Overnight US Stocks | Nasdaq falls for the second consecutive day, NVIDIA closes higher against the trend

According to the Wise Finance APP, the three major indices fell, with the Nasdaq falling for the second consecutive day. The Chicago Fed President stated that interest rates should be lowered as soon as possible, otherwise the labor market will deteriorate sharply.

[US Stocks] At the close, the Dow fell 533.06 points, or 1.29%, to 40665.02 points; the Nasdaq fell 125.70 points, or 0.70%, to 17871.22 points; the S&P 500 index fell 43.68 points, or 0.78%, to 5544.59 points. NVIDIA (NVDA.US) bucked the trend with a 2.6% increase, while Apple (AAPL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and Google (GOOG.US) all fell around 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell 1.2%, with JD.com (JD.US) dropping 2.58%.

[European Stocks] Major European indices were mixed, with the German DAX30 index falling by 0.45%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rising by 0.21%, the French CAC40 index rising by 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index falling by 0.44%.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.36%, the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia rose by 1.17%, and the VN30 index in Vietnam rose by 0.08%.

[Gold] COMEX August gold futures fell slightly by 0.59% to $2445.5 per ounce at the close, while COMEX September silver futures fell by 1.24% to $30.00 per ounce.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by 0.59% to $63753.2 per coin, while Ethereum rose by 1% to $3421.36 per coin.

[Crude Oil] NYMEX August WTI crude oil futures fell by $0.03, or 0.04%, to close at $82.82 per barrel. ICE September Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.03, or 0.04%, to close at $85.11 per barrel.

[Metals] London metals fell, with LME copper falling by over 2.58% to $9386 per ton. LME aluminum fell by $17 to $2385 per ton. LME zinc fell by over 1.33% to $2809 per ton. LME lead fell by over 1.57% to $2157 per ton. LME nickel fell by $34 to $16423 per ton. LME tin fell by over 4.08% to $31604 per ton.

[Macro News]

US Media: Biden gradually accepting the possibility of losing and withdrawing from the election. According to US media, several individuals close to Biden stated on Thursday that, succumbing to the growing demands of many anxious party members, they believe Biden has begun to accept the idea that he may not win the presidential election in November and may have to withdraw from the race. A close associate warned that the president has not yet made up his mind to withdraw from the race, as he has insisted for the past three weeks that there is almost nothing that could make him withdraw from the race But another person said, "Reality is coming," and it wouldn't be surprising if Biden soon announces his support for Vice President Kamala Harris to run for president. Many other Democrats with less close ties to the White House say that more and more people within the party believe that the president will soon soften his stance.

US Initial Jobless Claims Further Confirm Softening Labor Market. Last week, US initial jobless claims saw the largest increase since early May, with continued claims rising significantly, further confirming a softening labor market. In the week ending July 6, the number of continued claims for unemployment benefits increased by 20,000 to 1.87 million, the highest level since November 2021. At this time of year, weekly fluctuations in the number of unemployment benefit claims are significant, including holidays like Independence Day and schools closing for summer break.

Fed's Gulsbee: Fed Faces "Golden Road" Risk If It Doesn't Cut Rates Soon. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said that the central bank may need to cut borrowing costs soon to avoid further deterioration in the cooling labor market over the past few months. Goolsbee stated that despite the Fed's ongoing battle with inflation, several months of data improvement have convinced him that officials are back on track to lower the inflation rate to 2%. However, he noted that the labor market is "definitely a concern," pointing out that maintaining high interest rates while easing price pressures implies a "significant tightening" of monetary policy. When asked if officials would take the risk of going down the "golden road" as Goolsbee described—winning the battle against inflation without a significant rise in the unemployment rate—the Chicago Fed President immediately responded, "Yes." "Just look at the real federal funds rate—interest rates minus the inflation rate. "This is the highest level in decades," Goolsbee said in an interview. Goolsbee will vote as an alternate member of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Fed meeting later this month.

US Mortgage Rates Drop for Second Consecutive Week, Easing Pressure on Homebuyers. US mortgage rates have dropped for the second consecutive week. Freddie Mac said in a statement on Thursday that the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.77%, the lowest since mid-March, down from 6.89% last week. According to RedfinCorp, the decline in borrowing costs from highs is helping to drive down monthly housing payments from record highs. Redfin stated that buyers are also benefiting from an increase in supply, with total housing inventory approaching the highest level in about four years. Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu expects the increase in inventory to gradually exert downward pressure on price gains, and the drop in mortgage rates will help reduce borrowing costs, providing more assistance to potential homebuyers.

[Stock News]

Netflix (NFLX.US) Exceeds User Targets but Adopts Cautious Outlook for Next Quarter Performance. Thanks to crackdowns on password sharing and support from multiple films, Netflix announced on Thursday that it added over 8 million net paid subscribers in the second quarter, surpassing analysts' forecasts. However, Netflix also warned that user growth in the third quarter will be lower than the same period in 2023, when the crackdown on password sharing had just begun As of the end of June, the number of new registered users has pushed Netflix's global user base past 277 million. In addition, Wall Street investors have been closely monitoring the growth of Netflix's ad-supported services. Netflix stated that its ad-supported services membership grew by 34% compared to the previous quarter, but did not disclose how many users opted for this option. Furthermore, Netflix expects a 14% year-on-year increase in revenue for the third quarter.

Ming-Chi Kuo: Expectations for iPhone 16 orders remain largely unchanged. Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's latest post indicates that despite rumors of increased iPhone 16 orders following Apple's (AAPL.US) Worldwide Developers Conference, recent earnings conference calls from two major Apple suppliers (TSMC and Largan Precision) suggest that iPhone 16 orders may not have increased. TSMC stated that they did not see a sudden increase in sales, while Largan Precision mentioned that orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year. My understanding is that some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024, but from the perspective of EMS/assembly, the number of iPhone 16 orders has not changed significantly (around 87 million units), still slightly lower than the number of iPhone 15 orders in the second half of last year (around 91 million units). The increase in iPhone 16 orders for certain suppliers may be related to specific reasons within individual industries or components.

Tech giants like Google (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) launch the Secure AI Alliance. Google has launched the Confidential Computing Consortium (CoSAI), with founding members including Amazon (AMZN.US), Intel (INTC.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), IBM (IBM.US), Cisco (CSCO.US), Paypal (PYPL.US), OpenAI, AI startups Anthropic and Cohere, cybersecurity startups Chainguard, WIZ, GenLab, and others. Google pointed out in a blog post that artificial intelligence needs a secure framework and application standards to keep up with its rapid growth. This is also why they shared the Secure AI Framework (SAIF) last year. However, implementing any industry framework requires close collaboration with others. Therefore, Google has launched CoSAI in collaboration with industry peers.

【Major Ratings】

Fitch: Upgrades Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) rating to BBB-; outlook stable