Robotaxi is approaching, and Tesla's stock price is finally rising

Tesla's stock price has been rising recently, surging by 7.3% last Thursday, nearly 5% overnight, and up nearly 2% before the deadline.

Tesla Robotaxi: Set to Debut on October 10th

On September 11th, Tesla's official X account announced that an event will be held in Los Angeles on October 10th, with a ticket lottery for shareholders. Musk previously stated during an earnings call that Tesla Robotaxi will be launched on October 10th. Musk also affirmed on social media that October 10th will be the most important day for Tesla since the release of Model 3.

With a high cost-effective travel experience, continuous commercial trials both domestically and internationally, Tesla Robotaxi may debut at the 10/10 event. Cost-effectiveness is the core competitive advantage of Robotaxi: Musk mentioned in 2019 that the cost per mile of Robotaxi is only $0.18, while the cost of a human-driven taxi is $2-3 per mile.

This has led to vigorous commercial trials of Robotaxi both domestically and internationally:

In China, as of mid-July, over 50 cities have issued licenses for autonomous driving road tests. For example, in Wuhan, by June 2024, the cumulative service orders for autonomous driving in Wuhan had exceeded 1.58 million, serving over 1.98 million people; in the first half of the year alone, the service volume of autonomous driving in Wuhan had surpassed the entire year of 2023. According to calculations by CyberAuto, Baidu's daily cost per vehicle in Wuhan is around 308 yuan.

While overseas, on October 10th, Tesla is also expected to launch Robotaxi, supported by the maturity of Tesla's FSD iteration and cost reduction per Robotaxi:

1. FSD: During the second quarter of 2024 earnings call, Musk stated that Tesla cannot start providing unmanned ride-hailing services to customers until FSD can be used without human supervision. Tesla stated in its earnings report released on Tuesday, "The deployment time of Robotaxi depends on technological progress and regulatory approval."
2. Ultimate Cost Reduction: According to Autohome, through improvements in exterior design and assembly technology, the unit price of Tesla Robotaxi may drop to below 150,000. In addition, according to Musk's vision, consumers who purchase Robotaxi/Model 2 can not only use it for personal transportation but also allow the car to operate as a taxi, completely overturning the past Robotaxi industry's business model of "self-operated, self-purchased, and self-operated."

Tesla FSD Enters China: Set to Debut in the First Quarter of Next Year

On September 5th, Tesla's official account "Tesla AI" announced on social media that Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, pending regulatory approval. According to a blog post by Tesla's official account, FSD is continuously improving towards its goal:

Released FSDV12.5.2 in September, with a 3x improvement in takeover rate;

Released HW3.0 platform V12.5.2, and unified with 4.0 model;Pushing for true intelligent summoning;

Pushing for Cybertruck automatic parking;

Launching attention detection based on sunglasses;

Pushing for high-speed end-to-end;

Pushing for Cybertruck's FSD.

In October, Tesla is expected to push FSD reverse parking and spot-to-spot capabilities; FSDV13 average takeover rate improved 6 times.

Investment Advice:

Whether it is the launch of Tesla Robotaxi or the expansion of FSD operations from North America to China and Europe, the key behind it all lies in the continuous iteration of Tesla FSD and the continuous improvement of end-to-end autonomous driving. The development of domain controllers, cameras, and other core intelligent driving components, as well as the construction of localized computing power after entering China, rely on the support of the domestic intelligent driving industry. With recent catalytic events, it is recommended to focus on automotive intelligent driving hardware.

Risk Warning:

Lower-than-expected demand for automobiles, risks of changes in technological paths, intensified industry competition, and internal competition.

Combined from Debon Securities.