S&P rose over 2%, the best in nearly two years, with the chip stock index up about 7%, the Nasdaq and Chinese concept stock index up 2.8%, and US Treasury yields against the Japanese yen falling for the third consecutive day

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell more than expected to 233,000, easing concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy. Investor confidence increased, leading to a strong opening for U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq rose by over 3% during the day, semiconductor stocks rose by about 7%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4%. Poor demand for the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction exacerbated the selling pressure on U.S. bonds, with short-term bond yields rising by 10 basis points at one point. Meanwhile, European stocks erased some of their losses towards the end of the session, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and crude oil, bitcoin, and gold also rose.

However, the number of continued jobless claims hit the highest level in nearly three years since November 2021. J.P. Morgan raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession from 25% to 35% this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its forecast from 15% to 25%, but believes that a recession can be avoided. Richmond Fed President Barkin said this year that the FOMC has time to assess whether the U.S. economy is normalizing, and the U.S. may face long-term labor shortages. Trump claimed that his intuition is stronger than Powell's and that the president should have some say in Fed policy.

U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the S&P posting its largest single-day gain in 21 months, the Nasdaq leading with a 2.87% increase, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 6.86%, and Nvidia up 6.13%:

• U.S. stock indices continued to rise and closed at daily highs. The S&P 500 rose by 2.30% to 5,319.31 points. The Dow closed up 1.76% or 683 points at 39,446.49 points. The Nasdaq closed up 2.87% at 16,660.02 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 3.06%. The Nasdaq Tech Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech stocks, rose by 3.78%. The Russell 2000 Index rose by 2.42%. The VIX fear index fell by 14.47% to 23.82.
• After hitting daily highs in the afternoon, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by over 3%; the S&P 500 large-cap index rose by nearly 2.4%; the Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, had risen by over 744 points or 1.9%; the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose by over 2.4%. The semiconductor index rose by 6.86%, and the China concept stock index rose by a maximum of 2.9%.

Nasdaq led the gains (best single-day performance since February 2023), S&P 500 posted its best single-day performance since November 2022

• U.S. industry ETFs closed higher across the board. The semiconductor ETF rose by over 6%, global aviation industry ETF, technology industry ETF, and global technology stock ETF all rose by nearly 4%, biotechnology index ETF and internet stock index ETF both rose by close to 3%, healthcare industry ETF, consumer discretionary ETF, energy industry ETF, banking industry ETF, regional banking ETF, and financial industry ETF all rose by around 2%.

• Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index closed higher. The information technology/technology sector rose by 3.31%, the telecommunications sector rose by 2.41%, while the industrial, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors also rose by up to 2.3%. The utilities sector had the lowest performance with a 0.15% increase.
• The "Tech Seven Sisters" collectively rebounded. NVIDIA led the gains with a 6.13% increase, surpassing the $100 mark again. Tesla rose by 3.69%, Apple by 1.66%, Meta by 4.24%, Google A by 1.94%, Amazon by 1.86%, and Microsoft by 1.07%.

The seven technology giants rebounded to yesterday's high point, but they are still in a downward trend for the week and have declined compared to before the release of last Friday's non-farm payroll data.

• Chip stocks surged across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 6.86%; the industry ETF SOXX rose by 6.9%; NVIDIA's double long ETF rose by 12.72%. Applied Materials rose by 6.74%, ASML ADR rose by 4.82%, Intel rose by 7.9%, and AMD rose by 5.95%.
• AI concept stocks rose collectively. "AI demon stock" AMD rose by 5.95%, while NVIDIA's AI voice company SoundHound AI rose by 21.16%, and BigBear.ai rose by 3.36%.
• Chinese concept stocks generally rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.8%. In popular Chinese concept stocks, NIO rose by 4.09%, Li Auto by 2.6%, and Bilibili fell by 2.54%.
• Gold and silver mining stocks rose. Newmont Mining rose by 5.08%, Harmony Gold, Hecla Mining, and ASM rose by up to 4.31%, Barrick Gold rose by over 3.1%, and the Gold Miners ETF GDX rose by over 2.4%
• Cryptocurrency concept stocks/blockchain concept stocks collectively rose. Double long Bitcoin ETF surged over 17%, Bitfarms rose by 22.02%, Stronghold rose by over 19.9%, Bit Digital rose by over 18.4%, double long Bitcoin ETF rose by over 17.2%, Canaan Technology ADR rose by about 9.7%, QETH in Ethereum ETF rose by over 9.6%, "Bitcoin holding giant" MicroStrategy rose by about 9.1%, Bitcoin strategy ETF rose by about 9.0%.
• Among other stocks with significant changes due to financial reports, (1) Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals surged over 13% intraday, closing up over 9%, leading the pack of weight-loss drug concept stocks, Viking Therapeutics rose by nearly 10%, Novo Nordisk ADR rose by nearly 8%, Shockwave Medical ADR narrowed its gains to over 1%. Eli Lilly's second-quarter revenue and profit far exceeded expectations due to strong sales of weight-loss drugs, raising full-year revenue guidance by $3 billion. (2) Novavax Pharmaceuticals opened low and surged by 9% after dropping over 17%, despite second-quarter performance falling short of expectations. (3) Sportswear retailer Under Armour closed up by 19%, marking the largest single-day gain since 2018, with an unexpected per-share profit and revenue exceeding expectations in the second quarter. (4) AI concept stock SoundHound, held by Nvidia, rose by nearly 12% before turning lower, with second-quarter adjusted EBITDA losses exceeding expectations. (5) In the media sector, Paramount Global announced a 15% workforce reduction in the U.S., rising over 5% after hours. Warner Bros. Discovery initially fell by nearly 13%, writing down $9.1 billion in TV network-related assets, with second-quarter revenue below expectations.
• On the news front, Amazon's $4 billion investment in Anthropic is facing a UK merger investigation. Apple plans to launch the smallest desktop Mac Mini ever this year and upgrade it to the M4 self-developed chip to support AI functions. AI concept stock Palantir rose by over 11% and will collaborate with Microsoft to sell AI capabilities to U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, with Microsoft rising by 1%. Delta Air Lines expects a software system failure to cause $380 million in direct losses in the third quarter, and the company will sue CrowdStrike and Microsoft over this issue.

