TF SECURITIES: iPhone 16 waiting time shortened partially affected by last year's supply-side disruptions, remains optimistic about Apple's three-year innovation cycle

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, TF SECURITIES released a research report stating that the waiting time for the launch of the iPhone 16 has been shortened, partly due to the supply-side disturbances from the same period last year. In the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about demand. The team believes that this year's new iPhone sales volume will be similar to last year's, with a higher popularity for high-end models in the overall product structure. They continue to be optimistic about the three-year innovation cycle of Apple boosting the performance of Apple suppliers.

Apple: The waiting time for the launch of the iPhone 16 has been shortened. TF SECURITIES believes that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about demand in the short term due to the supply-side disturbances from the same period last year. They believe that this year's new iPhone sales volume will be similar to last year's, with a higher popularity for high-end models in the overall product structure. They continue to be optimistic about the three-year innovation cycle of Apple boosting the performance of Apple suppliers.

Smartphones: 1) Market: According to the latest quarterly forecast report on smartphones released by IDC on September 11, it is estimated that the shipment volume of foldable screen smartphones in China will reach approximately 10.68 million units in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 52.4%. By 2028, the shipment volume of foldable screen smartphones in China is expected to exceed 17 million units, with a five-year compound growth rate of 19.8%. IDC predicts that the future foldable screen smartphone market in China will long-term occupy around 40% of the global market share. 2) Foldable Screen: Huawei unveiled the Mate XT extraordinary master three-fold smartphone at the Extraordinary Brand Ceremony and HarmonyOS Smart Travel new product launch event. The screen uses multi-directional flexible materials, with the outer folding part resistant to stretching, the inner folding part resistant to compression, and the surface using non-Newtonian fluid materials to achieve double impact resistance. The inner side features the industry's largest UTG glass. The folding system is equipped with the "Huawei Tian Gong Hinge System," achieving dual-track linkage, combining an outer fold and an inner fold, using a "Z" shaped design. The Huawei three-fold smartphone offers multiple storage versions such as 16GB+256GB, 16GB+1TB, with prices starting from 19,999 yuan.

PC: In terms of new machines, Lenovo's YOGA Air15Aura AI Yuanqi Edition laptop is the first globally to be equipped with the second-generation Intel Core Ultra processor, using Lenovo's smallest motherboard to create AIPC; MSI showcased the Prestige/Summit laptops, featuring the new Windows 11 AI+PC laptops with Intel Core Ultra 200V series processors. This model is made of magnesium-aluminum alloy, weighs about 1.5kg, and supports various AI functions. The Summit13AI+Evo is mainly targeted at the business sector.

Panels: 1) The price decline of TV panels narrowed in September. Leading panel factories may suspend production in October, and prices may stabilize. If this is eventually implemented, panel manufacturers' inventory levels are expected to decrease, while driving the supply-demand environment from loose to balanced, playing a key role in price stabilization. 2) Medium-sized: Hehui Optoelectronics has mass-produced and shipped the first domestic 27-inch 4K AMOLED desktop display panel, expanding the application scenarios of AMOLED displays In the field of desktop monitors, Visionox has announced that it has successfully developed the first domestic 27-inch 4K AMOLED desktop monitor panel, and the product is currently in mass production and delivery to customers.

In terms of small size, LTPO OLED has lower power consumption, and TF Securities believes it may become the preferred screen display solution for smartphones under the generative AI wave. Compared to LTPS OLED, LTPO OLED has lower leakage current and can operate at low power consumption below a refresh rate of 30Hz. Omdia predicts that by 2031, the demand for LTPO OLED display panels will reach 520 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.0%. Its market share in OLED smartphone panel shipments is expected to reach 52.0%, surpassing low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) OLED.

In terms of upstream aspects, mainland China's share in the global display glass substrate market has increased to 73%, strengthening its dominant position. By the second quarter of 2024, mainland China's share in global display glass substrate demand has increased to 73%, which is seen as a result of Sharp's 10th generation LCD factory in Sakai, Japan, closing.

Regarding company performance, LG Display is actively restructuring its business structure, narrowing its losses by 71.6%. In the first half of this year, sales were 11.9612 trillion Korean won, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. Operating losses also decreased from 1.9798 trillion Korean won in the previous year to 563.1 billion Korean won, a 71.6% reduction. LG Display is actively restructuring its business structure, planning to further increase the proportion of high value-added products such as OLED. OLED accounted for 50% of the company's total sales in the first half of the year, a 7% increase compared to the previous year.

