JPMorgan Chase: NVIDIA GB200 production capacity may slow down in the second half of 2024, expected to significantly expand in 2025

NVIDIA recently reported AI chip design flaws that may delay shipments. The latest report from Morgan Stanley pointed out that there are some challenges with NVIDIA's B100/B200N4 chips, mainly due to the need to slightly relax the performance threshold when two identical chips are placed in the B200CoWoS package; in addition, the yield of CoWoS-L remains low and unstable. However, no serious issues have been found that would lead to significant redesign or multi-quarter delays. Morgan Stanley believes that GB200 production capacity may slow down in the second half of 2024, but is expected to significantly expand in 2025. Upstream shipments are expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2024, but due to production issues with CoWoS-L, total shipments may be limited, with an estimated total shipment of GB200 between 400,000 to 500,000 units in 2024. H200 shipments are expected to grow slightly in the second half of 2024. The Blackwell series GPU shipments are expected to exceed 4.5 million units in 2025, but initial production capacity still faces challenges. Morgan Stanley stated that if GB200 production capacity cannot increase as scheduled, large-scale users may increase purchases of HGX B200A and GB200A Ultra