Overnight US Stocks | Three major indexes rise together, recession worries ease, S&P sees its largest single-day gain in two years

According to the Wise Finance APP, on Thursday, all three major indices rose, with the S&P posting its largest single-day gain in 21 months and the Nasdaq leading with a 2.87% increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States dropped significantly last week, to some extent alleviating concerns about a recession in the U.S. Investors continue to focus on economic data, U.S. stock earnings reports, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

[U.S. Stocks] At the close, the Dow rose 683.04 points, or 1.76%, to 39,446.49 points; the Nasdaq rose 464.22 points, or 2.87%, to 16,660.02 points; the S&P 500 index rose 119.81 points, or 2.30%, to 5,319.31 points. The "Tech Seven Sisters" collectively rebounded. Nvidia (NVDA.US) led the gains with a 6.13% increase, reclaiming the $100 mark, Tesla (TSLA.US) rose by 3.69%, Apple (AAPL.US) by 1.66%, Meta (META.US) by 4.24%, Google (GOOGL.US) by nearly 2%, Amazon (AMZN.US) by 1.86%, and Microsoft (MSFT.US) by 1.07%.

[European Stocks] The German DAX30 index rose by 0.37%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.27%, the French CAC40 index fell by 0.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.01%.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.74%, the Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index fell by 0.24%, and the Vietnam VN30 index fell by 0.82%.

[Gold] COMEX December gold futures rose 1.43% to $2,467.20 per ounce at the close. COMEX September silver futures rose 2.45% to $27.605 per ounce at the close.

[Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin rose by over 10%, breaking through the $60,000 and $61,000 levels successively, and recovering from the decline since last Saturday. Ethereum rose by 13% and broke through $2,600.

[Crude Oil] Brent October crude oil futures rose by nearly 1.06% or $0.83 to $79.16 per barrel intraday; WTI September crude oil futures rose to $76.19 per barrel, up nearly 1.28% or $0.96 intraday.

[Metals] LME copper rose $25, moving away from a five-month low to $8,794 per ton. LME zinc rose by $64, up nearly 2.48%. LME tin rose by $503, up by about 1.68%. However, LME nickel fell by $153, down by about 0.94%, and LME aluminum fell by $14. LME lead fell by $2.

[Macro News]

The largest drop in U.S. initial jobless claims in a year helps alleviate recession concerns. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that for the week ending August 3, initial jobless claims decreased by 17,000 to 233,000, below the expected 240,000, marking the largest drop in nearly a year. The decrease in initial jobless claims may help convince the market that the U.S. labor market is only recovering to pre-pandemic trends rather than deteriorating rapidly. The non-farm payroll report released last week showed a significant reduction in hiring by employers in July, with the unemployment rate rising for the fourth consecutive month, triggering a key recession indicator Fed Official Gursby: More data needed to assess labor market conditions. Chicago Fed President Gursby reiterated the need for more data to understand whether the labor market is stabilizing or deteriorating beyond normal levels. He stated that the July non-farm payroll report released last week was "disappointing." When asked to respond to Trump's earlier comments about the U.S. heading into a depression, he mentioned that Fed officials do not comment on remarks made by politicians. "The job market is cooling, but is it leveling off to what we used to call full employment or stability, or will it continue to deteriorate?" Gursby said, "This is a very important question - for me, this is not a question that can be answered with just one month of data." "We need to focus not only on non-farm employment data, but also observe data from more than just one month."

FOMC Voter Balkin: Fed has time to assess the economy and decide on measures. Richmond Fed President and FOMC voter Balkin stated that the Fed has time to assess whether the U.S. economy is normalizing or softening in a way that requires officials to take stronger action. Balkin expressed optimism about future inflation data in the coming months and expected the recent broad-based decline in inflation to continue. "I think in a healthy economy, you have some time to figure out whether this economy is gradually normalizing, allowing you to normalize interest rates in a stable, prudent manner," Balkin said at an online event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics. "Or do you have to take action actively."

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fall to lowest level since May 2023. U.S. mortgage rates have dropped to the lowest level in over a year, providing relief to potential homebuyers. Freddie Mac stated on Thursday that the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.47%, the lowest level since May 2023, down from 6.73% last week. Mortgage rates have steadily declined after surpassing 7% earlier this year, boosting the real estate market. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that mortgage applications for home purchases rose for the first time in a month last week, with the refinancing index reaching a two-year high.

JPMorgan: If there is no urgency for the Fed to ease monetary policy, U.S. stocks still face risks. Analyst Lakos-Bujas from Morgan Stanley recently stated that the recent sharp decline in the U.S. stock market has washed away some market bubbles, but if U.S. economic growth continues to slow and the Fed has not shown an urgency to ease monetary policy, related holdings and valuations of U.S. stocks still face risks. Lakos-Bujas told clients that the stock market is no longer in a unilateral uptrend, but more of a two-way trend, with factors such as downside risks to economic growth, Fed action timing, crowded positions, high valuations, presidential elections, geopolitical uncertainties, etc., all impacting the market.

Trump: My intuition is stronger than Powell's, the President should have some say in Fed policy. On Thursday local time, Trump stated that the U.S. President should have some say in interest rates and monetary policy. Trump, without naming Powell, claimed that his intuition is stronger than that of Powell and other Fed officials Trump criticized Powell, saying it was "either a bit too early or a bit too late" to adjust interest rates. Last month, he said that if elected, he would allow Powell to complete his term as Federal Reserve Chairman, especially when he believed Powell was doing the right thing. Last week, Trump said that if elected, he would significantly cut interest rates.

[Stock News]

Soundhound AI (SOUN.US) reported a 54% revenue growth in Q2 but a 30% increase in losses, rising more than 10% after hours before turning negative. Soundhound's second-quarter revenue was $13.5 million, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 54%, still stronger than expected. EBITDA losses expanded by 30%, far exceeding expectations and ten times that of the first quarter. Due to the acquisition of AI software company Amelia AI, Soundhound has raised its revenue guidance for this year by up to 23%, expecting the company to turn losses into profits in the second half of next year after merging with Amelia AI. It is expected that the full-year revenue will exceed $80 million in 2024 and $150 million in 2025.

Apple (AAPL.US) plans to launch the smallest Mac desktop to date, equipped with the M4 chip. Apple is planning to release a new version of the Mac mini, which will be the smallest desktop computer the company has ever produced. This new product will be launched later this year and marks the first significant design change since Steve Jobs revamped the Mac mini in 2010. According to sources familiar with the matter, the new device is significantly smaller in size compared to the previous generation, with a volume similar to that of an Apple TV box. The updated mini is one of several new Macs set to be released in the coming months. The company is preparing to equip iMac desktops and MacBook Pros with the M4 chip, with the earliest launch expected later this year. MacBook Airs are in development and are planned for a spring release. The Mac Pro and Mac Studio are scheduled to be launched in the middle of next year.

"Antitrust" crackdown strikes again! UK reviews Amazon's (AMZN.US) $4 billion investment in Anthropic. Following the UK antitrust authority's investigation into the partnership between Google (GOOGL.US) and AI startup Anthropic, the agency has launched a similar investigation into Amazon (AMZN.US). The UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) stated that it is investigating whether the collaboration between Amazon and Anthropic could significantly weaken competition in the UK market. CMA stated that it has informed Amazon and Anthropic that it has "sufficient information" and has initiated the first phase of the investigation. The deadline for CMA to decide whether to proceed to the second phase of the investigation is October 4th