On the eve of the data release, Tesla continues to surge. What is the market anticipating again?
Tesla's second-quarter delivery is expected to remain weak, marking the first consecutive year-on-year decline in history. However, the market may be more focused on the Robotaxi Day on August 8th and the second-quarter energy storage deployment
Overnight, Tesla rose more than 6% to $209.86, with a market value soaring by 280 billion yuan, reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time since January. Tesla has seen consecutive large gains recently, with a 19% increase in the past month.
On the news front, Tesla is set to release its second-quarter sales data on Tuesday, but analysts predict that the delivery situation remains bleak, with deliveries expected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, marking the first consecutive decline in sales for the second quarter in history.
More attention is being paid to Tesla's Robotaxi and energy storage business than delivery numbers.
Some analysts point out that Tesla's Robotaxi Day on August 8th could be a catalyst in the near future, potentially driving more growth for the company.
Others believe that the importance of the energy storage business will overshadow the weak delivery numbers, with Morgan Stanley predicting that Tesla's energy storage profitability will exceed that of its automotive business next year.
Delivery Situation Remains Bleak?
Analysts unanimously expect 438,019 vehicles, marking the first consecutive decline in the second quarter in history. This means that Tesla's delivery volume in the first half of this year is less than 1 million vehicles, with many hoping that Tesla's car deliveries will reach 2 million for the first time ever.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Tesla set a delivery record of 484,507 vehicles, while the total delivery volume in the first quarter of this year was 386,810 vehicles, even lower than the lowest expectations, marking the lowest quarterly delivery volume since the second quarter of 2022.
At the same time, many analysts also believe that Tesla's delivery volume will be below 436,000 vehicles. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who is bullish on Tesla in the long term, believes that the delivery numbers will be between 415,000 and 420,000.
RBC Capital has lowered its second-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla to 410,000 vehicles, a sharp 23% drop from its previous estimate of 533,000 vehicles; Barclays Bank also released an expectation of 415,000 vehicles last week.
Robotaxi Opens the Next Phase of Growth Story
The market speculates that Robotaxi Day on August 8th could be a catalyst in the near future, marking a key historical moment in Tesla's "growth story."
Speculation suggests that based on various actions and statements by Musk, Tesla ultimately hopes to transform Robotaxi into a shared travel platform similar to Uber.
A month before the company plans to announce its Robotaxi (self-driving taxi) on August 8th, Musk paid attention to Travis Kalanick, the founder of Uber, on social media. Although Kalanick left Uber in 2017, he has successful experience in developing a shared travel platformCurrently, Tesla is caught between two growth waves, with Robotaxi potentially driving more growth for the company in the future. Nevertheless, Tesla still needs to execute on these projects and strictly adhere to the expected timelines, something it has struggled with in the past.
Tesla's Energy Storage Business Benefits from AI Boom
As electric vehicle demand slows down in 2024 and the artificial intelligence boom dominates the market, some analysts are paying more attention to Tesla's energy storage data for the second quarter.
In addition to global delivery numbers, Tesla also announced strong energy storage deployments for the second quarter on Tuesday. The company deployed 4,053 megawatts of energy storage equipment in the first quarter, setting a new record.
Tesla currently offers solar panels, solar roofs, and energy walls for storage. The Tesla Megapack project, with a capacity of 360MWh, generates 500,000 MWh annually, providing power for 60,000 households.
Elon Musk stated at the shareholder meeting on June 13th that Tesla's development in energy storage and stationary battery pack deployments is progressing towards an annual growth rate target of 200% to 300%.
Renowned automotive analyst Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley released a report last week stating that Tesla's energy business could be uniquely positioned to benefit from the accelerated U.S. grid investments driven by the AI boom increasing energy demand.
Jonas values Tesla's energy business at $130 billion, equivalent to $36 per share. The analyst expects Tesla's energy business to generate around $7 billion in revenue this year, a 20% increase from 2023, with profit margins expected to surpass those of the automotive business in 2024.