Is the US stock market going to experience big ups and downs? Goldman Sachs says October typically sees a rebound in volatility, and the next few weeks are crucial

Over the past three months, the sharp decline in trading volume of the AI "darling" NVIDIA has dragged down the nominal options trading volume of individual stocks in the US stock market. Goldman Sachs' options expert John Marshall believes that this indicates a decrease in risk appetite for retail and hedge fund investors.

However, this sluggish trading situation may change soon. As every October, the volatility of the US stock market usually experiences a seasonal rebound, so there is potential for volatility to rise.

Marshall pointed out that Goldman Sachs found that from 1996 to 2023, the average nominal daily trading volume of stocks and options peaks every October. Since October is the earnings season, listed companies often manage their performance to the end of each calendar year and provide performance guidance for the next year, making the coming weeks an important period for trading activity.

In addition to corporate earnings, Goldman Sachs also noted over 300 key non-profit catalysts across various industries. Marshall mentioned some key events, such as the US CPI, Tesla's autonomous driving taxi Robotaxi launch event, AMD's AI Day event, and many other companies' analyst day events.

Currently, including Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), and Tesla, the options trading of the "Big Seven" tech giants in the US stock market accounts for about 60% of all S&P 500 options trading volume. In recent weeks, apart from NVIDIA, the trading volume of other tech giants has been increasing.

Among them, Tesla stands out, with its options accounting for 17% of the S&P options trading volume, surpassing NVIDIA whose options trading volume accounts for 14%.

A Wall Street News article this Wednesday mentioned that Wall Street institutions are optimistic about Tesla's third-quarter performance. Based on July's global electric vehicle sales data and August's car registration/production data in Europe and China, Barclays analyst Dan Levy estimates that Tesla's third-quarter deliveries will be around 470,000 vehicles, significantly higher than the market's general expectation of 461,000 vehicles.

Moreover, Levy pointed out that the growth in Tesla's third-quarter car sales is almost entirely driven by the Chinese market. He believes that strong delivery data will help maintain positive market sentiment until Tesla's autonomous driving taxi Robotaxi is released on October 10th, which can at least avoid potential progress in stock price being affected by recent fundamental issues.

Some analysts also believe that the release of Robotaxi will be a key turning point for Tesla, as Tesla is shifting from traditional car manufacturing to focusing on autonomous driving technology, partly relying on its Dojo AI supercomputer for support.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the details revealed at the Robotaxi launch event are crucial. Investors will focus on key areas including the timetable for Robotaxi to start commercial operations (including technical readiness and considerations in operations/regulation/logistics), as well as business prospects (including how Tesla's cost structure compares to competitors) Goldman Sachs also mentioned that investors have long been anticipating the new low-cost Tesla model, which may be on the agenda at the Robotaxi launch event in October