Overnight US Stocks | Three major indices performed strongly this week, with S&P and Nasdaq achieving their largest weekly gains of the year so far

According to Zhitong Finance, on Friday, the three major indices rose. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices both recorded their fifth consecutive trading day of gains. The U.S. stock market performed strongly this week, with the Dow rising by 2.6% for the week. The S&P 500 index rose by 4.02%, and the Nasdaq surged by 5.95%, both achieving their largest weekly gains so far this year.

[U.S. Stocks] As of the time of publication, the Dow rose by 297.01 points, or 0.72%, to 41,393.78 points; the Nasdaq rose by 114.30 points, or 0.65%, to 17,683.98 points; the S&P 500 index rose by 30.26 points, or 0.54%, to 5,626.02 points. Uber (UBER.US) rose by 6.3%, expanding its partnership with Google's self-driving car division Waymo. Oracle (ORCL.US) rose by 7.4% as the company raised its revenue guidance for the next fiscal year. Adobe (ADBE.US) fell by 9% as its performance guidance fell short of expectations, causing market concerns about AI revenue.

[European Stocks] The German DAX30 index rose by 189.81 points, or 1.03%, to 18,697.45 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 31.39 points, or 0.38%, to 8,272.36 points; the French CAC40 index rose by 30.18 points, or 0.41%, to 7,465.25 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 29.27 points, or 0.61%, to 4,843.35 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose by 135.41 points, or 1.19%, to 11,535.61 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 103.22 points, or 0.31%, to 33,557.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.68%, the Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index rose by 0.18%, and the Vietnam VN30 index fell by 0.26%.

[Gold] COMEX December gold futures rose by 1.08% to $2,608.40 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 3.31%.

[Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin rose by 0.7% to $57,981.9, while Ethereum rose by 0.16% to $2,354.12.

[Crude Oil] New York Mercantile Exchange October WTI crude oil futures fell by 32 cents, or 0.46%, to close at $68.65 per barrel, with a weekly gain of about 1.45%. Brent November crude oil futures fell by $0.36, or 0.50%, to $71.61 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 0.77%.

[Metals] Most London metals rose, with nickel falling by over 1.2%; zinc rising by over 1.6%, aluminum rising by over 2.4%, and copper rising by 0.56%.

[Macro News]

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Rises to a New High Since May But Remains Cautious. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September in the United States was 69, higher than the expected 68.5 and the previous value of 67.9. The Consumer Confidence Index has risen to the highest level since May 2024, increasing for the second consecutive month by about 2% compared to August. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, stated that the Consumer Confidence Index has reached the highest level since May 2024, increasing for the second consecutive month by about 2% compared to August The rise in consumer confidence index is mainly due to the improvement in the purchase conditions of durable goods, as consumers believe prices are more favorable. Although views on the labor market have slightly weakened, expectations for personal finances and the economy have improved. Currently, the consumer confidence index is about 40% higher than the low point in June 2022. However, due to the significant uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. election, consumers remain cautious. More and more Republicans and Democrats now expect Harris to win. Divergent views on the economic impact of Harris becoming president have widened the gap in the consumer confidence index between the two parties.

The U.S. import price index in August recorded the largest drop in 8 months. Due to declines in fuel and food prices, the U.S. import price index in August saw the largest drop in eight months, indicating that domestic inflation will continue to recede in the coming months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that the import price index fell by 0.3% in August, the largest drop since December 2023, while the unadjusted import prices rose by 0.1% in July. Over the 12 months ending in August, the import price index rose by 0.8% following a 1.7% increase in July. Government data released this week showed moderate increases in CPI and PPI in August, but there is still some stickiness in potential inflation. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will start the long-awaited easing cycle next Wednesday, with a 25 basis point rate cut almost certain. Expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut were dashed due to stable employment market conditions and still warm core inflation data.

Goldman Sachs: Still expects a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated their expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with rate cuts expected at every remaining meeting this year (November and December). In contrast, speculation about a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve has resurfaced. Former New York Fed President Dudley said on Thursday that there is a high probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting next week. Investors reacted significantly on Friday to articles in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, both emphasizing that the initial rate cut could be a difficult decision for Fed officials, sparking speculation about a larger rate cut.

J.P. Morgan reiterates its expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Amid declining inflation and weak job data, J.P. Morgan economists reiterated their expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at next week's policy meeting. "What the Fed should do next week is clear: cut rates by 50 basis points to adapt to changes in the risk balance," wrote the bank's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli in a report on Friday. Feroli expects the median forecast for the policy rate at the end of this year by the Fed to be 100 basis points lower than in June, implying two more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024; he expects the median forecast for the end of 2025 to be lowered by 150 basis points. Feroli wrote that if the Fed only cuts rates by 25 basis points next week, the median rate cut for this year may be only 75 basis points 【Stock News】

Tesla (TSLA.US) CEO Musk's X platform is reportedly set to escape the impact of the EU Digital Markets Act as its scale is not yet large enough. Musk's social media platform X is poised to avoid the impact of a landmark law aimed at curbing tech giants in the EU, as regulators have deemed that the platform's influence in the EU market is not significant enough. According to sources familiar with the matter, the European Commission's investigation into the platform is nearing completion, and is preparing to conclude that it does not fall within the scope of the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA). X will bypass many provisions of the DMA because its services are not yet powerful enough for commercial users and have not reached a specific revenue threshold. They added that the European Commission may announce the investigation results in October. The DMA sets out a series of requirements for companies such as Google Search, Apple's Safari, Amazon, and Meta. This is aimed at preventing tech giants from violating competition laws, with fines of up to 10% of a company's global revenue for repeated violations, and fines of up to 20% for repeated violations.

Boeing Company (BA.US) takes cash-saving measures as 33,000 blue-collar workers go on strike. On Friday, Boeing's blue-collar workers in the Pacific Northwest walked the picket line instead of building airplanes, as they unanimously rejected a proposed contract that would have raised their wages by 25% over four years. Around 33,000 mechanics participated in the strike, which is not expected to immediately disrupt airline flights but could disrupt production of Boeing's best-selling jetliners. The strike marks another setback for the company, which has already faced billions of dollars in financial losses and damaged reputation. Boeing stated on Friday that it is taking cash-saving measures, while its CEO is working to reach a contract that factory workers can accept to join the union. During Friday's trading session, Boeing's stock fell over 3%, bringing its year-to-date decline to around 40%.

【Major Rating Updates】

Oppenheimer: Downgrades Moderna (MRNA.US) stock rating to "Market Perform"