Luobo Kuai Pao has already rolled out to the sky, will Robotaxi go further?

Promising Future for "RoboTaxi"

Guosen Securities: Recently, "RoboTaxi" has been conducting fully autonomous driving demonstration applications in Beijing Yizhuang, Wuhan, and other places, expanding autonomous driving to urban core areas and scenarios.

Baidu's ApolloADFM, based on large-scale model technology, reconstructs autonomous driving to balance the safety and generalization of the technology, achieving a safety level more than 10 times higher than human drivers and covering complex urban-level scenarios.

Baidu's "RoboTaxi" has successfully tackled complex road scenarios in Wuhan, achieving full coverage of Wuhan city in all time and space scenarios, providing convenient unmanned travel services for nearly half of Wuhan residents.

The number of unmanned orders for "RoboTaxi" in Wuhan has seen explosive growth, with a peak of over 20 orders per day per vehicle. The satisfaction of Wuhan residents with riding in fully autonomous vehicles is generally high, and the market acceptance of unmanned autonomous taxi services is increasing.

Policies Accelerate the Implementation of Smart Driving

The smart driving industry is a national strategic development direction in various countries. The development of the smart driving industry can bring multidimensional improvements at the societal and industrial levels, and the rapid development of the smart driving industry has become an inevitable trend.

Recently, Beijing plans to support the use of autonomous driving vehicles for ride-hailing and car rental services in cities.

Shanghai recently issued the first batch of demonstration application licenses for driverless intelligent connected vehicles at the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference.

The first large-scale closed-loop intelligent connected vehicle test field in China, the Yangtze River Delta (Yancheng) Intelligent Connected Vehicle Test Field, will officially operate.

Twenty cities (consortiums) conducting pilot applications of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" for intelligent connected vehicles have been determined. The intensive introduction of policies is expected to accelerate the implementation pace of L3/L4 level intelligent driving technology and provide valuable opportunities for domestic manufacturers to transform and upgrade.

Tesla Robotaxi to be Launched Soon

Tesla will officially launch the Robotaxi on August 8, 2024, planning to transform private Tesla vehicles into a concept of shared travel services through autonomous driving technology.

The Robotaxi will no longer require traditional driver control components such as steering wheels and pedals. The vehicle will rely entirely on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, adopting a design without a steering wheel or pedals. Based on the Autopilot autonomous driving system, combined with various sensing technologies such as vision, radar, and ultrasonic, a detailed surrounding environment model has been constructed to ensure accurate and timely automatic driving decisions for vehicles in various road conditions.

In addition, Tesla has developed the FSD Full Self-Driving Suite, giving vehicles the ability to handle complex traffic situations. Tesla's Robotaxi project once again leads its peers, changing people's way of travel, creating new sources of income for vehicle owners, disrupting the traditional taxi industry, and leading the new era of autonomous driving

How is FSD technology performing?

Robotaxi will debut next month, and the smoothness optimization of FSD is crucial as Robotaxi will heavily rely on the performance and smoothness of FSD.

Earlier last month, Musk mentioned that the progress of FSD V12.4 was very significant and should be named FSD V13. However, due to focusing too much on training for intervention operations and neglecting training for normal driving, the release of version V12.4.2 was delayed due to insufficient driving smoothness.

Musk stated that the next-generation artificial intelligence model has great potential, with the number of parameters expected to increase by about 5 times, which is difficult to achieve without upgrading the vehicle's reasoning computer.

It is expected that the company will strive to release the major version FSD V12.5 simultaneously with the launch of Robotaxi, further enhancing driving smoothness and safety.

According to Tesla's 2023 Impact Report, the accident rate of vehicles with FSD enabled is significantly decreasing. In 2023, the accident rate per million miles driven was 0.21, a 32% decrease compared to the previous year. Although the accident rate of FSD is still 17% higher than Autopilot's accident rate and is influenced by various factors, the FSD accident rate is still lower than the U.S. average of 1.49 accidents per million miles.

Tesla will continue to accelerate the optimization and iteration pace of FSD, and the production and commercialization of Robotaxi are expected to drive a rapid increase in profitability.

Tesla's First Entry into Government Procurement Catalog May Benefit its Autonomous Driving Implementation

On July 4th, documents disclosed by the Jiangsu Provincial Government revealed that Tesla's Model Y has been included in the Jiangsu Provincial Government's vehicle procurement catalog and has been approved for use as an official vehicle in China, marking the first instance for a foreign car manufacturer. According to the official disclosure of the Jiangsu government procurement, "Jiangsu Province Party and Government Agencies, Institutions, and Group Organizations 2024-2025 New Energy Vehicle Framework Agreement Procurement Shortlist Announcement (III)", besides Tesla, the procurement shortlist also includes Aito M7, Voyah 11, and 60 other models.

Recommended Stocks to Watch:

A-shares: Zhongke Chuangda, Jingwei Hengrun, Siwei Tuxin, Qianfang Technology, Wanji Technology;

U.S. stocks: Tesla, Baidu, MBLY, etc.

Risk Warning: Unexpected delays in technological research and development, lower-than-expected market demand, unexpected policy changes