The breakthrough opportunity is coming soon! Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before November?
Bitcoin fluctuated between $50,000 and $72,000. Valma, CEO of the cryptocurrency research platform Hyblock Capital, pointed out that it may reach a new historical high during the September Fed rate cut and the November U.S. presidential election. The number of open positions has increased significantly, but has not yet reached expectations. Continuous growth is needed to drive price fluctuations. Valma believes that approaching the high point of $73,700 will attract more investors back to the market, leading to further price increases. Meanwhile, Telegram founder Durov was arrested due to regulatory investigations, causing market turbulence
Over the past few months, Bitcoin has been trading in the range of $50,000 to $72,000. When will it break out of this consolidation range? Shubh Varma, co-founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency research platform Hyblock Capital, says it will happen soon.
Will Bitcoin Hit a New High Again?
In an interview, Varma said, "Bitcoin is likely to reach a new all-time high at some point between September when the Fed starts a new rate-cutting cycle and November's U.S. presidential election."
The number of open interest contracts for Bitcoin futures this year, which is the total number of contracts outstanding at the end of a trading day, is much higher than last year. The open interest contract quantity reflects the level of trading activity in the market.
Varma stated that although open interest contracts have been increasing over the past few months, they have not yet reached the "expected level." He pointed out that investors need to see a significant increase in open interest contracts for Bitcoin prices to show directional volatility.
Fed funds rate futures trading already reflects the possibility of the Fed's first rate cut in four years in September. Varma noted that this, combined with the U.S. presidential election, could intensify volatility. He said this situation could be favorable for cryptocurrencies, especially if the expectation of a Fed rate cut ultimately becomes a tailwind for risk assets.
Varma believes that once Bitcoin approaches or surpasses the previous record of around $73,700, "it's like a free advertisement for retail investors."
He said, "They will come back to cryptocurrencies, open interest contract numbers will rise again, leading to further volatility and possibly another uptrend."
Traders Excited About Volatility
The recent arrest of Pavel Durov, co-founder of the popular social platform Telegram, in a regulatory investigation has also caused a huge shock in the cryptocurrency industry.
Reportedly, after being detained by French authorities at Paris airport, Toncoin, a cryptocurrency closely related to Telegram, has lost $3 billion since last Saturday, accounting for about 17% of its market value. According to CoinMarketCap, Toncoin is the ninth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
The specific reasons for Durov's arrest are not yet clear, but he is likely to face charges including terrorism, money laundering, fraud, drug trafficking, and dissemination of child pornography. If convicted of these charges, he could face up to 20 years in prison.
A representative of Telegram stated that the platform complies with EU law. The representative said in a message to MarketWatch, "It is absurd to claim that the platform or its owners should be held responsible for the misuse of the platform." Valma wrote in a recent report: "Despite the price drop of Toncoin and a large number of liquidations of derivative contracts linked to it, the number of open contracts for this token has still reached a historical high in the past few days, indicating that traders are still actively participating, perhaps seeking to capitalize on volatility."
In an interview, Valma said: "This gives us a clue that everyone is very eager for volatility."
He believes that when negative events related to major cryptocurrencies lead to a significant price drop, "usually you would see consolidation, as not many players are willing to take on such risks due to the high level of uncertainty. However, the trading activity of Toncoin has increased, indicating that the market is not just observing but actively seeking opportunities, even in an uncertain environment."