Boosted by U.S. employment data, European stock markets saw a slight uptick in the final trading session, closing with mixed results:

• The Stoxx 600 in Europe opened slightly lower, mostly maintaining a downward trend throughout the day, with sectors seeing mixed movements, media and chemicals stocks down by 0.6%, while travel stocks rose by 1.28%. Boosted by U.S. employment data, European stocks saw a slight uptick towards the end of the session, closing up by 0.08%.
• Major regional indices had mixed movements, with the French index down by 0.26%, the UK index down by 0.27%, the Spanish index down by 0.39%, the Italian index down by 0.28%, and the German index up by 0.37%.
• Among other stocks with significant changes due to financial reports, German industrial giant Siemens reported quarterly operating profit better than expected, leading to a 2.09% rise in Siemens' European stocks

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell more than expected, easing concerns about the U.S. labor market and economic recession. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, closely related to the economic outlook, rose above the 4% mark. Poor demand for the 30-year Treasury bond auction led to increased selling pressure on U.S. bonds during midday trading, with bond yields hitting daily highs:

• U.S. Bonds: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by nearly 6 basis points to 4.023%, marking a three-day increase and returning to the level of last Thursday. The yield on the 30-year long bond rose by 5 basis points to 4.31%. The yields on the two-year and three-year U.S. short-term bonds rose by 10 basis points at one point. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 7.59 basis points at the close, reaching 4.0380%, trading in a range of 3.9126%-4.0794% during the session.
• Eurozone Bonds: The yield on the 10-year German bund, the benchmark for the Eurozone, fell slightly at the close. After the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data, it had a significant increase, but spent most of the day in a downward trend, with the two-year yield falling by over 1 basis point. The yield on the 10-year UK bond rose by about 3 basis points. The yield on the 10-year French government bond rose by 0.3 basis points, while the yields on the 10-year Italian, Spanish, and Greek government bonds rose or fell by 0.6, 0.2, and 0.3 basis points, respectively.

U.S. bond yields surged again, rising above the level before the release of last Friday's employment data (except for the two-year bond yield).

The Japanese yen fell for three consecutive days, helping to suppress volatility from arbitrage trading unwinding, leading to the U.S. dollar index hitting a daily high in early U.S. stock trading, recovering from last Friday's decline, while Bitcoin surged over 10% to surpass $60,000:

• U.S. Dollar: The DXY, a basket of six major currencies against the U.S. dollar, rose by 0.02% to 103.218 points, with an intraday trading range of 102.916-103.546 points. After the release of the U.S. weekly jobless claims report at 20:30 Beijing time, it rose significantly, reaching a high of 0.3% during the day. The Bloomberg dollar index fell by 0.19% to 1248.18 points, with an intraday trading range of 1252.52-1247.29 points.
• Most non-U.S. currencies fell. The euro against the U.S. dollar fell by 0.05% with a V-shaped trend after the U.S. job report was released, the British pound against the U.S. dollar rose by 0.41% maintaining its upward trend since the U.S. job report was released, and the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc rose by 0.53% holding onto its gains since the U.S. job report was released.

