Breakfast | US stocks plummet, 2x long panic index ETF soars 84%

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US stocks plummet, 2x long panic index ETF soars 84%

The Dow fell nearly 1240 points or 3.1% in early trading, with the closing drop expanding to over a thousand points, the S&P index fell 4.2% at one point, the Nasdaq fell 6.4% at one point, and the three-day decline of major indices hit the deepest since June 2022. The 2x long panic index ETF (UVIX) surged 84%.

The Russell small-cap stocks fell the most by 5.5%, the chip stock index fell by about 7% before briefly turning higher, Apple fell by 4.8%, Tesla fell by 4.2%, the combined market value of the "Big Tech Seven" evaporated by $1.3 trillion in early trading, and the "fear index" VIX surged 181% to 65.73 at one point, hitting the highest level since the March 2020 pandemic.

The US dollar hit a seven-month low, US oil fell below $73 to a six-month low, the yen briefly rose 3.3% to break through 142, gold, silver, and copper all fell, Bitcoin briefly fell below $50,000, the 2/10-year US Treasury yield curve briefly ended its inversion, and the base bond yield plummeted to a more than one-year low in double digits.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell the most by 6.9%, but briefly turned higher at midday.

Chinese concept stocks rebound strongly

The Chinese concept index fell by 3.2% before closing higher, New Oriental rose by nearly 9%, and the offshore renminbi rose by 779 points to a more than one-year high.

US stocks stabilize after hours, S&P and Nasdaq futures rise by over 1%, yen falls by over 0.5%, chip stocks rebound after hours

S&P 500 futures expanded their gains to 1%, Nasdaq futures briefly rose by 1.3%, Dow futures are currently up by 0.6%. Russell 2000 futures rose by about 0.8%. Among popular tech stocks, after hours, Qualcomm is currently up by about 3%, NVIDIA by about 2.6%, AMD by about 2% (strong overnight rise of 1.75%), Tesla, TSMC, Intel, Micron, Microsoft, Meta up to 1.7%. The US dollar rose by 0.5% against the yen, at 144.91 yen.

Technology leveraged ETFs plummet, some by 60%, additional margin calls may trigger larger sell-offs

Investors heavily bet on a rebound in tech stocks last month, pouring billions of dollars into technology leveraged ETFs. However, these funds have suffered significant losses recently, with some falling by as much as 60%. Analysts point out that the biggest concern now is "forced selling," which could further drive down stock prices.

For example, the 3x long semiconductor ETF (SOXL) attracted as much as $2.8 billion in inflows in July, hitting a record high. However, as of last Friday's close, it has fallen by over 57% since July 10, with a nearly 20% drop in overnight trading on Monday before narrowing.

Originator of the "Sahm Rule": US economy is "very close" to a recession

US stocks faced panic selling at the opening on Monday, Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist who proposed the "Sahm Rule," stated that while the US has not yet entered a recession, it is "very close," and she predicts that Fed policymakers may adjust their strategies to address increasing risksThe July non-farm employment report shows that recruitment in the United States has slowed significantly, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in July, causing its three-month moving average to increase by 0.6% from the 12-month low, triggering the so-called Sam rule. According to the Sam rule, if the unemployment rate (based on a three-month moving average) rises by 0.5 percentage points from the previous year's low point, then an economic recession has begun. Since 1970, this indicator has had an accuracy rate of 100%.

Father of the "Bond King" Yardeni: Stock market may repeat the 1987-style crash

Yardeni believes that the current global stock market sell-off is similar to the 1987 crash. Although the market is concerned about a recession, a recession has not actually occurred. The sell-off is largely related to arbitrage trading unwinding; the danger is that this unwinding may evolve into some kind of financial crisis, but this is not his baseline expectation.

US stocks face panic selling, JPMorgan warns: Don't bottom fish, it's unwise to fight inertia

JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler believes that the recent market trend may be somewhat excessive, with the actual economic situation stronger than what is reflected in the performance of risk assets. However, trying to fight this market inertia is not a wise move. Investors may consider shifting towards tactically market-neutral or leaning towards net short positions.

Unfazed by record plunges, Morgan Stanley lists TSMC as a top pick, citing attractive valuation after sell-off

Morgan Stanley analysts are bullish on TSMC's quality and defensiveness, stating that price increases and continued AI capital expenditure strength are key catalysts for the stock. TSMC's Taiwan stock price fell nearly 10% on Monday, with its US stock initially falling nearly 11%, but closing down by 1.3%. It rebounded after hours and rose by nearly 2%.

Over $320 million worth of NVIDIA shares sold in July! Jensen Huang sets personal record for highest cash-out for two consecutive months

In July, Jensen Huang sold NVIDIA shares worth $323 million, breaking his personal record set in June when he sold nearly $170 million. Some analysts believe that Huang's timing of cashing out was just right before NVIDIA's sharp drop in August, catching the "tailwind" of the last surge in chip stocks. NVIDIA fell over 15% in early trading on Monday and is deep in bear market territory.

Google loses lawsuit! Largest antitrust case in twenty years in the US reveals judgment, will the search field change?

The US Department of Justice accused Google of paying over a hundred billion dollars to companies like Apple each year to maintain its default search engine position. After a federal judge in the US announced that Google is a monopolist in the search field, the decision on what penalties Google will face will determine whether Google will be required to split up or face increased restrictions on its business operations.

Cryptocurrency market plunges across the board, later narrowing losses along with US stocks

Analysis points out that every time Middle East conflicts escalate, Bitcoin experiences a sharp drop. It is expected that a similar drop will occur when the next "conflict" unfolds. Bitcoin briefly fell below $49,000. Ethereum briefly fell below $2,100, completely erasing its gains for the year.

Back in expansion territory! US July service PMI beats expectations, easing concerns of economic slowdown

On Monday, data released by the ISM showed that the US July ISM non-manufacturing index returned to expansion, breaking free from the most severe contraction in four years. Sub-indices for employment, new orders, and business activity all returned to expansion territory, providing a boost to the July dataThe U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July came in at 51.4, surpassing the expected 51, with the previous value in June at 48.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sector