Overnight US Stocks | Dow Jones hits a new all-time high, Apple drops by 2.78%

According to CNBC, on Monday, the three major indices showed mixed movements, with the Dow hitting a new high and the S&P 500 approaching its historical peak. Investors are awaiting the September monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. During Monday's trading session, the Dow rose to a high of 41,733.97 points, setting a new intraday record.

[US Stocks] As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 228.30 points, or 0.55%, to 41,622.08 points; the Nasdaq fell by 91.85 points, or 0.52%, to 17,592.13 points; the S&P 500 Index increased by 7.07 points, or 0.13%, to 5,633.09 points. Apple (AAPL.US) dropped by 2.78%. Analysts from companies such as Bank of America and JP Morgan previously indicated that the shipping times may suggest lower demand for the iPhone 16 Pro model compared to the previous year. Popular Chinese concept stocks had mixed performances, with Pinduoduo (PDD.US) rising by 2.33%, Baidu (BIDU.US) rising by 0.51%, and Nio (NIO.US) falling by 2.61%.

[European Stocks] The German DAX 30 Index fell by 42.66 points, or 0.23%, to 18,646.15 points; the UK's FTSE 100 Index rose by 5.39 points, or 0.07%, to 8,278.48 points; the French CAC 40 Index dropped by 15.81 points, or 0.21%, to 7,449.44 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell by 15.54 points, or 0.32%, to 4,828.45 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 Index rose by 44.75 points, or 0.39%, to 11,584.95 points; and the Italian FTSE MIB Index fell by 4.47 points, or 0.01%, to 33,564.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Markets] Most Asia-Pacific markets were closed for holidays, with the Vietnam VN30 Index falling by 1%.

[Gold] COMEX gold futures remained relatively flat, trading at $2,611.00 per ounce, reaching as high as $2,617.40 at 14:46; COMEX silver futures rose by 0.07% to $31.095 per ounce, reaching as high as $31.460 at 13:58.

[Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin rose by 0.7% to $57,981.9, while Ethereum rose by 0.16% to $2,354.12.

[Crude Oil] NYMEX WTI crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $1.44, or 2.1%, to close at $70.09 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose by $1.14, with an increase of over 1.59%, to $72.75 per barrel.

[Metals] London metals rose, with nickel up over 2.3%, zinc up 1.39%, aluminum up 1.86%, and copper up 0.75%.

[Macro News]

New York Fed: Manufacturing Shows Some Improvement in September, Employment Remains Weak. According to responses from businesses to the September 2024 manufacturing survey, commercial activity in New York State saw growth for the first time in nearly a year. The New York Fed's manufacturing index for September in the US recorded 11.5. The survey indicated a rise in new orders, significant growth in shipments, stable delivery times and supplies, and inventory levels trending towards stability The labor market remains weak, with moderate job contraction and stable average weekly working hours. The speed of increase in input and selling prices has hardly changed. Despite the capital expenditure index falling below zero for the first time since 2020, businesses have become more optimistic about the outlook for the coming months.

Top three at the Fed: The Fed should make a "big move" now, and I believe they will. Former New York Fed Chair Dudley said on Monday that the Fed faces a key decision at this week's meeting: whether to cut rates by 25 basis points or directly cut rates by 50 basis points to curb economic recession. He personally believes that the logic of a 50 basis point rate cut is more convincing. Dudley also believes that Fed Chair Powell supports taking aggressive action, as he mentioned at the Jackson Hole meeting last month that further softening in the labor market is "unwelcome," and the employment market does seem to be further deteriorating. Additionally, monetary policy is in a tight position when it should be neutral or loose. A larger rate cut would allow the Fed to align its dot plot projections more easily with market expectations, rather than throwing out an unsupportable and market-unfriendly surprise.

