Beishui Movement | Beishui's net buying volume is 2.066 billion, domestic funds rush to subscribe to Alibaba over 3.6 billion, selling Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing all day

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, on October 8th, in the Hong Kong stock market, Beishui had a net purchase of HKD 2.066 billion. Among them, the net purchase through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 0.437 billion, and the net purchase through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 1.629 billion.

The top stocks with the highest net purchases by Beishui were Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Xiaomi-W (01810). The top stocks with the highest net sales by Beishui were HKEX (00388), CNOOC (00883), and China Mobile (00941).

Active trading stocks through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Active trading stocks through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Alibaba-W (09988) had a net purchase of HKD 3.624 billion. In terms of news, Morgan Stanley released a report stating that as of the first week of September, southbound funds held 0.4% of Alibaba's shares, which increased to 2.7% by the end of September. According to Wind data, the net inflow amounted to RMB 39 billion (approximately USD 5.5 billion), and it is estimated that southbound funds' holdings may reach low double digits (%), based on the average holdings of other shares in the first year of entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Morgan Stanley estimates that southbound funds' shareholding in Alibaba within a year will be between 8% and 17%, with an expected net inflow of USD 13 billion to 17 billion (approximately HKD 101 billion to 132.1 billion).

SMIC (00981) had a net purchase of HKD 1.808 billion. In terms of news, Goldman Sachs stated in a research report that it is expected that wafer companies will benefit from the increasing demand for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, driving long-term revenue expansion. However, profits are still under pressure due to depreciation burdens from pricing and capacity expansion. The bank pointed out that mainland wafer factories are expanding capacity as planned to seize the rising local demand, and they have a positive view on long-term opportunities. Huatai Securities previously stated that they are optimistic about the sustainability of the valuation repair in the subsequent Hong Kong stock semiconductor manufacturing sector.

Kuaishou-W (01024) had a net purchase of HKD 0.145 billion. In terms of news, Credit Suisse's research report mentioned that Kuaishou's e-commerce strategy focuses on driving product sales more than subsidy sales. They are optimistic that through comprehensive platform promotion and simple advertising products, Kuaishou can continue to drive internal advertising conversion, while also benefiting from external advertising spending from short videos, mini-games, and novels On the other hand, the company's AI applications will also improve content creation and recommendations. Among them, the Ke Ling large model can create videos lasting more than 1 minute. The industry expects that Kuaishou can maintain a growth of about 15% in total commodity transactions, with adjusted net profit of approximately 8.5 billion RMB in the second half of the year.

Beishui Fund increased its holdings in Chinese brokerage stocks, with CICC (03908) and CITIC Securities (06030) receiving net purchases of 140 million and 67.47 million Hong Kong dollars respectively. On the news front, UBS published a research report stating that it believes the securities industry is experiencing several catalytic factors, including at the macro level, mainland China's reserve requirement ratio reduction, interest rate cuts, and lowering of existing home loan rates; in the capital market, the establishment of market value management guidelines, support for share buybacks, and attracting long-term funds into the stock market. In terms of sectors, industry consolidation is expected to accelerate, improving the competitive environment. The industry believes that the A-share valuation of brokerage stocks is still relatively cheap, but compared to historical average valuations, the H-share valuation is not considered cheap.

Tencent (00700) saw a net sell-off of 293 million Hong Kong dollars. According to public information from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Tencent Holdings repurchased 35.9 billion Hong Kong dollars in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of this year, Tencent has repurchased a total of 250 million shares, with a total repurchase amount of 88.26 billion Hong Kong dollars, reaching a historical high for the same period. As of the close on October 7th, Tencent has repurchased over 89 billion Hong Kong dollars this year. At the current pace, Tencent's "over 100 billion repurchase" target set at the beginning of the year is expected to be achieved ahead of schedule.

CNOOC (00883) saw a net sell-off of 696 million Hong Kong dollars. On the news front, on October 8th, WTI crude oil fell to $75 per barrel, down 2.4% intraday. Brent crude oil fell below $79 per barrel, down 2.2% intraday. Previously, stimulated by escalating tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices had been rising continuously. Guotai Junan Futures believes that as global crude oil consumption enters the seasonal off-peak period, and based on the latest online meeting of OPEC+, the organization will gradually increase production as planned in December. Therefore, without considering strong geopolitical uncertainties, the fundamental impact on crude oil is biased towards the downside. In this context, if the subsequent geopolitical situation eases, oil prices may quickly recover in the short term, with a medium to long-term downward shift.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) saw a net sell-off of 2.383 billion Hong Kong dollars. On the news front, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the average daily turnover of the Hong Kong stock market in the third quarter reached 119 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The market momentum in October is still ongoing, but whether the rebound in average daily turnover is sustainable remains key. HSBC pointed out that due to capital market investors being unable to invest in A-shares during the National Day period, the surge in average daily trading volume (ADT) is only temporary. The bank believes that there is limited further upside potential in its stock price.

In addition, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net purchase of 833 million Hong Kong dollars. Meanwhile, China Mobile (00941) and Sunac China (01918) saw net sell-offs of 430 million and 366 million Hong Kong dollars respectively