A comprehensive review of global risk assets in the first half of the year: Silver emerges as the biggest winner, followed closely by the Nasdaq, while the Japanese Yen and French bonds lag behind

Looking back at the first half of the year, the global financial markets have been full of drama and excitement. Giant tech stocks soared with the rocket of AI, precious metals like gold and silver shone brightly, while French assets were caught in a political storm and the Japanese yen fell in a tug-of-war with short sellers.

Deutsche Bank recently conducted a comprehensive review of the best and worst performing risk assets in the first half of the year. The results showed:

Silver unexpectedly took the crown with a 22.5% increase, becoming the highest returning financial asset in the first half of the year;

Nasdaq followed closely behind silver, with a return rate of 19% in the first half of the year;

French government bonds performed the worst among all risk assets, with a USD return rate of -6.8%.

First Half of the Year: Silver Emerges as the Biggest Winner, Tech Stocks and Oil Perform Well, Yen and French Bonds Lag Behind

Amid geopolitical disturbances, precious metals and commodities performed exceptionally well in the first half of the year.

Silver unexpectedly led all risk assets with a 22.5% increase, while gold and copper rose by 12.8% and 12.9% respectively, and WTI crude oil rose by 13.8%, all ranking at the forefront.

AI investments are flourishing, with US tech stocks continuing their strong rally.

In the first half of the year, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 18.6%, the S&P 500 Index rose by 15.3%, with the "Big Seven" soaring by 37%, and Nvidia skyrocketing by 149.5%.

On the currency front, the Japanese yen remains weak. Over the past half year, the yen has fallen by 12.7% against the US dollar. The yen has been the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies for two consecutive quarters.

Second Quarter: French Assets Plunge, US Stocks Show Increasing Divergence

Zooming in on the second quarter, there have been significant changes in the global financial macro environment. Inflation pressures have gradually eased, with the US core CPI growth rate in May dropping to the lowest level in nearly three years. The Federal Reserve hinted at a rate cut later this year, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada have already begun rate cuts.

However, despite the increasingly clear trend of rate cuts, sovereign bonds overall struggled in the second quarter, partly because investors believe the rate cut cycle will be a more gradual process Geopolitical risks fluctuate, the situation in the Middle East has eased, but with the early French election (the first round will be held on June 30), French assets collectively plummeted in the second quarter, once again making political risks the focus of the global financial markets.

Affected by the early election, in the second quarter, the French-German 10-year yield spread rose by 29 basis points, the largest quarterly increase since the sovereign debt crisis in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Furthermore, the French CAC 40 index fell by 6.6% in the second quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance in two years.

The second focus of the financial markets is the continued differentiation between US giant tech stocks and other stocks.

In the second quarter, Nvidia rose by 36.7% (the 7th consecutive quarter of gains), leading the "Big Seven" stocks to rise by 16.9%, further driving the S&P 500 index to rise for the third consecutive quarter by 4.3%.

However, other sectors showed weakness, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 index falling by 2.6%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index falling by 3.3% during the period.

Market performance outside the US was much weaker, with the European STOXX 600 index rising by only 1.6% in the second quarter; the Nikkei index fell by 1.9%, a significant drop from the 21.6% increase in the first quarter.

Prices of various agricultural products continued to fall in the second quarter, with corn plummeting by 10.1%, marking a sixth consecutive quarterly decline, while soybeans and wheat fell by 3.4% and 1.2% respectively.