10 Highlights of the Tesla Robotaxi Launch Event: Robot Taxis, Humanoid Robots, and More

As the Tesla Robotaxi Day event on October 10 approaches, global attention is once again focused on the latest technological developments of this electric car giant. Musk previously stated that it "will go down in history" and may become "the biggest event in the company's history."

On October 7, Bernstein analysts A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. and Daniel Zhu released a report predicting that Tesla will demonstrate dedicated robot taxis and a ride-hailing app at Robotaxi Day, providing the latest updates on FSD 12.5 progress and roadmap, and announcing robot taxi trials in one or more cities.

At the same time, Tesla may also provide more details about its new "Model 2.5" and updates on its Optimus robot. However, it is unlikely to provide updates on its low-cost Model 2 or its Tesla Semi.

Bernstein believes that Tesla's Robotaxi Day is significant, but given the company's "overly optimistic" history, especially Musk's previous statement that he was "too optimistic about FSD (Full Self-Driving technology) development," there may still be significant issues with these projects in terms of details. Therefore, Bernstein analysts have listed ten key questions.

1. Showcase the Cybercab Robot Taxi

The robot taxi is the highlight of this Robotaxi Day.

Initially, Tesla announced the "We, Robot" event on April 5, and Musk suddenly announced on Twitter that "Tesla robot taxis will be released on August 8." However, apart from this, Tesla has not announced any other news.

Bernstein expects the company to showcase its Robotaxi prototype designed for autonomous driving on October 10, codenamed "Cybercab". In fact, earlier this year, Tesla proposed a concept for a small two-seater car that is teardrop-shaped and without a steering wheel.

It is reported that the test vehicle has already been tested in Los Angeles. Although it is heavily disguised, its shape seems to meet people's expectations for a two-door car.

2. Demonstrate the Custom-Built Ride-Hailing App

Previously, Tesla has showcased a model of its robot taxi ride-hailing app, named "Fleet Management Solution," which includes functions such as "summoning" cars and estimating wait times. Owners can also add or remove private cars, resembling a mix of Airbnb and Uber.

Bernstein believes that Tesla may demonstrate this app and its functions:

"Including calling and riding in robot taxis (and possibly other Tesla vehicles) at the event - reportedly, Tesla has already mapped out detailed maps for the event."

3. Update on the Progress and Roadmap of Full Self-Driving (FSD)

Bernstein pointed out that Level 4 autonomous driving is a clear prerequisite for true robot taxi services, while Tesla's current FSD service is still at Level 2+.

Currently, the industry generally adopts the classification standard of autonomous driving systems released by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) in the United States, with 6 levels from L0 to L5, where Level 0 means no automation at all, and Level 5 means fully autonomous driving. Currently, the majority of vehicles with autonomous driving functions are at Level 2.

Tesla has previously stated that it has accelerated the progress of FSD capabilities:

"Based on current trends, it seems that we should be able to increase the miles between interventions to a high enough level that it's far beyond human, that it's likely to be achieved without supervision by the end of this year."

The company also stated that it has developed an FSD release roadmap, including the launch of FSD v13 in October, stating that "the miles required for intervention have increased by about 6 times."

Therefore, Bernstein believes:

"Tesla may provide updates on the progress of FSD, which may include an updated roadmap, the release of FSD v13, and the launch of FSD in China."

4. Regulatory approval difficulties, most likely to conduct autonomous driving tests in Texas

Bernstein pointed out in the report that Tesla lags behind its competitors in regulatory approval, as the company has not conducted autonomous driving tests, while Google's Waymo has been doing so since 2017.

However, some jurisdictions have relatively fewer initial barriers in self-certification and starting autonomous driving tests (although there are stricter requirements for actual deployment of commercial robot taxis), including Texas, where Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox are operating or planning to operate robot taxis in Austin.

It is worth noting that Austin is also where Tesla's headquarters are located. Therefore, analysts believe that Tesla is very likely to announce autonomous driving tests in one or more cities, with Texas being the most likely location, but it could also be elsewhere.

5. See more details of the new vehicle model

During the first-quarter conference call this year, Tesla announced that it would launch a new vehicle model by the end of 2024 or early 2025, which was later changed to the first half of 2025 during the second-quarter call.

At the same time, Tesla has tempered its ambitions, stating that it will not use revolutionary next-generation manufacturing processes to build these vehicle models, but will establish the new models on Tesla's existing production lines—more like "Model 2.5".Tesla showcased the outlines of three new models at its shareholder meeting, with one possibly being the Cybercab, and the other two possibly being a van and a sedan. Analysts believe that Tesla is unlikely to start production before the end of the year, and may not be able to scale up production until the end of 2025. However, analysts also stated:

"We believe Tesla may announce or provide more details about the upcoming Model 2.5 at the event on October 10."

