estate in 1980 to 50% asset-light, innovation-driven companies today. Due to these changes, comparing today's price-to-earnings ratios with those of decades ago is meaningless. In addition, the company has been forced to abandon low-quality EPS growth through leveraged buybacks and global cost/tax arbitrage, and instead focus more on efficiency to generate more predictable profit margins, naturally leading to higher P/E multiples. Ultimately, valuation is a poor predictor in the short term (sentiment is a greater driver), but crucial in the long term, with today's valuation indicating a prolonged period of low price returns and a higher proportion of total returns from dividends.

So, is the current U.S. stock market more like 1999 or 1995? Analysts indicate that based on Bank of America's current neutral seller indicator, the current sentiment in the U.S. stock market is nearly identical to that of 1995, rather than the crazed bullishness of 1999. At the same time, the equity risk premium (ERP) of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 is almost the same as in the mid-90s, and by 1999, it had actually turned negative.

Analysts suggest that today's efficiency/productivity themes (AI, automation) are in their infancy, much like the personal computer revolution of the mid-90s. By 1999, tech stocks were valued based on prices, whereas today, the profit contribution and capital discipline of TMT (technology, media, telecommunications) are similar to the "Nifty 50" of 1995.

Analysts believe that the core message of the investor sentiment framework is to remain neutral on the U.S. stock market. Typically, bull markets end in frenzy, but today's frenzy is limited to a few specific themes such as AI and GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Since mid-2023, market sentiment has warmed up, slightly reducing analysts' confidence in the market's rise, but market sentiment is far from the bullish levels seen in previous market peaks. Analysts believe that the current bull market still has room to grow.