Traders currently price in a higher probability of a 50BP rate cut by the Fed in September than 25BP. Bond traders currently believe that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points at this week's meeting is higher than 25 basis points. Pricing in derivatives related to Fed rate decisions shows that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut exceeds 50%. This has pushed the yield on the US 2-year Treasury back to its lowest level in two years and dragged the US dollar index to its lowest level since January. Investors are conflicted about how much policy support the economy needs and what signal the Fed's decision to start a loose cycle with a significant rate cut will send. Philip Marey, senior US strategist at Rabobank, wrote, "This is a critical moment, and I expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, although Tuesday's retail sales could change this forecast."

Biden's chief economic advisor plays down inflation risks, says rate cuts will help reduce housing costs. As policymakers shift their focus to protecting the job market, President Biden's chief economic advisor has downplayed the risk of reigniting inflation. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Brainard said on Monday that the US economy has reached a "turning point" and hinted that lowering market rates could help address housing cost issues. Brainard said in a speech to the Foreign Relations Committee, "Inflation is returning to near-normal levels, and it is very important to maintain the significant progress we have made in the labor market." When asked about future inflation risks, she pointed out the impact of housing on the Consumer Price Index and described it as "the thorniest issue." She said that excluding housing, the US Consumer Price Index has only risen by about 1.8%. "Ultimately, we do need more housing to improve affordability," she said. "This is more likely in a market environment with more favorable interest rates." Foreign media: Warren and other Democratic senators urge the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this week. Three Democratic senators in the United States urged Fed Chairman Powell and other policymakers to significantly lower the benchmark interest rate, including a 75 basis point cut this week, to protect the U.S. economy from potential harm. "If the Fed is too cautious in cutting interest rates, it will unnecessarily put our economy at risk of recession," Senators Elizabeth Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse, and John Hickenlooper said in a letter to Powell on Monday. "The committee must consider more aggressively 'front-loading' rate cuts to mitigate potential risks facing the labor market." This letter highlights the tricky political backdrop the central bank faces as it prepares for its first rate cut since 2020 to boost a weakening job market. While Fed officials have repeatedly stated that policy decisions will not be influenced by partisan factors, they still face harsh scrutiny from multiple political perspectives.

[Stock News]

Microsoft (MSFT.US) announces quarterly dividend increase and new stock buyback plan. Microsoft announced on Monday that its board of directors declared a dividend of $0.83 per share, an increase of 8 cents or 10% from the previous quarter. The dividend will be paid on December 12, 2024, to shareholders of record as of November 21, 2024. The ex-dividend date will be November 21, 2024. The board also approved a new stock buyback plan authorizing up to $60 billion in stock repurchases. This new stock buyback plan, which has no expiration date, can be terminated at any time. In addition, the company announced the date of the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting, which will be held on December 10, 2024.

Boeing (BA.US) freezes hiring and cuts costs amid strike disruptions. Boeing announced comprehensive cost-cutting measures, including freezing hiring and suspending non-essential employee travel, to conserve cash in response to a strike by over 30,000 factory workers. The strike by factory workers, who overwhelmingly rejected a preliminary labor agreement and went on strike, began on Friday morning. The striking workers are mainly concentrated in the Seattle area. "We are sincerely working to reach a new contract agreement that reflects their feedback and restores operations," Chief Financial Officer Brian West said in an employee report on Monday. However, our business is in a difficult period. This strike has significantly harmed our recovery, and we must take necessary actions to preserve cash and defend our collective future.

Intel (INTC.US) to customize AI chips for Amazon (AMZN.US). Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has identified Amazon's AWS as a customer for the company's manufacturing business, which could bring business to its factories being built in the United States and help turn around the struggling chipmaker. According to a statement on Monday, Intel and AWS will jointly invest in a custom chip for artificial intelligence computing within a "multi-year, multi-billion-dollar framework." This work will rely on Intel's 18A process, an advanced chip manufacturing technology "The statement today is of great significance," Gelsinger said in an interview. "This is a very visionary customer with very mature design capabilities."