US inflation cools down significantly, how do senior officials at the Federal Reserve view this?

Data released on Thursday showed that inflation in the United States cooled across the board, with the month-on-month CPI in June turning negative for the first time in four years, and the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hitting a new low in over three years. Two senior officials from the Federal Reserve subsequently spoke out, indicating that progress is being made on inflation, but neither provided a specific timetable for rate cuts.

Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that recent data indicates progress being made by the Federal Reserve on inflation issues, with the June CPI data in the United States showing more encouraging progress. In the future, more evidence will be sought around "U.S. inflation falling towards 2%," hoping to see further moderation in overall demand conditions.

Regarding the labor market, Musalem's assessment is that it continues to show strength, but may not have achieved a full balance in labor supply and demand. Further declines in job vacancies could push up the unemployment rate.

Musalem expects the U.S. economy to grow by 1.5%-2.0% in 2024, with a probability of recession of about 20%.

Musalem also mentioned that AI has the potential to enhance productivity over the next 10 years.

Overall, Musalem believes that the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) monetary policy is restrictive, but not overly so. At the current stage, the current policy rate is appropriate. It is important to consider those periods of uncertainty.

On the same day, Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that given recent employment and inflation data, the latest situation suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to make adjustments to interest rates, but she did not provide a specific timetable for rate cuts.

Following the release of the June CPI data in the United States, Daly commented that it is clear that the risks of the dual mandate of stable inflation and full employment have been better balanced, and monetary policy is working. Based on the information received so far, including employment, inflation, GDP growth, and economic outlook data, she believes that some adjustments to monetary policy may be necessary.

Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, also made remarks on Thursday, but did not discuss the interest rate outlook of the Federal Reserve FOMC.

Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency," commented on the latest data, stating that mild inflation in the United States opens the door for a rate cut in September