Everything you need to know about Tesla's Robotaxi

Is Musk finally going to make the "self-driving" pie a reality?

On the morning of October 11th, Beijing time, Tesla is set to hold a demonstration event called "Robotaxi Day" at the Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles, California. The theme of this event is "We, Robot," which means Musk will reveal more about the latest developments in Tesla's self-driving cars and robotics technology on site.

The event was originally scheduled to take place in August this year, with Musk claiming it would be a "historic event." Two months later, Musk is expected to gain more competitive advantage for Tesla at this event—potentially including the debut of Tesla Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus robot, the affordable consumer model Model 2, and other latest developments and news.

Since its inception, the self-driving industry has gone through a long period of ups and downs, representing the future of automotive travel. From Uber, Google's Waymo, Tesla to major factories and startups in China, all have joined this wave. Undoubtedly, Tesla's event will bring new imagination to the industry. For Musk, his more challenging task remains—how to use this event to continue conveying "Tesla's technological imprint" to the outside world, rather than just being an automotive company.

We have compiled relevant information about this event, tracing the ambitions of Tesla Robotaxi and Musk. Here's everything you need to know:

1. What will the Robotaxi debut look like?

At this event, Tesla is very likely to launch a brand new model designed specifically for autonomous taxis. In April this year, Musk announced the Tesla Robotaxi product named "Cybercab." The appearance of the prototype has been a subject of public interest.

In Walter Isaacson's biography "Elon Musk," Musk described the design concept of this car as follows: "No side mirrors, no pedals, no steering wheel." From the concept design at that time, Cybercab is a two-door, two-seater vehicle with a "cyberpunk" style similar to Cybertruck. "When one of these cars flashes on the street corner, people will think they have seen a creation from the future," Musk said.

Robotaxi team and conceptual design drawing Source: Walter Isaacson's "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future"

In May 2024, Tesla also released a video of potential design features for Cybercab. Combining spy photos on the social forum Reddit and information from foreign media, the veil of Cybercab is gradually being lifted:

Cybercab spy photo appearance shows possible installation of lidar, Source: X

• Interior Structure: Two seats side by side, an infotainment system between the front seats, spacious storage space in the rear, no steering wheel, no pedals.

• Exterior: Two doors, two seats, designed with a futuristic cyberpunk feel similar to "Cybertruck".

• Configuration: Fully reliant on Tesla's full self-driving software, possibly equipped with cameras or even lidar, interaction mainly through the Robotaxi APP. In Tesla's quarterly earnings call in April this year, they showcased the design of their Robotaxi APP.

Tesla's shared taxi APP related UI interface Source: Tesla's financial report

• Price: According to Musk, Tesla's Robotaxi will fully consider the cost of vehicle per mile or kilometer, and the fare may even be cheaper than taking a bus.

II. Is FSD Ready?

Another aspect worth paying attention to at the conference is Tesla's software capabilities - whether FSD can keep up with the manufacturing process. According to foreign media predictions, Tesla is likely to demonstrate the latest or higher version of the FSD system at the conference, as well as a demonstration of autonomous driving taxis on "closed routes".

Bernstein analysts pointed out that Level 4 autonomous driving is a clear prerequisite for true robot taxi services, while the FSD service currently provided by Tesla is still at Level 2+.

As of now, the latest FSD version released by Tesla was V12.5.4 on September 23, which introduced Smart Summon, allowing users to summon the vehicle to their side or a nearby selectable area using their phone. However, the FSD system is currently only available in the United States and Canada. In September this year, the Tesla team revealed that they expect to launch the FSD system in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, but the specific implementation timeline is still subject to regulatory approval Since announcing the termination of cooperation with Mobileye in 2016, Musk and Tesla have embarked on a completely self-developed path for FSD. From its inception to the launch of FSD V12 in 2024 and its large-scale deployment in North America, Tesla has gradually shaped the core advantages of the FSD "end-to-end" technology route through "no high-precision maps + pure visual solutions" and years of investment in computing power and data. Eddie Wu, Vice President of NVIDIA Global and Head of the Automotive Division, once commented: "The biggest role of Tesla FSD is to drive the industry's leapfrog development and raise the ceiling."

In other words, the external expectations for Tesla's Robotaxi lie in the flywheel effect released by the synergy of software and hardware— the software capabilities of FSD and the upcoming Robotaxi terminal work together, combined with Tesla's advantages, to drive commercialization.

As of the second quarter of this year, the cumulative mileage of FSD has exceeded 1.6 billion miles, equivalent to 2.575 billion kilometers. Cars powered by the latest version V12 of "end-to-end" FSD have traveled over 600 million miles, equivalent to 966 million kilometers. According to Musk's previous estimate, Tesla's FSD testing mileage needs to reach 6 billion miles to meet the requirements of global regulatory agencies.

Cumulative mileage of FSD and V12 in billions of miles, image source: Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.

III. Is the new generation Optimus coming?

From the theme of the event "Our Robots," it can be seen that Musk may update the progress of the new generation Optimus.

In August 2023, after two and a half years of practice, Optimus Gen2, featuring a brand-new industrial design and technology, was announced.

In the official video that followed, Musk straightforwardly showcased the progress of the second generation compared to the first generation, including but not limited to:

30% increase in walking speed, 10 kg weight reduction, human foot geometry, faster speed, 11-DoF new dual hands...

