With Jerome Powell unsurprisingly "dovish," the overnight Nasdaq hit a new high again, with Apple, equipped with AI "wings," recording six consecutive gains, firmly holding the position of market leader with a total market value of $3.51 trillion. However, Goldman Sachs sounded the alarm in its mid-year report, stating that it is now necessary to steer clear of popular AI stocks and begin diversifying investments. For friends holding Nasdaq funds such as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (159659), is it time to be fearful or greedy? Goldman Sachs' bearish reasons are twofold: first, the stock market gains are concentrated in tech leaders like Nvidia, and second, there is uncertainty in corporate profit growth
As Powell unsurprisingly "dovish," the overnight Nasdaq hit a new high again, with Apple, equipped with AI "wings," recording six consecutive gains, firmly holding the position of market leader with a total market value of $3.51 trillion.
However, at the same time, Goldman Sachs sounded the alarm in its mid-year report, stating the need to steer clear of popular AI stocks and start diversifying investments. So, for friends holding Nasdaq funds like the Nasdaq 100 ETF (159659), is it time to fear or be greedy?
Goldman's bearish reasons are twofold: first, the stock market gains are concentrated in tech leaders like Nvidia, and second, there is uncertainty in corporate profit growth. However, I believe that for friends who manage their positions well in the Nasdaq, such as around 20% exposure, there is no need to worry too much—
Firstly, whether in the U.S. or other markets, the trend of gains being concentrated in leading stocks has been evident this year. The Nasdaq 100 index has risen by 20% this year, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index has only seen a slight increase during the same period. The key theme of the U.S. stock market remains AI, as even Apple, a traditional value stock, has "evolved" into a growth stock due to a combination of price cuts and AI strategies, showing that investors still highly recognize the AI narrative.
As for corporate profits, Apple's surge is mainly due to optimistic market expectations for iPhone sales. In terms of news, Cook is confident in their AI, and the inventory for the iPhone 16 series has reached 90 million units, surpassing the 80 million units for the iPhone 15 series last year. Tesla's recent strong performance is also due to deliveries exceeding expectations, showing that as long as companies have profit support, the market still acknowledges them.
Regarding other popular AI stocks, they have recently been affected by negative news such as executive selling, including Nvidia, Amazon, and others. However, from the trend perspective, some of the negative news surrounding popular stocks has gradually been digested, and they are starting a new uptrend. Taking Nvidia as an example, it has been steadily rising back above $130 recently. Fundamentally, besides the high-performance B series, Nvidia's special H20 card for the domestic market is also undergoing rigorous testing. It is evident that Nvidia's moat in AI remains strong, making it difficult for both institutions and company executives to accurately predict performance. It is better to continue holding rather than speculating.
In summary, the current investment logic in the U.S. stock market still revolves around AI. With the background of applications and hardware taking turns to lead, optimism can still be maintained. For Nasdaq funds like the Nasdaq 100 ETF (159659), it remains a crucial aspect worth paying attention to in our investments.
Author: A-share Xiaowajiji