Someone increased the value of the house by 350,000 overnight

On October 2nd, at a sales office of a real estate project in Baoshan District, Shanghai, citizens are learning about property information with the assistance of staff. Image source: Visual China

This National Day holiday, some sales offices have become lively.

On the first day of the National Day holiday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges were closed. Some people who made money in the stock market started to visit sales offices to seek new investment opportunities.

The enthusiasm for home buying has been ignited by the recent intensive introduction of new real estate policies. On September 26th, the Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized "promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" and "adjusting housing purchase restrictions, lowering interest rates on existing home loans." Subsequently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated its support for first-tier cities to make good use of real estate market regulation autonomy, adjusting housing purchase restrictions based on local conditions.

In just two days, cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen quickly responded.

On September 30th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and 6 other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Related Policies," announcing policies such as lowering interest rates on existing home loans, reducing the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans, increasing support for housing provident fund loans, adjusting the social security or individual income tax payment years for non-Beijing residents buying homes, adjusting housing purchase restrictions in Tongzhou District, and canceling standard distinctions between ordinary and non-ordinary homes.

Traditionally, the National Day holiday often sees a surge in home purchases, but in the past two years, this kind of excitement has been hard to come by. Now, with the stock market booming and new real estate policies stimulating the market, what scenes will unfold at major real estate projects this National Day?

The marketing director of a project in Beijing told the author of "Prism," "This policy will be the starting point for restoring market confidence."

Real Estate Sales "Stayed Up All Night"

The sound of "smashing eggs" is heard one after another, a scene not seen for a long time.

In a sales center in Haidian District, Beijing, a row of "golden eggs" is neatly arranged in the lobby. Customers can smash these "golden eggs" by paying a deposit, a common marketing strategy used by developers. The prizes inside the "golden eggs" include cash rewards, white goods, etc.

At noon on October 1st, within just one hour, three "golden eggs" were smashed open at the sales office, with confetti and eggshells covering the floor, recording the day's sales scene.

That evening, several real estate developers in Beijing publicly announced their achievements, with Poly Beijing claiming "a successful first day, with sales of 187 million yuan"; Cushman & Wakefield receiving visits from over 100 groups of customers in a single day, with subscriptions totaling 125 million yuan...

From October 1st to 2nd, the author of "Prism" visited several real estate projects and intermediary stores in Beijing. Real estate agents all mentioned that after the new policy was introduced, there was a noticeable increase in inquiries, property viewings, and transactions at the stores, indicating a clear recovery in the real estate market.

At the entrance of the Future Sales Center of China Overseas Land & Investment, parking has become a major issue. In the afternoon of October 1st, parking spaces were already full, and even the unmarked roadside areas were filled with private cars.

Upon entering the sales office lobby, posters about the new real estate policies were prominently displayed. Within just an hour, 11 groups of customers had registered to view properties. Those who did not make prior appointments had to wait in line at the entrance for over ten minutes to meet with a sales consultant A salesperson at China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. told the author that on the evening of September 30th when the new policy was announced, customers rushed to sign contracts overnight, and the salesperson stayed up all night.

Meanwhile, at the Longfor Guancui sales center not far away, the scene was equally lively with almost no empty seats in the negotiation area. A salesperson at the sales office told the author that from 10 pm to 12 am on September 30th alone, 4 groups of customers signed contracts.

"Many salespeople took early vacations, but many colleagues voluntarily gave up their holidays and are on their way back," the salesperson mentioned above told the author.

The policy effects also spread to the second-hand housing market.

"Some customers who were previously hesitant have now become decisive," recalled a broker at a real estate agency in Shijingshan District, Beijing. Before the new policy was announced on September 30th, a customer had been hesitating, but after the policy was released that evening, the customer didn't negotiate any conditions and signed on the spot.

Purchase restrictions in the four major first-tier cities have been adjusted

On the evening of September 30th, Beijing's thirteen-year-old purchase restriction policy finally saw a major relaxation.

According to research by China Real Estate Information Corporation, starting from September 2023, Beijing has been taking small steps quickly, having already issued 10 policies within a year.

According to an industry insider who disclosed to the author, on October 1st, Lianjia in Beijing completed a total of 380 transactions for second-hand housing, doubling the usual amount.

From a policy perspective, Beijing made significant optimization adjustments to the purchase restrictions this time. The social security years required for non-Beijing households to purchase homes within the Fifth Ring Road were reduced from the original requirement to 3 years, and outside the Fifth Ring Road to 2 years. For high-level and urgently needed talents, the social security years for home purchases were reduced to 1 year.

At the same time, Beijing also lowered the down payment ratio for personal housing loans. The down payment ratio for the first home was lowered to the national unified minimum of 15%, and the down payment ratio for the second home no longer distinguishes between inside and outside the Fifth Ring Road, uniformly reduced to 20%.

Regarding this, Chen Wenjing, the policy research director of Zhongzhi Research Institute, told the author that the adjustment of the down payment ratio will significantly reduce the threshold for homebuyers, effectively promoting the release of rigid demand and demand for improved housing. The adjustment of purchase restrictions is also expected to have a more positive impact on market activity.

Currently, the four major first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have all adjusted their housing purchase restriction policies.

Among them, Shanghai was the first city to comprehensively respond to the new regulations from the regulatory authorities. On the evening of September 29th, the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and five other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing the City's Real Estate Market Policy Measures," reducing the social security years for non-local households outside the outer ring road from 3 years to 1 year.

