The U.S. non-farm payroll figures may be significantly revised downward tonight, potentially reigniting concerns about economic recession

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the preliminary report of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the first quarter on Wednesday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. This report includes revised data on the number of new nonfarm jobs from April 2023 to March 2024.

The QCEW data is derived from unemployment insurance tax records from various states in the U.S., covering almost all employment positions. Therefore, the accuracy of this data is much higher than the monthly nonfarm payroll data released, but the timeliness is significantly lower.

The revised data is expected to be much lower than expected, which may trigger further calls for interest rate cuts as people are concerned that the Federal Reserve may have waited too long to start a easing cycle. JPMorgan Chase expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise down the number of new nonfarm jobs by 360,000 for the year ending in March; economists at Wells Fargo predict a downward revision of 600,000; and Goldman Sachs even anticipates that in the worst-case scenario, the revision could reach 1 million.

Earlier this month, the much lower-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data for July raised concerns about a recession and led to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. The revised nonfarm employment data to be released on Wednesday may indicate that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had significantly overestimated the number of new nonfarm jobs in the U.S., possibly to the greatest extent in 15 years. Therefore, investors will closely monitor the revised data released tonight.

Reports suggest that if the revision exceeds 501,000 people, it will be the largest downward revision in 15 years, indicating that the cooling of the U.S. labor market may last longer than originally thought.

Given the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to stabilize prices and promote maximum employment, this revised data may have some impact on Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Symposium on Friday.

Charu Chanana, head of foreign exchange strategy at Shengbao Bank, said that a significant downward revision of the data "may reignite concerns about weakening employment conditions." He stated that this is an issue that Powell may need to address, and if the U.S. nonfarm payroll report for August, to be released on September 6, shows significant weakness, it may support a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Peter Williams of 22V Research said, "The revised data is not expected to change our view of the current job market significantly, as the direction and overall magnitude of the revision have been known for some time. However, a particularly bad revision will strengthen the rationale for the Fed to implement loose policies."

Analysis shows that based on the data previously released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of new nonfarm jobs in the year from April 2023 to March 2024 was 2.9 million, averaging an increase of 242,000 jobs per month.

Even if the revision is as high as 1 million as predicted by Goldman Sachs, it would mean that the total number of new nonfarm jobs in this year would be 1.9 million, with an average monthly increase of about 158,000 jobs, which still falls within the range of healthy job growth levels as viewed by economists, despite a slowdown compared to the peak employment period after the COVID-19 pandemic Traders Await US Employment Data to Support US Treasury Rally

Data shows that as traders bet on the Fed cutting interest rates by as much as 100 basis points this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index has risen by 1.7% this month. The yield on the policy-sensitive two-year US Treasury note has dropped by over 25 basis points to slightly below 4%.

The soft July nonfarm payrolls report in the US triggered a significant rally in US Treasuries. With the Fed nearing the start of its easing cycle, the US labor market has become a focal point of attention. Economists expect that revised data on new nonfarm payrolls to be released this year will show a weaker economic growth momentum.

Chris Turner, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at ING, stated that these data "may suggest that the US labor market is far from as robust as initially thought." He added that in combination with the Fed meeting minutes to be released later on Wednesday evening Eastern Time, "the reasons for the Fed to cut rates and for the US dollar to weaken should increase."

Mohit Kumar, Chief Economist for Europe at Jefferies International, also mentioned that the revised data may indicate that the employment situation is not as resilient as previously believed, "but the market impact may be limited as the data is backward-looking and will not change the macro view."

Bond market traders are heavily betting on a rebound in US Treasuries due to the Fed rate cuts. Leveraged positions in US Treasury futures have risen to historic highs before the opening of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. Investors have also been preparing for a weaker US dollar, marking the most bearish sentiment towards the dollar since 2020