Analysis suggests that 13F filings may have a time lag. Based on Druckenmiller's recent statements, he may not increase his holdings in NVIDIA in the second quarter. On the contrary, it is entirely possible that he will further reduce his holdings
Former Soros deputy and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller stated last week that the artificial intelligence frenzy may have been overhyped. He has trimmed many of his Nvidia holdings, although the scale of the reduction was not disclosed. The latest 13F filing provides important clues.
The 13F filing released this week shows that Druckenmiller's family office sold over 441,000 shares of Nvidia stock in the first quarter of this year, reducing its Nvidia holdings to only 176,000 shares. This means that as of the end of the first quarter, the reduction ratio exceeded 70%, with the remaining value of Nvidia holdings at approximately $158 million.
Analysts believe that the 13F filing is timely, only reflecting the situation as of the end of the first quarter. Based on Druckenmiller's statement last week, he may not increase his Nvidia holdings in the second quarter. On the contrary, it is entirely possible that he will further reduce his Nvidia holdings in the second quarter.
Recalling the key points of Druckenmiller's speech last week:
**"We did cut Nvidia and many other positions in late March. I just needed a break. We've had a hell of a run. A lot of things we recognized are now being recognized by the market.
I'm not Warren Buffett, I can't hold stocks for 10 to 20 years. Sometimes I really wish I were Buffett.
In the fall of 2022, a young partner introduced me to Nvidia. I can't even spell it, but I bought it anyway.
A month later, ChatGPT emerged, and even an old guy like me could understand what that meant, so I significantly increased my position. The prosperity of artificial intelligence may be a major trend we have never seen before, possibly even bigger than the internet."
Druckenmiller is one of the most successful global macro hedge fund managers. During his time at Soros' Quantum Fund, he achieved a rare 30+30 performance: a compounded annual return of an astonishing 30% over 30 years, with no losses in any year. Druckenmiller also accurately bet on Nvidia's current rise at the beginning of the AI boom last year, with Nvidia once being his largest holding.
Nvidia is set to announce its blockbuster earnings next week. Despite its stock price soaring by about 90% this year, Wall Street remains optimistic, with target prices getting higher. HSBC analyst Frank Lee believes that investors are currently underestimating the prospects of Nvidia's AI business, and the stock still has significant upside potential, raising Nvidia's target price to $1350.
In addition to Nvidia, Druckenmiller also significantly reduced or liquidated positions in companies such as Eli Lilly, Chevron, and UBS. The 13F filing also shows another important move by Druckenmiller: a significant increase in US small-cap stocks in the first quarter, investing in bullish options on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM.**
In fact, Druckenmiller is not the only one. Other well-known fund managers have also reduced their holdings in "Seven Sisters" and other technology stocks:
13F filings show that David Tepper significantly reduced his holdings in Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. David Bonderman's Wildcat Capital Management sold off Meta stocks, leaving a position of only $23.7 million. Michael Platt's BlueCrest Capital Management sold off Nvidia and Amazon.
Executives within the "Seven Sisters" companies also sold off:
Financial blog Zerohedge commented that we should also remind readers of Druckenmiller's comments last week, where he rated Bidenomics as "F". This is an ominous sign, indicating that he is far from optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy. Smart money does not want to get caught in Fed Chairman Powell's musical chairs game when the music stops