After the job market cools down, could the US GDP face a significant downward revision tonight?

After the US job market cooled down, is economic growth also slowing down?

At 20:30 on Thursday Beijing time, the US Department of Commerce will release the final annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP for the second quarter of the United States. The market generally expects that economic growth will be slightly revised down from the previous 3% to 2.9%.

Goldman Sachs expects an even larger downward revision in GDP. Goldman Sachs pointed out that due to the downward revisions in non-residential construction, service consumption, and equipment investment, last year's GDP growth rate will be revised down by 0.3-0.4%. These revisions together will lower the year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter from 3.1% to 2.7%.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs noted that in line with the trend of significant wage reductions, GDI (Gross Domestic Income) will also be correspondingly reduced.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the statistical difference - the difference between GDP and GDI will only slightly narrow, shrinking by about 0.2-0.3% compared to last year. Nevertheless, the revisions up to the second quarter of 2024 and the inclusion of source data beyond explainable data may further narrow the gap.

Analysis believes that data always gets revised downward, never upward. The US economy is showing signs of fatigue under heavy pressure, starting with employment. The number of non-farm employment was significantly revised downward last month, the second largest in history, followed by continuous downward revisions in overall GDP, and US stock earnings will also face a similar situation, followed by the entire US stock market.

Previously, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its growth forecast for the US economy by 20%, expecting the US economy to slow to 1.6% next year with the Fed rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the OECD predicts global economic growth rates of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, a 10% increase from last year, mainly attributed to the expected improvements in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Brazil, as well as the expected improvement in the UK economy.

In addition, at the same time as the US GDP announcement, a series of important economic data will also be released, including the final quarter-on-quarter real personal consumption expenditure for the second quarter, the final annualized quarter-on-quarter core PCE price index for the second quarter, the month-on-month durable goods orders for August, and the initial jobless claims in the US up to September 21