"The Roaring Kitty Storm" cannot rival the AI frenzy! NVIDIA firmly sits atop the hot list of US stock trading

Zhitong
2024.06.12 00:10
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NVIDIA, the AI chip leader, has become the most active and frequently traded asset target on the securities platform in the past week, surpassing the leader of meme stock trading, GameStop. Over the past 5 trading days, NVIDIA has reached a total of 570,600 transactions in stock and options trading, firmly holding the top spot in the heat of US stock trading

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, an important data report released by Interactive Brokers on Tuesday showed that NVIDIA (NVDA.US), the AI chip leader, became the most active and frequent asset traded on its securities platform in the past week, surpassing the meme stock trading leader GameStop (GME.US). "It is evident that the crazy meme stock trading storm brought by 'Roaring Kitty' cannot rival the global artificial intelligence frenzy led by NVIDIA," Interactive Brokers stated in a statistical data report.

Interactive Brokers' statistical data shows that NVIDIA, which occupies 80%-90% of the server AI chip market share, had a total of 570,600 transactions in stocks and options in the past 5 trading days. It maintained the top spot among the 25 most active U.S. stock trading targets tracked by Interactive Brokers.

Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, stated in a report, "There is no doubt that NVIDIA still holds the top spot, despite various dramatic events surrounding meme stock leader GameStop in the past few trading days, culminating in a bizarre live webcast."

Sosnick, the Chief Strategist, referred to Keith Gill, a well-known retail trader at GameStop (also known as "Roaring Kitty"), who hosted a live online broadcast on YouTube last Friday that attracted countless retail investors to watch. On a busy trading day at GameStop, "Roaring Kitty" returned to the YouTube live platform after a three-year hiatus. The company had previously announced lower-than-expected first-quarter results and disclosed a potential sale of up to 75 million shares.

GameStop's average tracking activity over a five-day period showed a total trading volume of 394,600 shares and options on the Interactive Brokers platform, far less than NVIDIA's 570,600 transactions during the same period. "Before the stock split calculation rule of 1 for 10 on Monday, NVIDIA was already in the lead. Unless proven otherwise, I stick to my view - that this is the U.S. stock market dominated by NVIDIA, and we are all just trading in it," Sosnick said.

The meme stock leader GameStop has seen a significant decline in popularity in recent trading days, facing significant upward pressure on its stock price, with a total decline of up to 35% over the past three trading days. Other meme stocks, such as AMC Theatres and BlackBerry, have also shown significantly less trading activity compared to the meme stock frenzy brought by "Roaring Kitty" when he announced his return to social media at that time.

The current frenzy of meme stock trading was fully driven by Keith Gill, the American retail trader known as "Roaring Kitty," returning to social media. Three years ago, it was Gill, the leading retail trader, who actively posted on the Wallstreetbets section of the Reddit forum, encouraging a large number of American retail investors to enter GameStop stockThis triggered the historically significant financial event of "retail investors squeezing Wall Street." In this battle where retail investors squeezed Wall Street, top hedge fund institutions like Melvin Capital declared bankruptcy after their short positions in meme stocks were forced to cover.

Global electric vehicle leader Tesla (TSLA.US) ranked third with 186,900 transactions during the same period. Sosnick pointed out a significant gap between the trading activities of Tesla and GameStop. He stated, "Tesla seemed surprisingly quiet in the past few trading days as investors remained low-key and cautious ahead of the extraordinary compensation package vote for Musk."

He emphasized in the report, "If there is significant progress in a certain direction at the Tesla shareholder meeting, do not be surprised if the level of retail trading activity rapidly increases." The Tesla shareholder meeting is scheduled to be held on Thursday Eastern Time.

Here is the complete data of the 25 most active US-listed companies in trading, as compiled by Interactive Brokers, with NVIDIA unquestionably leading the list in trading heat:

More retail investors may flock to NVIDIA in the future! NVIDIA's trading heat may continue to rise after announcing stock split

After NVIDIA's stock split plan officially took effect, the bullish sentiment on Wall Street showed no signs of diminishing. The well-known Wall Street investment firm Oppenheimer significantly raised NVIDIA's 12-month target price from $110 to $150 (NVIDIA closed at $120.91 on Tuesday) and gave it an "outperform" rating. Analysts led by Rick Schafer at the firm pointed out that since Huang Renxun, the founder and CEO of NVIDIA, delivered a keynote speech at Computex in 2024, he has been on a "roadshow." The firm emphasized NVIDIA's prime position in the field of artificial intelligence, benefiting from their full-stack AI hardware, network, and software solutions.

