Rating Quick Look | Meituan's target price significantly raised! Apple's rating, Tesla's target price downgraded

Deutsche Bank: Downgrades Apple to "Hold" rating with a target price of $180

Morgan Stanley: Maintains "Overweight" rating on Tesla with a target price of $320

Analysts believe that the cooperation between Tesla and CATL may "change the rules of the game," and their partnership will bring new momentum to the U.S. electric vehicle market.

Wedbush: Lowers Tesla's target price from $315 to $300 to reflect declining deliveries

Bernstein: Lowers Tesla's target price from $150 to $120

"Compared to traditional and high-growth automakers, Tesla's stock price remains high on almost all valuation metrics, and relative to tech companies, its stock price looks expensive given its downward growth expectations."

Bernstein stated that despite the significant drop in Tesla's stock price, its valuation still carries a huge premium compared to other automakers, being six times that of other car manufacturers. This is because Tesla historically had much higher growth rates, but the situation is different now.

Citic Securities: Sets Pinduoduo's target price at $180

The bank pointed out that Pinduoduo's quarterly revenue and profit doubled year-on-year. Pinduoduo's performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 was strong. Total revenue increased by 123% year-on-year to 88.9 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 15.6%. Adjusted pre-tax profit increased by 111.9% year-on-year to 24.6 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 56.6%. Pinduoduo's market share in China and overseas e-commerce markets continues to grow.

The bank stated that China's domestic goods transaction volume (GMV) may increase by +20% year-on-year, conversion rate +6%, and profit margin around 3%. With regional expansion, Pinduoduo's overseas version Temu's GMV has also reached 8-9 billion USD. By 2024, Europe, Japan, and South Korea may become bigger growth drivers for Temu.

The bank believes that Pinduoduo can maintain +90% revenue growth and +30% adjusted net profit growth in the first quarter of 2024.

CICC: Raises Meituan's target price by 19.35% to HK$111

The bank pointed out that Meituan's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 23% year-on-year, slightly higher than the bank's/Bloomberg market expectations, with core business/new business growing by 27%/11%. The core business's adjusted operating profit margin decreased year-on-year due to a decrease in AOV for delivery and flash sales, as well as an increase in user subsidies and marketing expenses; the new business's loss rate narrowed year-on-year.

Externally, it is expected that in 2024, order volume/revenue growth rate will be 13%, with a decrease in AOV leading to a commission income growth rate lower than the order volume, but this will be partially offset by the advertising monetization part; UE is also affected by AOV, but considering the optimization of subsidy strategies, it is expected to maintain the 1.2 yuan/order in 2023. The bank holds an optimistic view on the competition in the food delivery industry, with Meituan still maintaining a leading market share.

Regarding flash sales, it is expected that the average daily orders in 2024 will be 8.7 million, accounting for 13% of the total orders, maintaining a slight loss (adjusted operating profit margin -2%). For in-store services, although industry competition remains fierce in 2024, the bank believes that the market structure may stabilize, maintaining the expectation that the in-store profit margin will recover to 35% by 2025 Taking into account the investment in offline business in 2024 and the beginning of a reduction in losses for community group buying, the bank believes that the company's performance in 2025 may reflect the actual value of Meituan. The bank gives a 15 times P/E ratio for local businesses in 2025 and considers a 0.5 times P/S ratio for new businesses, excluding community group buying business, discounting the target price for 2024 to HKD 111