Bank of America: If the US economy continues to cool down, US tech giants will face further pressure
Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, stated that if the US economy continues to cool down, the upward trend of large US technology stocks may further fade. Investors will shift towards stocks that have lagged behind expensive tech giants this year. Recent data shows global economic weakness, with large tech stocks only a bad non-farm payroll report away from losing their dominant position. Tech stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta Platforms have deviated, prompting investors to flock to small-cap stocks. Since July 10th, the market capitalization of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has evaporated by about $2.6 trillion. Hartnett mentioned that bullish investors still believe that the pullback is healthy
According to the information from Zhitong Finance, Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, stated that if the US economy continues to cool down, the upward trend of large US technology stocks may further fade. The strategist mentioned that signs of economic slowdown will drive investors to shift towards stocks that have lagged behind expensive tech giants this year. In a report on Friday, Hartnett noted that recent data indicates a "weak" global economy, with large tech stocks "on the verge of losing dominance" pending a poor non-farm payroll report.
Over the past two weeks, the upward trajectory of tech stocks such as Apple (AAPL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Nvidia (NVDA.US), and Meta Platforms (META.US) has deviated, as investors bet on the possibility of the Fed starting rate cuts soon and have been flocking to small-cap stocks. Since hitting a historic high on July 10, the Nasdaq 100 index, dominated by tech stocks, has evaporated about $2.6 trillion in market value, also due to concerns that massive investments in the field of artificial intelligence may not yield returns quickly.
However, Hartnett mentioned that the stock market bulls still believe that the pullback is "healthy" as the market has not broken through key levels. Since July 10, the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen by about 9%, but it has still risen by over 30% since hitting a low point in October 2023. US stock index futures rose on Friday, potentially regaining some lost ground.
In the week ending July 24, Bank of America's customized bull-bear indicator slightly rose to 6.9, reaching the highest level in over three years. Hartnett stated that if the indicator surpasses 8, it will send a reverse sell signal, triggered by an increase in fund managers' stock allocations and further decline in cash levels, with a rebound in lagging stocks leading to an improvement in market breadth