Furthermore, Wall Street investment banking giant Goldman Sachs reiterated its "buy" rating on NVIDIA and raised NVIDIA's target price from $120 to $135; Evercore ISI significantly raised NVIDIA's target price from $131 to $145; Argus raised NVIDIA's target price from $110 to $150.

Goldman Sachs stock strategist David Kostin stated in a report, "In theory, the fundamental value of a publicly traded company does not change when it splits its stock. However, empirical research shows that stock split announcements generally have positive effects." "Moreover, from the perspective of signaling, stock splits are considered a way for management to convey positive information or an optimistic outlook for the company's futureOne of the main reasons that stock splits can trigger a rise in stock prices is that stock splits make it easier for retail investors to buy high-quality stocks with good fundamentals. After the stock split plan, the price of the target stock significantly decreases, which means that stocks with excellent fundamentals can attract more investors to participate in trading. Previously, these investors often hesitated due to high stock prices.

Goldman Sachs' historical data shows that since 2019, the return on 46 Russell 1000 index component companies that have completed stock splits has been 4 percentage points higher than the S&P 500 index.

Is the surge of the "most important stock on Earth" far from over?

In late May, NVIDIA, the AI chip leader and dubbed by Goldman Sachs as the "most important stock on Earth," once again announced unparalleled performance that shocked global investors, dispelling concerns about a slowdown in spending by AI-related companies. NVIDIA once again strengthened the "AI faith" of tech stock investors single-handedly, driving the recent continuous rise of US tech stocks and also fueling a new round of crazy price surges for NVIDIA.

NVIDIA's Q1 total revenue increased by 262% year-on-year to $26 billion, setting a new historical high in total revenue, with the year-on-year growth rate exceeding 200% for the third consecutive quarter. Boosted by strong demand for the H100 GPU, NVIDIA's Q1 data center revenue increased by 427% year-on-year to $22.6 billion, also reaching a historical high.

Beth Kindig, a technology industry analyst from the well-known investment firm I/O Fund, recently released a research report stating that by 2030, NVIDIA's stock price is expected to soar by about 258% from its current level, and the market value is expected to reach $10 trillion (NVIDIA's current market value is about $2.97 trillion). The main logic behind this is that NVIDIA's next-generation AI GPU based on the Blackwell architecture is expected to bring significant revenue contributions.

NVIDIA has been deeply involved in the global high-performance computing field for many years, especially with its CUDA computing platform, which it has developed single-handedly and has become popular worldwide. The CUDA computing platform is an exclusive parallel computing acceleration platform and programming assistance software developed by NVIDIA, allowing software developers and engineers to use NVIDIA GPUs for accelerated parallel general-purpose computing (only compatible with NVIDIA GPUs, not compatible with mainstream GPUs such as AMD and Intel).

CUDA is a platform that ChatGPT and other generative AI applications heavily rely on, and its importance is on par with hardware systems, being crucial for the development and deployment of large AI modelsCUDA, with its high level of technical maturity, absolute performance optimization advantages, and extensive ecosystem support, has become the most commonly used and widely popular collaborative platform in AI research and commercial deployment.

NVIDIA's currently hottest AI chips, the H100/H200 GPU accelerators, are based on NVIDIA's groundbreaking Hopper GPU architecture, providing significantly more powerful computing capabilities compared to previous generations, especially in terms of floating-point operations, tensor core performance, and AI-specific acceleration. Even more significant is that the AI GPU based on the Blackwell architecture outperforms the Hopper architecture in all aspects of performance. For example, in the GPT-3 LLM benchmark with 175 billion parameters, the inference performance of the GB200 on the Blackwell architecture is 7 times that of the H100 system, and it offers 4 times the training speed of the H100 system.

Regarding the deployment of the new Blackwell architecture AI GPU in major data centers in March, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that the brand-new Blackwell architecture AI GPU products will be shipped in the second quarter of this year, ramped up in the third quarter, and officially deployed in data centers in the fourth quarter. It is expected that there will be a significant increase in revenue from Blackwell architecture chips this year.

In the March press release of NVIDIA's new Blackwell architecture AI GPU, Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly praised NVIDIA's AI hardware as the "best AI hardware." Musk also likened the AI hardware arms race among tech companies to a high-stakes "poker game," where companies need to invest billions of dollars annually in AI hardware to stay competitive.

Analyst Kindi predicts that by the end of NVIDIA's 2026 fiscal year, the revenue generated by NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture AI GPU will significantly surpass its predecessor architecture GPU - the H100. It is expected that by then, the Blackwell architecture will drive NVIDIA to achieve data center revenue of up to $200 billion