Market Insight | Hong Kong Property Stocks Generally Rise, Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up Again, Morgan Stanley Expects Hong Kong Residential Prices to Rebound by 5% Next Year
Hong Kong property stocks generally rose, with WHARF REIC up 3.71% and LINK REIT up 3.34%. As the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up, Morgan Stanley expects that a rate cut in the United States will benefit Hong Kong property market, with residential prices possibly rebounding by 5% next year. At the same time, the bank pointed out that residential prices this year are expected to fall by 8%. It is anticipated that a 100 basis point reduction in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate will drive a 5% increase in property developers' profits
According to the Wise Finance app, Hong Kong property stocks are generally rising. As of the time of publication, Wharf REIC (01997) rose by 3.71% to HKD 22.35; LINK REIT (00823) rose by 3.34% to HKD 37.1; Swire Properties (01972) rose by 2.93% to HKD 14.04; Cheung Kong Property (01113) rose by 2.29% to HKD 31.3; New World Development (00017) rose by 1.97% to HKD 6.74.
On the news front, there were 7.673 million job openings in the US in July, lower than the expected 8.1 million and the previous value of 8.184 million, hitting the lowest level since 2021. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September has risen to 44%. Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the market expects the US to cut interest rates, which is a positive factor for Hong Kong property developers. Currently, the valuation of property developers is at historically low levels, while providing sustainable high dividend yields.
Morgan Stanley expects that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) for one month will drop to 2.75% next year, and the actual mortgage rate under the most favorable rate (P-1.75%) will drop to 3.25%. The bank believes that compared to retail and office space, the residential market in Hong Kong will benefit more from the US rate cut. It is expected that Hong Kong residential property prices will rebound by 5% next year, after falling by 8% this year, which is a 30% drop from the peak. The bank estimates that for every 100 basis point drop in HIBOR, the average profit of Hong Kong property developers will increase by 5%