6. Update on Optimus Progress

Elon Musk previously stated that Tesla's long-term future revolves around Optimus (Optimus Prime) humanoid robots:

"I think the long-term value of Optimus will exceed the sum of all other Tesla products."

However, in reality, since the release of Optimus in 2022, the company has provided almost no updates on its progress. Despite this, Bernstein still believes that Tesla may have already updated the progress of Optimus, with the caption "We, Robot" at this event possibly hinting at Tesla's plans to include such updates.

7. Unlikely to Disclose Latest Production Process News

At last year's Investor Day in March, the focus was on Tesla's next-generation platform manufacturing process. It is reported that this platform will adopt a new manufacturing process to significantly reduce costs by 50% and drive Tesla towards its goal of producing 20 million vehicles annually.

For this event, Bernstein believes that since there are rumors that the Cybercab will be based on a kit assembly process, but Tesla has not yet shared detailed information about Model 2.5, and this model is planned to start production within the next 8 months. Therefore, Tesla may focus on its recent new product releases and delay the disclosure of details about Model 2.

8. Testing Robot Taxis in China

There are many major participants in the field of robot taxis in China, including Baidu's Apollo, Pony.AI, WeRide, AutoX, and Didi.

Furthermore, considering that Tesla has not even been allowed to launch L2 solutions like FSD, Bernstein believes that the company may need to first launch FSD in China before starting robot taxi trials.

9. Uncertainty Remains on Tesla Semi Updates

After seeing what appears to be a roof-mounted LiDAR sensor kit on the Tesla Semi (Tesla's electric semi-truck in development), discussions about Tesla Semi have resurfaced in the blogosphere, leading to speculation that this event may include updates on Tesla Semi.

However, Bernstein noted that Tesla Semi is still mostly in the testing phase and will not be mass-produced before March 2026. Therefore, analysts remain cautious about whether Tesla will make significant updates to the Semi

10. Other Questions Investors Should Consider

1. Does Tesla believe that its pure camera system can imitate or surpass the safety record of existing lidar and radar systems? Does it consider lidar necessary for FSD?

2. Will FSD 12.5 and future software versions be backward compatible with all installed Tesla bases, and when can this be achieved? Can Tesla assure all Tesla owners that their hardware will be able to run the latest FSD versions in the future?

3. Why hasn't Tesla disclosed details of accidents and human interventions to regulatory authorities? Does it plan to do so, and if so, when?

4. What are the time frames and processes for regulatory approval of autonomous taxis (with and without human intervention) in the United States and internationally?

5. To what extent will Tesla implement centralized human monitoring for its autonomous taxi service? (For example, how many vehicles will each supervisor be responsible for?) What happens if autonomous taxis require manual driving/takeover control in the event of an accident?

6. Who will provide insurance for Tesla and third-party autonomous taxis? Who will provide insurance for Tesla owners who opt to include their vehicles in the Tesla autonomous taxi network?

7. How will Tesla achieve scalability in its potential autonomous taxi service? Is Tesla considering partnerships with ride-hailing services? Why? Would Tesla consider acquiring existing ride-hailing networks (such as Lyft)?

8. What cost advantages might Tesla's autonomous taxi service have compared to current ride-hailing services and Waymo's service?

9. Will existing Tesla models be the first to have autonomous taxi functionality, or will the initial batch of autonomous taxis be specifically launched products by Tesla? Why?

10. How many commercial autonomous taxi services are expected to emerge in the next five years? How many companies are expected to obtain L5 autonomous driving permits?

In addition, Bernstein pointed out in the report that Tesla may struggle to win in FSD/Robotaxi and achieve sustained excess profits.

Analysts believe that due to technological and regulatory reasons, it is still uncertain whether Tesla can surpass current L4 autonomous taxi operators; Furthermore, even if Tesla can be the first to achieve L5, followers may introduce competitive products, weakening Tesla's chances of obtaining excess profits; Meanwhile, until the low-cost Model 2 goes into production (possibly by 2027), Tesla's core automotive business will face limited growth and profit margin expansion.

Moreover, Bernstein has given Tesla a rating of "underperform" with a target price of $120. Analysts believe:

"The value of Tesla's automotive business may be less than $200 billion, which means the company's valuation includes about $600 billion in value from other businesses, possibly Robotaxi and humanoid robots."