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Consumer Electronics Materials: Innovation New Materials (jointly covered with Metal Materials Group), Siqun New Materials, China National Chemical Corporation, Furong Technology, Shihua Technology;

Consumer Electronics Components & Assembly: Foxconn, Luxshare Precision, Wingtech Technology, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Lens Technology, BOSCH Technology, Pengding Holdings, GoerTek, Changying Precision, Guoguang Electric, Changxin Technology, Sunway Optoelectronics Technology (Hong Kong Stock), High Wealth Electronics (Hong Kong Stock), Dongshan Precision, Desai Battery, Xinwanda, Sunway Communication, Coson Technology, Huanxu Electronics, Zhaowei Electromechanical (Mechanical Group Coverage), BYD Electronics (Hong Kong Stock), Zhidi Technology, Rapoo Technology, Innovation New Materials (jointly covered with Metal Materials Group);

Connectors and Cable Manufacturers: Connectors and Related: Luxshare Precision, Huafeng Technology, China Aviation Optoelectronics (jointly covered with Military Group), Dingtong Technology (Communication Group Coverage), Boway Alloy; Cables: Wollcore Materials, New Asia Electronics, Zhaolong Interconnect, Jin Xin Nuo, Dianlian Technology;

Passive Components: Upstream Raw Materials: Jiemai Technology/Guoci Materials (jointly covered with Chemical Group); MLCC: Sanhuan Group/Fenghua High-Tech/Dalikai Pu; Inductors: Shunluo Electronics/Maijie Technology/Boke New Materials (Metal Materials Group Coverage); Crystal Oscillators: Taijing Technology/Huilun Crystal;

Panels: BOE, TCL Technology, Rainbow Shares, Shentianma A, Liande Equipment (jointly covered with Mechanical Group), Jingce Electronics (jointly covered with Mechanical Group), Aolide, Dinglong Shares (jointly covered with Basic Chemical Group), Lite Optoelectronics (Chemical Group Coverage), Qingyi Optoelectronics, Feilihua, Shenkeda, Qizhong Technology, Huicheng Shares, New Phase Micro, Tiande Yu, Weir Shares, Zhongying Electronics, Yitian Shares CCL & Copper Foil & PCB: Jiantao Multilayer Board, Shengyi Technology, Jinan Guoji, Nanya New Material, Huazheng New Material, Sino-UK Technology, Jiayuan Technology (covering the Electronic Components and Metal Materials groups jointly), Nordson Corporation, Defu Technology, Fangbang Corporation, Pengding Holdings, Dongshan Precision, Shennan Circuits, Xingsen Technology, Shanghai Electric (jointly covering the Communication group), Jingwang Electronics, Shenghong Technology;

Consumer Electronics Automation Equipment: Coreray Technology (jointly covering the Machinery group), Zhilifang (jointly covering the Machinery group), Silinjie, Han's Laser, Saiteng Corporation, Jiepute, Huaxing Yuanchuang, Bojie Corporation, Rongqi Technology, Tianzhun Technology (jointly covering the Electronic Components and Machinery groups), Lingyun Optics, Jincetest Electronics (jointly covering the Machinery group), Bozhong Precision (covering the Machinery group);

Branded Consumer Electronics: Transsion Holdings, Mobvoi, Anker Innovation (jointly covering the Home Appliances group), Xiaomi Group (Hong Kong Stock);

Foldable Screen Industry Chain: Dongmu Corporation, Jingyan Technology, Tonglian Precision, Coson Corporation, Kaisheng Technology, Changxin Technology, Changyang Technology, O-film Tech

Automotive Electronics: Delian Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, Sunway Optoelectronics, Lianchuang Electronics, Yutai Micro, Heertai, Keboda, Desay SV, Lingdi Electronic Control, Xiang Oil Pump (jointly covering the Automotive group), Huayang Group, Dongsoft Group (jointly covering the Computer group), Baolong Technology (covering the Automotive group), Suteng Juchuang, Hesai Technology, Tudatong, Siwei Map, Baidu Group (overseas group coverage), Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence, Jingweihengrun, Bertli (covering the Automotive group), Zhongding Corporation, Tianrun Industry, Zhongke Chuangda (jointly covering the Computer group), Chengmai Technology, XPeng Motors (jointly covering the Automotive and Overseas groups), Li Auto (jointly covering the Automotive and Overseas groups), Nio, SAIC Group (covering the Automotive group), BYD (jointly covering the Automotive and Electronic Components groups);

Autonomous Driving: Hesai Technology, Tudatong, Siwei Map, Baidu Group (overseas group coverage), Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence, Desay SV, Huayang Group, Dongsoft Group (jointly covering the Computer group), Jingweihengrun, Baolong Technology (covering the Automotive group), Bertli (covering the Automotive group), Dahua Technology, Hikvision

Risk Warning: Lower-than-expected demand for consumer electronics, lower-than-expected product innovation, geopolitical conflicts, impact of the relocation of consumer electronics industry chain on domestic market share