CITIC Securities: Three Trends in the Optical Module Industry in 2024 from the Perspective of GB200 Architecture and OFC

According to the Zhixin Securities APP, Zhixin Securities released a research report stating that NVIDIA recently launched its latest product, the GB200, at GTC2024. The network architecture of the GB200 has a similar demand for optical modules as the previously released DGX H100, but the server and switch port rates have doubled. This is expected to drive the demand for AI optical modules from the 800G generation to the 1.6T generation. Additionally, at the recent OFC 2024, solutions such as single-wavelength 200G, LPO, and CPO showed rapid development trends, attracting high attention within the industry. These new solutions are expected to meet the AI industry's requirements for high-speed, low-cost, and low-power optical interconnects, potentially becoming an important direction for the future development of the optical module industry. It is recommended to focus on leading manufacturers in the direction of single-wavelength 200G 800G/1.6T, LPO, CPO, etc.

Zhixin Securities' viewpoint is as follows:

GB200: Driving AI Optical Module Demand to Upgrade to 1.6T

NVIDIA released the new generation product BlackWell GPU at GTC 2024, significantly improving computing/inference performance. In the cabinet-level solution GB200 NVL 72 released by NVIDIA, internal communication within the cabinet mainly adopts the NVLink network architecture, using copper interconnects entirely, while inter-cabinet communication adopts IB network architecture with optical interconnects (possibly some copper interconnects as well).

According to calculations by the third-party institution Semianalysis, the ratio of 1.6T optical modules used in the GB200 NVL 72 network architecture is approximately 1:2 (double-layer IB network) to 1:3 (triple-layer IB network), similar to the network architecture of the previous NVIDIA DGX H100. However, compared to DGX H100, both server and switch port rates in the GB200 architecture have doubled. Therefore, Zhixin Securities believes that if the GB200 series products are widely adopted, it will significantly drive the demand upgrade of AI optical modules from the 800G generation to the 1.6T generation.

One of the Trends at OFC 2024: Introduction of Single-Wavelength 200G Solutions, Expected to Drive Accelerated Deployment of High-Speed Products

Compared to the OFC2023 where 800G/1.6T products were mainly based on single-wavelength 100G solutions, a major highlight of this conference is the maturity of single-wavelength 200G products. In terms of optical chips, Broadcom showcased 200G EML, VCSEL, and CW optical chips at the conference, with this being the first demo of 200G VCSEL, proving the feasibility of 1.6T multimode optical modules. Based on the maturity of 200G optical chips and related packaging/coupling equipment, manufacturers such as Suzhou Xuchuang, Tianfutong Communication, and Xinyisheng also released their single-wavelength 200G 1.6T EML/silicon photonics/multimode solutions. Zhixin Securities believes that the new single-wavelength 200G solution, with fewer channels, has potential advantages in cost and yield, and is expected to drive the accelerated deployment of high-speed products such as 1.6T OFC 2024 Trend 2: LPO Solutions Maturing

Due to its advantages of low cost and low power consumption, LPO solutions have gained significant attention in AI computing clusters, showing strong potential applications. Recently, 12 manufacturers including NVIDIA, AMD, Suzhou Xuchuang, and Xinyisheng jointly established the LPO MSA (Linear Pluggable Optics Multi-Source Agreement), addressing the previous lack of standard protocols for LPO solutions.

At the OFC 2024 conference, LPO solutions have been integrated with other solutions: for example, Xuchuang showcased the LPO+ Silicon Photonics 800G/1.6T solution, while Dekolite presented the LPO+ Thin Film Lithium Niobate solution. Additionally, several manufacturers have proposed derivative solutions like TRO/LRO (performance and drawbacks fall between traditional solutions and LPO solutions), aiming to expand the application scope of such solutions. Furthermore, ByteDance also introduced a 51.2T 800G self-developed switch that fully supports LPO on all ports. Currently, LPO solutions are gradually maturing and are expected to be applied in various AI optical interconnection scenarios in the future.

OFC 2024 Trend 3: Advancements in CPO Solutions and Optical I/O

CICC Securities pointed out that at this year's OFC 2024, CPO remains an important topic, with enormous application potential in future ultra-large-scale network low-power deployments, large-scale artificial intelligence, and computing clusters. During the conference, Broadcom showcased the industry's first 51.2Tbps CPO Ethernet switch, Bailly, and announced that the product has been commercially delivered. Manufacturers like Ranovus and Marvell also released new CPO switches and highly integrated silicon photonics engines applicable to CPO scenarios.

Moreover, on-chip optical interconnect technologies represented by CPO are expanding to a wider range of optical I/O. Ayar Labs and Intel delivered keynote speeches on this topic and released related optical I/O products. In the long term, optical interconnects are expected to descend to the chip level, enabling future GPU to GPU interconnects within servers and expanding new application scenarios for optical interconnects.

Risk Factors:

Slower-than-expected development of the AI industry; lower-than-expected demand for new products like 1.6T; slower-than-expected progress in the development of new solutions/technologies like LPO/CPO; intensified market competition; technological path risks; geopolitical risks