Fed Cuts Aren't the Key–Labor Will Decide Mortgage Rates, Expert Says

The recent Federal Reserve rate cut may lead to lower mortgage rates, but experts believe the labor market will play a crucial role in determining how low rates can go. HousingWire analyst Logan Mohtashami suggests that rates could drop to around 5.75% by year-end, with current rates at 6.18%. Despite a rise in purchase applications, existing home sales are struggling due to homeowners' reluctance to sell. Analysts emphasize that labor market data and Fed policy will be key in shaping future mortgage rates.

The recent Federal Reserve rate cut has set the stage for potentially lower mortgage rates but industry experts are looking beyond central bank policy to gauge where rates might land by year-end.

According to HousingWire’s lead analyst Logan Mohtashami, the labor market’s strength – or weakness – will determine how low mortgage rates can go.

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“The mortgage spread story has been positive in 2024, whereas it was negative in 2023,” Mohtashami wrote in an analysis issued this week. “We have seen a big move, which has helped, and we still have some runway left to return to historical norms. This can help get mortgage rates down toward 5.75%.”

At the start of the year, Mohtashami forecast a range of 5.75% to 7.25% for 30-year rates by the end of 2024. Now, with the average 30-year conforming loan rate sitting at 6.18% as of Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily, that prediction is looking increasingly likely.

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The recent downward trend in rates has breathed some life into the housing market, with purchase applications rising for four consecutive weeks – the longest streak of the year, according to the report. However, the impact on home sales has been mixed.

While new home sales are on an upward trajectory, existing home sales continue to struggle, falling 2.5% month-over-month in August, per the National Association of Realtors.

Noah Rosenblatt, co-founder of UrbanDigs, a real estate analytics firm, cautions that the housing market has yet to fully stabilize. “We still have election uncertainty, local policy uncertainty and geopolitical uncertainty that are weighing on investors’ and buyers’ minds that could dampen the depth and duration of this recovery,” Rosenblatt said.

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Adding to the problem is the fact that many current homeowners are reluctant to sell and take on higher-rate mortgages. A Redfin analysis of Federal Housing Finance Agency data cited by HousingWire showed that six in seven mortgage holders have rates below 6%, creating a “lock-in” effect that’s constraining inventory.

While upcoming economic data releases, including GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, are unlikely to move the needle on rates, according to Afifa Suburi, a capital markets analyst at Veterans United Home Loans, all eyes are on the labor market.

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Kevin Ryan, CFO of Better, noted in an interview with HousingWire that Fed policymakers appear more concerned with the labor market than inflation at this point. “The Fed presumably will continue to stay data dependent within this recalibration thing,” Ryan said. “I see a slowly thawing housing sector. If you wake up in 18 months’ time, you’re going to have rates materially lower.”

As the year progresses, labor market data, Fed policy, and mortgage spreads will determine whether rates can break below Mohtashami’s forecast range.

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