TechInsights: By 2029, Arm architecture will account for over 40% of the market share for laptop processors

TechInsights' latest notebook computer forecast data indicates that Arm will pose a threat to x86's long-standing dominance in the notebook computer market. It is projected that by 2025, Arm will account for one-fifth of notebook computer shipments, and by 2029, this proportion will double to reach half. By 2029, due to Apple's high-value products, Arm's revenue share in the notebook computer market is expected to reach 52%.

Although Arm Holdings CEO Rene Hass's statement about Arm potentially capturing 50% of the Windows PC market in the next five years has been questioned, it remains a highly achievable goal as long as Microsoft and Qualcomm (or MediaTek) can overcome all remaining emulation issues (including the need for emulation). To achieve the projected growth in Arm's market share, Windows Prism must become a thing of the past, and Arm needs to achieve the same level of hardware security hardening on PCs as most current commercial customers require.

The notebook computer market is expected to grow by 14% in 2025, a growth rate unseen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The heat of the PC market is evident, as seen in the hype surrounding AI PCs. In 2025, Intel will face a tough test, needing to defend its architecture and maintain market share amidst increasingly fierce competition. It is expected that Apple will launch a MacBook with the M4 chip by the end of 2024, rumors suggest that Qualcomm will enter the desktop market in 2025, and products from the joint venture between MediaTek and NVIDIA are also expected to debut in the market for the first time in 2025