European and American stocks and bonds fell together, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 4%, while Brent crude oil rose to nearly $80
The stock and bond markets in Europe and the United States are generally falling, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 4%. Market expectations for a rate cut in the United States next month have dropped to 25 basis points. The bank earnings season is about to begin, and although profit growth may slow down, the data is still optimistic. Global stock markets are mixed, with India's stock market experiencing large-scale net selling. Oil prices are rising due to tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude approaching $80 per barrel
Last week, the unexpectedly strong September non-farm payroll data in the United States led to a decline in US stocks and a rise in major bond yields. The market is eagerly awaiting the US inflation data to be released this Thursday, with economists expecting a slight slowdown in year-on-year price growth.
On Monday, October 7th, before the US stock market opened, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose by over 4%, and the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond broke 4% for the first time since August, continuing the uptrend from Friday.
The three major US stock index futures collectively declined, while the STOXX 600 index in Europe saw a slight decrease and European bond yields rose collectively.
Currently, the forward market has priced in the expectation of a less than 25 basis point rate cut by the US next month, whereas until recently, the market had expected a 50 basis point cut.
In addition, the US bank earnings season is about to begin. Despite analysts predicting a slowdown in profit growth starting from the second quarter, the data is still expected to be strong.
Today, Asian stock markets closed mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 index up over 2%, the KOSPI index in South Korea up 1.58%, only the Indian stock market closed lower, with the NIFTY index down 0.87% and the SENSEX index down 0.78%.
The latest data shows that global funds have recorded a record high net selling of Indian stocks, with the Indian stock market experiencing the largest net sell-off by global funds since at least January 1, 1999. Goldman Sachs believes that this is because "when the Chinese stock market sees 'intense' buying, the Indian market will become fragile."
Goldman Sachs India trader Nikhilesh Kasi responded to clients, saying, "Without a doubt, yes, (funds are flowing from India to China)," and explained that based on the observed flow of funds, this trend is very clear.
Regarding oil prices, due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East, crude oil prices surged last week. Brent crude futures rose by over 5% last Friday. Currently, Brent crude is approaching $80 per barrel. In another report, Goldman Sachs stated that oil prices are experiencing a short squeeze.
Goldman Sachs stated that as the uptrend in the energy sector ignites, the historic oil market short squeeze is just beginning. If Israel does take action to destroy Iran's oil infrastructure, or worse, target its nuclear industry, the upcoming surge in oil prices will make the 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze pale in comparison 【20:33 Update】
US Stock Index Futures Decline
S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.39%, Nasdaq futures fell by 0.51%, and Dow futures fell by 0.37%.