The Bloomberg dollar index ultimately fell slightly, and the ICE dollar index significantly narrowed its gains at the close

• Japanese Yen: The Japanese Yen fell by 0.6% to 147.53 against the US Dollar, breaking below the 147 level, with an intraday trading range of 145.44-147.54 Yen. The Euro rose by 0.33% against the Yen, at 160.75 Yen; the British Pound rose by 0.78%, at 187.637 Yen.
• On investment research strategies, Barclays stated that the Japanese Yen is expected to regain its safe-haven status after rebounding. The recent significant rise in the Yen indicates that its trend is once again synchronized with yield differentials. If global growth concerns lead to a stock market decline, the Yen will be boosted by its safe-haven asset status.
• Offshore Renminbi: The offshore Renminbi (CNH) fell by 109 points to 7.1842 against the US Dollar, marking a third consecutive day of decline and breaking below 7.18, with overall trading ranging from 7.1544 to 7.1852.
• Cryptocurrencies surged throughout the day and extended gains after the US stock market closed. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose by over 10%, breaking through the $60,000 and $61,000 levels successively, and recovering from the decline since last Saturday. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose by 13% and surpassed $2600.

Bitcoin surged significantly on Thursday, reaching $60,000 and recovering from the decline since last Saturday.

Due to lower-than-expected initial jobless claims in the US, easing concerns of a US recession and boosting oil demand prospects, coupled with escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices rose for the third consecutive day, closing up by over 1%, further moving away from lows seen in over six months:

• WTI Crude Oil: WTI September crude oil futures rose from $75.23 per barrel yesterday to $76.19 per barrel, with an intraday increase of nearly 1.28% or $0.96. During European stock trading, US oil reversed its earlier gains to a decline, dropping to a low of over 0.8% to $74.60 per barrel, then continued to rise, with US stocks rising over 1.7% above $76.5 per barrel after midday.

• Brent Crude Oil: Brent October crude oil futures rose from $78.33 per barrel yesterday to $79.16 per barrel, with an intraday increase of nearly 1.06% or $0.83. Brent oil followed a similar trend to US oil, dropping by nearly 0.9% during European stock trading below the $78 level, then rising over 1.3% above the $79 level after midday in US stocks.

• On investment research strategies, Citigroup stated that Brent crude oil prices may climb to the mid-$80s, partly due to geopolitical risks in North Africa and the Middle East. Other bullish factors include tight supply and demand until the end of August, potential disruptions from hurricanes, etc. If oil prices return to $80, it is advisable to sell.

• Natural Gas: US September natural gas futures closed up by 0.71%, at $2.1270 per million British thermal units. European natural gas prices surged, with the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rising by 4.28%, at 40.200 euros per megawatt-hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 4.43%, at 98.640 pence per therm Due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, oil prices rebounded on Thursday, wiping out all the losses from last Friday's non-farm day.

Safe-haven demand and bets on Fed rate cuts drive gold up over 1% and halt five-day decline:

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 1.43% to $2467.20 per ounce at the close. Spot gold in the Asian session initially hit a daily low with a slight decline of 0.08%, then continued to rise. After noon, it hit a daily high, rising over 1.8% to break above $2420.
• Silver: COMEX September silver futures rose 2.45% to $27.605 per ounce at the close. Spot silver in the Asian session initially fell by nearly 0.58%, then continued to rise. In early US trading, it hit a daily high, rising over 3.7% to nearly $28.
• Most London metals closed higher. The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" rose $25 to move away from a five-month low, closing at $8794 per ton. London zinc rose $64, up nearly 2.48%. London tin rose $503, up around 1.68%. However, London nickel fell $153, down about 0.94%, London aluminum fell $14, and London lead fell $2. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs stated that Asian copper inventories have surged to the highest level since mid-2018, and copper prices are expected to continue to decline.

Gold prices back above $2400.

[Updated on August 8th, 23:00]

On Thursday, August 8th, initial claims data eased investors' concerns about the labor market cooling too quickly, risk appetite rebounded, and major US stock indices collectively rose over 1%:

• Major US stock indices rose across the board. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by over 2.3%; the broad S&P 500 index rose by over 1.9%; the Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by over 570 points or 1.4%; the small-cap Russell 2000 index rose by over 1.7%.

• In early US trading, major industry ETFs rose. The semiconductor ETF rose by nearly 3%, the technology sector ETF and the global technology stock index ETF rose by nearly 2%.
• In terms of industry sectors, the S&P healthcare sector rose by over 2%, with multiple sectors including industrials, technology, energy, finance, telecommunications, consumer discretionary, and materials rising by over 1%. Real estate and utilities sectors rose by 0.27%, currently "performing the worst".
• The "Tech Seven Sisters" collectively rebounded. NVIDIA initially fell by over 1% but then rose by over 3.8%, reclaiming the $100 mark; "metaverse" Meta rose by over 3%, Amazon rose by over 1.5%, Google A rose by over 2.5%, Apple rose by over 1.5%, Microsoft rose by over 1.8%, and Tesla rose by over 3.1%

