In 2014, Dogecoin surged by 30,000,000 times! Why did most people end up losing money?

Bitcoin has surpassed $73,000, rising nearly 30 million times in 14 years!

(Starting from a programmer exchanging 10,000 BTC for two pizzas in 2010, hence the name "Big Pizza")

Bitcoin has created a miracle of asset growth in human history, but most retail investors are still losing money.

The reason is surprisingly simple, just one sentence:

The timing of entry was wrong.

Li Xiaolai once bought in at $1, and it has now risen to $73,000.

If not sold, the initial $100,000 would have made tens of thousands of times in profit, worth billions of dollars,

while most retail investors bought in at the peak, hence suffering the most losses.

The results of buying in at $1 and $73,000 are naturally different.

So when is the best time to enter the market?

The answer is to enter during a bear market, the bearish the better. Because bear markets have the lowest prices.

As Warren Buffett said, when the blood is flowing in the streets, it is the best investment opportunity.

Even if you have no economic knowledge, you can judge what a bear market is, very simply, it is a huge drop.

Of course, how much is a huge drop? There is no definition, it is subjective rather than objective.

But generally, a stock market index dropping by 40% is considered very significant,

for digital currencies, it would need to drop by over 70% (you can consider BTC as the index of digital currencies),

historically, in several bear markets, the drop was around 80%.

The old saying: When others panic, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am in panic

Most people, when a crisis occurs, tend to focus on negative news,

which can easily lead to emotional issues. But as a mature retail investor, this is when you should smell the scent of money.

Because the bigger the crisis, the closer it is to the bottom of the bear market, which means more significant opportunities.

For example, in 2020, the spread of the "mask" during the COVID-19 pandemic led to a global economic shutdown. This was also the lowest point for global stock markets.

In the A-share market, companies like BYD and CATL rose five to six times from the bottom,

Great Wall Motors rose 10 times, stock king Moutai also rose more than double;

while Hong Kong and U.S. stocks like Nio rose more than 20 times, the popular Tesla rose 17 times;

digital assets like Bitcoin rose 10 times, Ethereum surged more than 40 times, and Sol skyrocketed by hundreds of times.

During the 2020 oil price war, there was a moment of negative oil prices, some oil stocks dropped by over 80%,

but within two years, oil prices rose to $130 per barrel, and oil stocks rose by more than ten times.

In the stock market crash of 2018 due to the trade war, there were also the lowest prices by the end of 2018.

In the A-share market crash of 2015, there were the lowest prices by early 2016.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the index dropped by 80%, followed by another bull market in 2009.

In 2000, the bursting of the internet bubble. At that time, Duan Yongping bottomed out NetEase and made over 100 times profit. In times of crisis, there are opportunities amidst the dangers, that's the truth.

But a sad fact is that most investors do the opposite - they enter the market at the tail end of a bull market due to the lure of making money, media hype, and endorsements from influencers, and then sell out of fear during a bear market.

They were tempted when Tencent hit a high of HKD 700, and panicked when it dropped to HKD 180.

Therefore, for newcomers entering the market during a bull run, losses seem inevitable.

The same goes for the cryptocurrency market.

During the last bull market from March to June 2021, the global cryptocurrency user base surged from 100 million to 200 million. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at a high of $40,000 to $60,000, meaning more than half of retail investors entered the market at a very high price.

Bitcoin started its rally from $5,000, increasing tenfold. When the big bear market hit in 2022, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of $16,000, causing significant losses for those one billion retail investors.

Popular coins like Sol, which had risen from $260 to $10, saw a drop of over 95%. Blockchain concept stocks also suffered massive declines, with most falling by over 90%, such as MARA, COIN, MSTR, and CLSK.

Two Charts

In the last bull market, according to research data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in November 2022, 81% of investors lost money on Bitcoin, with only a few making substantial profits.

Among Bitcoin investors, 73% of users of Bitcoin trading platforms downloaded the app when Bitcoin broke $20,000. However, if these users invested in Bitcoin on the same day they downloaded the app, their initial investments were mostly losses (as of November 2022).

Furthermore, assuming investors put in $100 each month after downloading the app, 81% of them would lose money on Bitcoin. The median loss was $431, with 48% losing up to $900. Only a few investors made significant profits.

This doesn't even include the many who tried to get rich quick through contracts and ended up losing everything. If we include them, the loss rate would be at least over 90%.

For more details, refer to the BIS Digital Currency Market Report.

In essence, all of the above can be summed up by Warren Buffett's famous saying: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." Here, you will find that investing is actually very counterintuitive.

Despite having increased nearly 30,000,000 times, the fastest-growing asset in human history, most people end up losing money.

Therefore, to make a profit, contrarian thinking and counter-cyclical operations are crucial!