Tesla achieved its first delivery growth of the year in the third quarter, why are investors still dissatisfied?

On Wednesday, October 2nd, the electric car giant Tesla announced the delivery and production data for the third quarter of this year. Although this is the first quarter of the year that Tesla has achieved an increase in car sales, the quarterly delivery volume still fell short of market expectations, leading to an initial drop of 6.4%.

The next major event is the highly anticipated Tesla "Robotaxi" event on October 10th next week, where it is expected to showcase a prototype of a dedicated robot taxi and emphasize the company's new strategic focus on AI-driven autonomous driving technology.

The data shows that Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles in the third quarter, slightly below the market estimate of 463,897 vehicles, but the car production reached 469,796 vehicles, exceeding the market estimate of 465,828 vehicles.

In the same period last year, the delivery volume was 435,059 vehicles, and the production volume was 430,488 vehicles. In the second quarter of 2024, the delivery volume was 443,956 vehicles, and the production volume was 410,831 vehicles. In other words, Tesla's third-quarter delivery volume increased by 6.4% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter, while production increased by 9.1% year-on-year and 14.4% quarter-on-quarter.

Among them, the delivery volume of Model 3 and Y in the third quarter of this year was 439,975 vehicles, higher than the market estimate of 435,920 vehicles, and the production volume of Model 3 and Y was 443,668 vehicles, also higher than the market estimate of 434,051 vehicles.

This indicates that Tesla's sales are almost entirely from the smaller and lower-priced Model 3 and Y models, while higher-priced models such as Model X, S, and the new electric pickup Cybertruck only sold 22,915 units.

Tesla's delivery volume is closely related to its sales volume, making it one of Wall Street's most closely watched indicators. Some analysts believe that although Tesla achieved a year-on-year increase in sales volume in the first quarter of this year, reversing the downturn of the previous two quarters, it is not enough to satisfy investors.

On one hand, this means that the company must achieve a record high delivery volume of 516,344 vehicles in the fourth quarter to reach last year's delivery level of 1.81 million vehicles. Any shortfall could lead to Tesla's first annual decline in delivery volume. Some social media users have claimed that Tesla's sales volume decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year.

At the same time, Tesla reversed its sales volume in the third quarter through price reductions and increased promotional efforts, which will put pressure on its industry-leading profit margin, a key focus when the third-quarter report is released on October 23rd. Analysts had previously estimated that Tesla's average car selling price in the third quarter was $42,500, the lowest price in four years.

Some analysts also believe that intense competition from other car companies in the US and China, as well as insufficient subsidies in Europe, have dragged down Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter, while increased purchase subsidies for electric vehicles in China have benefited Tesla's salesJATO Dynamics report shows that in July this year, BMW took the lead in the European pure electric vehicle market for the first time, defeating Tesla whose market share has been continuously eroded. At the same time, Tesla, which only produces pure electric vehicles, may find it difficult to compete with traditional giants producing hybrid cars.

Renowned technology stock analyst at Wedbush, Dan Ives, who has always been bullish on Tesla, continues to express optimism, stating that the delivery situation in the third quarter is "good, taking a step in the right direction," but the stock price is under pressure as investors have been hoping for better results:

"In general, there has been a significant improvement compared to the first half of this year. We believe that achieving sales of 1.8 million vehicles for the whole year is still a key and important goal. Demand in the Chinese market continues to rise, Europe is slowing down due to economic pressures, and the U.S. is stabilizing."

However, the Paris branch of BNP Paribas Securities has issued a warning, stating that the market's long-term expectations for Tesla are somewhat too high, with the company's sales expectations for 2026 and 2027 being "10% to 15% lower than market expectations." Tesla executives have also warned multiple times that the delivery growth rate in 2024 will be lower than last year