• Chip stocks rebounded strongly. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the industry ETF SOXX both rose more than 4.7% at one point, with NVIDIA's double long ETF rising more than 8.2%. TSMC's US stocks rose more than 4.6%; Micron Technology rose more than 5.3%.
• Most AI concept stocks rose. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by NVIDIA, surged more than 17.1% at one point, CrowdStrike rose more than 3.1%, Dell rose more than 3.5%, while Serve Robotics, an AI robot delivery company held by NVIDIA, fell more than 4.3% at one point. "AI demon stock" AMD fell more than 2.7% at one point, now slightly rebounding.
• Chinese concept stocks generally rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose more than 1.8% at one point. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, New Oriental rose more than 1% before falling more than 1.7%, Bilibili fell more than 3.7% at one point, while Pinduoduo and Baidu rose more than 3.7%, Tencent Holdings (ADR) rose more than 3.4%, Alibaba and JD.com both rose more than 2.5%.
• Among other stocks with significant changes due to financial reports, Lilly initially surged more than 13% before halving the gain. Second-quarter revenue and profit both significantly exceeded expectations, raising full-year performance guidance. Novavax Pharmaceuticals initially fell more than 16%, now erasing all losses and turning positive, with second-quarter performance below expectations. Robinhood rose more than 5.5% before falling more than 2.3%, with second-quarter revenue exceeding expectations.

【Updates before 21:50】

Global markets have not yet emerged from the gloom, with Asian stocks fluctuating and falling on Thursday, European stocks continuing to decline, and US stocks rising. The uncertainty in the global economy, especially in the United States, and the mysterious operations of the Bank of Japan have heightened investor concerns.

According to the summary of opinions of the Bank of Japan's July monetary policy meeting committee members released this morning, some officials still lean towards continuing rate hikes. One member stated that the 0.25% nominal interest rate is still very loose; another member stated that "a slight rate hike will not have a tightening effect."

The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 3 was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the US economy may still have resilience.

• Japanese stocks opened lower, rebounded during the session, then fell again. The Nikkei 225 Index closed down 0.7% at 34,831.15 points. The TOPIX Index in Japan closed down 1.1%.
• The US dollar briefly rose above 147 against the Japanese yen, up 0.18% intraday.
• South Korea's composite stock price index closed down 0.5%, with SK Hynix falling 3.48%.
• Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index fell 1.3% to 21,026.67 points. TSMC fell 2.0%.
• US 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 4% - Major European stock indices widened their losses, with the STOXX 600 index falling by nearly 1%. - In early trading, major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq rising by over 1%.

[21:30 Update]

In early U.S. trading, major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.31%, the S&P 500 index up by 0.99%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.45%.

Eli Lilly surged by over 13% in early trading, with second-quarter revenue and profits both significantly exceeding expectations, leading to an upward revision of full-year performance guidance.

Most tech stocks rebounded, with NVIDIA up by over 2%, AMD up by over 2%, and Microsoft up by over 1%.

[21:00 Update]

U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rising back above 4%.

[20:30 Update]

After the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data, U.S. stock index futures rose in the short term, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.01%, S&P 500 index futures up by 0.78%, and Dow Jones futures up by 0.38%;

U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by over 2 basis points to 3.970%.

The U.S. dollar briefly rose above 147 against the Japanese yen, up by 0.18% intraday.

[17:30 Update]

Major European stock indices extended their losses, with the STOXX 600 index, France's CAC 40 index, the UK's FTSE 100 index, and Italy's FTSE MIB index all falling by over 1%, while Germany's DAX index dropped by 0.6%.

U.S. stock index futures edged slightly lower, with Dow Jones futures down by 0.2%, S&P 500 index futures down by 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures slightly up by 0.06%.

【15:00 Update】

The Nikkei 225 Index closed down 0.7% at 34,831.15 points. The TOPIX Index in Japan closed down 1.1%.

The KOSPI Composite Stock Price Index in South Korea closed down 0.5%, with SK Hynix falling by 3.48%.

Major European stock indices opened slightly lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 Index falling by 0.58%, the German DAX Index falling by 0.4%, the French CAC 40 Index falling by 0.01%, and the UK's FTSE 100 Index falling by 0.73%.

【Below is the 12:00 content】

The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.2%, after falling by 2.5% earlier. The TOPIX Index also closed up 0.2%, after falling by 1.8% earlier.

The Japanese yen gave back its previous 0.9% gain, with the US dollar falling by 0.1% against the Japanese yen, now at 146.56 yen.

The KOSPI Composite Stock Price Index in South Korea fell slightly by 0.72%, with SK Hynix falling by 4.8%.

The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index in China fell by 1.3% to 21,026.67 points. TSMC fell by 2.0%.

The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng TECH Index in Hong Kong both narrowed their declines to less than 1%