Macro Must-See Charts: Slight Increase in Positions, Funds Unwilling to Chase Gold and Silver (2024/9/30)
Analysts pointed out that the ratio between gold and the US dollar index has broken through, indicating that the gold rally has just begun and is expected to continue to rise. Gold and silver have resumed their bullish trend at the end of the third quarter, and investors need to seize the opportunity. Although crude oil positions are at historically low levels, the market does not see much urgency in supply. Funds have limited increases in net long positions for gold and silver, while bank positions have reached record highs
Gold/USD Index
Analyst: The chart below shows the ratio of gold to the US dollar index. As indicated, the last time this ratio broke through was in 2003, and then gold soared over 300% in the following 8 years. So you can understand that the rise in gold has just begun, and it will continue to rise in the future.
Gold and Silver Closing in the Third Quarter
Analyst: As shown below, both gold and silver have seen significant breakthroughs on the quarterly line chart, restoring their bull market trends. Investors must recognize this bull market trend in order to truly profit from it, in my opinion, this is a one-time opportunity . The quarterly closing on Monday will be very impressive.
Crude Oil Positions
The net long positions of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil are still at historically low levels (red line represents net long positions, yellow represents open contracts), indicating that the market does not perceive a significant urgency in global crude oil supply. While geopolitical events may have some impact on the market, they are usually short-term and high-frequency.
Follow-up on Fund Flows
As shown in the chart below, on top of the existing large scale, funds have only increased their net long positions in gold by 3000 contracts in the past week, seeming reluctant to chase the rise at the current price level. Silver is the same, with funds only adding 4000 contracts of net long positions.
At the same time, banks' positions in gold and silver remain in stark contrast to funds, with net short positions hitting record highs again. How should we interpret these position signals?
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