Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | US CPI data meets market expectations, anticipating a rate cut in September, precious metal prices continue to rise (with concept stocks)
Based on the recently released US CPI data, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at the upcoming September meeting has increased. The data shows that July CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.2%, in line with market expectations. Analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Meanwhile, the precious metals market continues to rise, with global gold ETFs seeing net inflows. Related precious metals companies include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others
The U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; the core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, which is basically in line with market expectations.
A Morgan Stanley research report stated that yesterday's U.S. CPI data gave the green light to the Fed to start cutting interest rates at the upcoming September meeting.
CICC believes that this data supports a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, but does not support a larger rate cut. Our baseline assumption is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December, and the current market pricing for rate cuts may be too aggressive.
The only question now is whether the Fed will start with a 50 basis point rate cut or a more moderate 25 basis point cut.
The decisive factor will depend on how much of a rebound there is in the August employment report.
An increase in employment of 160,000 to 200,000 may alleviate most of the concerns raised by the July employment report, while an increase of less than 100,000 could tilt the risk balance towards growth and lead to a larger rate cut.
The World Gold Council released a data report. The report shows that in July, global gold ETFs achieved net inflows for the third consecutive month.
Global physical gold ETF inflows for the month reached $3.7 billion, marking the strongest monthly performance since April 2022. Due to fund inflows and rising gold prices, total assets under management grew by 6% to $246 billion.
Lingxiu Finance's Chief Analyst Liu Siyuan stated in an interview with reporters that the recent adjustment of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan led to a "meltdown" halt in the Japanese stock market, further fueling market concerns. After the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy, it had a negative impact on U.S. stocks.
Unstable market expectations will further drive up medium to long-term gold prices, and gold prices may hit new historical highs.
Precious Metals Related Companies:
Zhaojin Mining (01818), Zijin Mining (02899), China Gold International (02099), Shandong Gold (01787), and Lao Pu Gold (06181), etc