Shenzhen has optimized housing purchase restrictions by zones, where local households and singles can purchase an additional housing unit in the suburbs; the social security payment years for non-local households in the central urban area have been reduced from 3 years to 1 year, and the purchase restrictions in the suburbs have been lifted; in addition, families with multiple children can purchase an additional housing unit.

Guangzhou has completely lifted housing purchase restrictions. On the evening of September 29th, the General Office of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government issued a notice on adjusting measures for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, explicitly canceling all housing purchase restrictions for resident families in the city In fact, not only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but recently Xiamen, Wuxi, Chengdu, and other places have also introduced relevant optimization policies.

Chen Wenjing stated that the concentrated implementation of policies in first-tier cities will help to enhance the cumulative effect of policies, overall playing a more positive role in stabilizing market expectations and boosting market confidence.

Chen Wenjing mentioned that with the accelerated implementation of multiple policies recently, it is expected that the prices of properties in core cities will stabilize, and the activity in the real estate market in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The stabilization of the property market in core cities is also expected to further drive the national real estate market to accelerate its stabilization.

New Property Daily Transaction Volume Doubles

Not only in Beijing, but also in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other places, the real estate market has warmed up after the new policies.

In Shenzhen, after the policy was implemented on September 29th, many projects for sale welcomed a large number of visitors. According to Southern Metropolis Daily, 395 units of Ruijing Bay in Shenzhen were sold out in half a day, taking only 8 hours.

In Guangzhou, on September 30th, several popular projects in Guangzhou attracted a lot of attention. At the New World Tianfu project in Liwan District, the negotiation area was basically full of visitors.

According to the poster of Guangzhou Beike New Property Festival released by Beike, on the first day of the Golden Week, the number of subscriptions exceeded 600.

According to data provided by Zhongzhi Research Institute to the author, from September 24th to 29th, 2024, the daily transaction volume of new properties in Beijing increased by 100.9% compared to September 1st to 23rd.

In Shanghai, the daily transaction volume of new properties from September 24th to 29th also increased by 64.4% compared to September 1st to 23rd. In addition, Guangzhou increased by 76.6%, and Shenzhen increased by 47.7%.

Real estate analyst Yan Yuejin believes that with the continuous optimization of real estate purchase restriction policies in various regions recently, overall market expectations and purchasing sentiment have increased, showing activity. It is expected that the transaction volume during the National Day Golden Week will record an increase.

Yan Yuejin stated that looking ahead, the real estate market transactions in the fourth quarter will usher in a wave of good trends, showing a good momentum of "both volume and price rising", indicating that the bull market in real estate has begun.

The recovery on the sales side has also reactivated the land market. On September 29th, a piece of land in Tianhe District, Guangzhou, was auctioned off, attracting 3 real estate companies including Poly Developments to "battle". After a "battle" of 5 hours, Poly Developments finally won the land with a total price of 11.755 billion yuan and a premium rate of 33.4%.

The transaction floor price of the land is about 6.7 thousand yuan per square meter, the second highest land transaction price in Guangzhou, and the highest total price land plot in Tianhe District.

Some Owners Temporarily Increase Prices by 350,000

With the market warming up, "high probability of price increase after National Day" is becoming a "standard rhetoric" for many sales personnel.

A sales consultant at a sales office in the Future Science City area of Changping District, Beijing, told the author that on October 1st, the property increased by 2%.

In addition, Zhongjian Yipin issued a poster, starting from October 8th, projects such as Huaxiang Yihao and Yihe Gongguan under its umbrella will have a 2% discount rollback; Beijing Changping Xincheng Wutong Mountain Language full-line products will have a 2% discount rollback The new real estate policies have also affected the mindset of second-hand homeowners. "The price that could be sold before, can't be sold now." said a manager of a real estate agency in Chaoyang District, Beijing.

He mentioned that a client was interested in a house, and the price discussed with the homeowner was 2.5 million yuan. After the new real estate policies were introduced, the homeowner adjusted the price overnight to 2.85 million yuan, an increase of 14%.

"After the new policies were announced, second-hand home sellers have improved their price expectations, withdrawn the minimum price, and it is not uncommon for them to raise the price by two to three hundred thousand yuan overnight. Some sellers, even if they have not adjusted the listing price, have a different mindset now and are no longer eager to sell at a lower price," said a broker in Shijingshan District, Beijing.

However, the buying sentiment ignited by the new policies has not yet led to a significant increase in house prices.

"In the new housing market, it is unlikely for developers to significantly raise prices because they are eager to clear inventory and receive payments," said a real estate professional based in Beijing.

According to a real estate professional based in South China, the company is seizing the policy window period and fully promoting real estate sales and inventory clearance in key areas and projects.

He mentioned that the claimed 2% price increase can be understood as a marketing tactic by developers to encourage purchases. The increased prices will actually be returned to buyers in the form of subsidies.

On October 2nd, the author of "Prism" visited a project in Changping District, Beijing, where the guided price was around 6,500 yuan per square meter. "Can you make a reservation today?" urged the on-site property consultant, showing the author an actual price of 5,900 yuan per square meter on the calculator.

In the second-hand housing sector, although some homeowners have temporarily raised prices, several brokers told the author that the properties with increased prices have not been sold.

"Homeowners who raise prices are not actually wise. It is still a buyer's market now, with many more people selling houses than buying. Raising prices will make it difficult to sell the house," said a broker in Chaoyang District, Beijing.

The broker mentioned that there is currently no "panic buying" similar to that in 2016-2017.

Produced by Author | Yue Jiachen Editor | Wang Weikai