The strongest hurricane in a century hits Florida, will non-farm payrolls and GDP both take a hit?

Hurricane "Milton" may cause severe damage to US economic data in the short term and bring more lasting pain to the Big Bend area of Florida. The hurricane, classified as a Category 5 on Tuesday afternoon, is expected to hit Tampa and its surrounding areas on Wednesday night. Just two weeks ago, Hurricane "Helene" struck the same area and moved north to North Carolina and Tennessee.

The National Weather Service in Tampa warned, "If the storm stays on its current track, it will be the most severe storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years." The National Weather Service also stated, "'Milton' continues to pose a potentially catastrophic threat to parts of the west coast of Florida." It is forecasted that compared to "Helene," "Milton" will bring higher storm surges to the Tampa area. President Biden told reporters that "Milton" could be "the most severe storm to hit Florida in over a century."

These two storms may distort the labor market data for October, suppress consumer spending and economic growth in the affected areas, and drive up food prices.

Citigroup's Chief Economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote, "The October nonfarm payrolls report could be significantly impacted."

Ahead of "Milton's" landfall, employers in the region have been closing their doors. Disney, Universal Studios, SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, and Legoland theme parks in Orlando all announced closures on Wednesday. Additionally, in North Carolina, which was heavily impacted by Hurricane "Helene," many workers may still be on leave. This could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate in the October jobs report and limit hiring.

JPMorgan's Abiel Reinhar estimates that the impact of "Helene" on employment may only be a "very small drag," but it could still result in the loss of over 100,000 jobs. In comparison, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most severe hurricane seasons on record. In September 2005, the initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 35,000.

The October nonfarm payrolls report will be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election on November 5.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5 will be announced on Thursday, providing an initial insight into the potential impact of the storm on the labor market. Economists surveyed by FactSet predict that initial jobless claims for last week will be 225,000, unchanged from the previous week. Morgan Stanley's economic team expects 235,000 claims. The bank anticipates an increase in jobless claims related to the hurricane, but notes that delays in filing for unemployment benefits in hard-hit North Carolina may become more apparent later.

However, Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote that any decline in US employment statistics should be temporary and should not be a reason for the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts at the November policy meeting In addition to the impact on the labor market, "Milton" may also lead to a rise in commodity costs, including food and energy prices. Chevron announced on Monday that it has evacuated all personnel from the Blind Faith platform and shut down facilities in preparation for the arrival of "Milton". Production at other oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico remains normal.

"Due to unusually warm seawater, the Gulf of Mexico may continue to generate more hurricanes, so the energy industry may welcome the end of the November Atlantic hurricane season," wrote Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates.

Fruit prices may also be affected, as Florida's citrus production accounts for 17% of the national total, with the central part of the state being the highest citrus-producing region.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, when Hurricane "Ian" struck southwest Florida in September 2022, the estimated losses to the state's citrus crops ranged from $200 million to $400 million. However, the agency estimates that as the season progresses, the losses caused by "Ian" could reach as high as 42% of Florida's total production.

AccuWeather founder and chairman Joel Myers stated, "In a matter of weeks, prices for some vegetables and fruits (such as oranges and tomatoes) will rise."

He said, "Milton" is expected to be "one of the most destructive and costly hurricanes in the United States".

This is partly due to the expected path of the storm. If the hurricane hits the densely populated Tampa metropolitan area, it could cause significant property and business losses, leading to reduced spending. According to Myers' calculations, if the economic losses caused by "Milton" exceed $200 billion, these two consecutive hurricanes could have a negative impact on the U.S. GDP for the third quarter.

However, even the impact of major hurricanes on the macroeconomy is typically short-lived. The 2005 storm season was one of the most severe in recent years, with Hurricane "Katrina" making landfall in late August, followed by Hurricanes "Rita" and "Wilma". According to the Council of Economic Advisers, these three hurricanes together reduced the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.7 percentage points in the third quarter of 2008 and by 0.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter. Hurricane "Katrina" also damaged energy infrastructure, leading to a surge in gasoline prices nationwide.

But the Congressional Budget Office estimates that due to the reconstruction efforts following "Katrina", the U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2006 was an additional 0.5%. Furthermore, according to the analysis by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the income and employment of those affected by "Katrina" recovered quite rapidly.

Reinhar of JP Morgan estimates that the impact of Hurricane "Helena" on a state's GDP could be around 1%. The four states most severely affected by hurricanes - Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina - account for nearly 13% of the U.S. GDP, so the impact of Hurricane "Helena" on annualized GDP growth will be approximately 0.13% "Hurricanes are expected to cause slight drag on the economy in the early part of this quarter, but the lost output will be compensated in the following months, along with cleanup and rebuilding efforts," said Sweet from the Oxford Economics Research Institute.

It is worth noting that two key battleground states, Georgia and North Carolina, have been hit by hurricanes. These two states are considered must-win states for Trump, and polls show that both candidates have similar levels of support here. Trump, during his visit to Georgia, stated that emergency relief funds for Americans are being drained because the money is being used on immigrants. Biden, on the other hand, accused Republicans of spreading "bold lies" about disaster relief funds. Regardless, once Trump's attacks land, voter dissatisfaction with post-disaster recovery measures could potentially impact the voting results in these two crucial states