Tesla released Optimus Gen2 in December last year, image source: Optimus official

More important than the technical upgrades is the fact that compared to the first generation version with clumsy steps, lack of agility, covered in cables, and only capable of mechanical labor, the Gen2 version of Optimus is much more realistic in terms of human likeness, and even caused a "uncanny valley effect" on social media at one point The rapid iteration and evolution in the field of technology have raised high expectations for the upcoming Optimus Gen3 in the market.

During this demonstration event, this highly anticipated new robot is also expected to make its debut. This seems to be the "highlight" that Musk has created for this demonstration event.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas predicts that Optimus Gen3 will have a larger scale and faster popularity than Tesla's Robotaxi.

In several public occasions before this, Musk has never stopped endorsing and promoting this product. As early as when the Model series of electric cars became popular worldwide, he once publicly stated, "Tesla's long-term future is not new energy vehicles, but will be centered around the Optimus humanoid robot":

"I believe the long-term value of Optimus will exceed the sum of all other Tesla products."

Similar statements, in terms of credibility, are obviously different from his usual rhetoric. Some employees have indicated that Musk has also internally demonstrated his enthusiasm and importance for Optimus. He has warned employees more than once that if the Optimus project fails to make progress in the short term, Tesla may have to lay off employees.

Musk praised Optimus on social media Source: X@Elon Musk

Under such attention and high demands, it is not surprising that the Optimus project has made rapid progress. The latest news suggests that the all-new generation of Optimus Gen3 may bring breakthroughs in precision, communication skills, and other technical aspects, not only capable of playing the piano, but also potentially engaging in simple communication.

For those conservative individuals who have always harbored distrust towards technology and artificial intelligence, the iteration of Optimus Gen3 will not deepen their association with the "mechanical crisis".

On one hand, Musk himself, a seasoned science fiction enthusiast, has always maintained a high level of attention and vigilance towards the ethics of human-machine interaction;

On the other hand, even with advancements in technology, for Optimus to scale up and take over human work, it still needs to address a series of specific issues such as production efficiency and adaptability.

As of now, Tesla has only manufactured a few hundred Optimus units in total, and the company's short-term goal is to have its factory capable of producing thousands of Optimus units annually by the end of 2024. Until achieving this level of production capacity, humanoid robots like Optimus will remain confined to the laboratory and cannot truly move towards industrialization and practical use.

IV. After years of painting the picture of Robotaxi, is Musk finally about to fulfill his dream? "At the shareholders' meeting this year, Musk outlined a blueprint that the Robotaxi will bring a market value growth of 5 to 10 trillion USD to the company. Coupled with the contribution of the humanoid robot Optimus, Tesla's total market value will eventually reach 10 times that of Apple, exceeding 30 trillion USD."

In Musk's view, the above two major business segments are not just about continuing a new chapter for this masterpiece of Tesla, but rather about "writing an unprecedented new book."

However, despite the brilliant prospects and optimistic spirit in Musk's hands, he actually has nothing tangible to show for it.

Apart from the still uncertain Optimus, the visible commercialization process of Robotaxi, Musk will also face challenges from various dimensions such as government regulations, technology, costs, operations and services, market acceptance, and more.

On the government front, a report from Bernstein indicates that Tesla lags behind its competitors in regulatory approvals. Currently, the company has not conducted any unmanned driving tests, while Waymo, a subsidiary of Google, has been doing so since 2017.

Furthermore, on the technological front, Tesla's autonomous driving solution without the addition of lidar, although helping them lead in cost competitiveness, has also hindered the progress of artificial intelligence training. Wu Xinzhou also mentioned that although FSD has raised the upper limit, "the issue of the lower limit has not been completely resolved, the original logic errors still exist in FSD, and there is still a lot of work to be done in the face of China's complex traffic conditions."

Many experts predict that autonomous driving issues will become a major burden on Tesla's path forward.

Renowned technology industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Tesla's Robotaxi will not be mass-produced until at least the first quarter of 2027. The reason for such slow progress in mass production is not related to the vehicle's hardware design and manufacturing capabilities, but is entirely constrained by Tesla's progress in autonomous driving research and development.

Ming-Chi Kuo's supply chain investigation and analysis of Tesla's Robotaxi Source: X@Ming-Chi Kuo

More importantly, the United States is not prepared for any type of large-scale robot taxi network. While about 10 states are conducting robot taxi testing and pilot projects, there are no real comprehensive federal regulations in place.

For the above reasons, many analysts believe that the prospects brought by Robotaxi may have been greatly overestimated compared to Tesla's new energy vehicles and humanoid robot business.

However, these external views have not yet affected Musk's determination and attitude.

Musk once said, "We are going all in on autonomous driving," which represents Tesla's long-term ambition Since the beginning of this year, both Chinese and American companies have accelerated the pace of Robotaxi deployment. Whether it's Baidu's "Apollo Go," Uber's strategic partnership with Avride, or Google's Waymo recently announcing the upcoming public launch of its autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, the competition in the Robotaxi sector is still intensifying.

Whether Musk will deliver on his promises made over the years or pour cold water on them remains to be seen at the upcoming press conference