Radish Run "Runs Towards" Overseas

Author | Wang Xiaojuan

Editor | Zhou Zhiyu

The Robotaxi battle has entered a white-hot stage.

On October 11th, Beijing time, the long-delayed Tesla Robotaxi was finally officially launched, and the model was officially named Cybercab, without a steering wheel and pedals. The cost is controlled below $30,000 (approximately 212,000 RMB), and including taxes and operating costs, it is as low as 30 to 40 cents per mile (currently about 2.1 to 2.8 RMB).

Of course, this goal will not be achieved until 2026.

Competitors are naturally unwilling to fall behind. On the eve of the Tesla Robotaxi launch, Baidu's Apollo is planning to take a step towards a larger market and strategize to go overseas.

On October 9th, sources familiar with the matter revealed to Wall Street News that Baidu's Apollo is actively expanding globally, having deep discussions with multiple international companies, planning to enter overseas markets, and first testing and deploying autonomous taxis in locations such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and the Middle East.

Wall Street News also learned that Baidu is about to release Apollo Autonomous Driving Open Platform 10.0, which will carry Baidu's latest autonomous driving large model ADFM (Autonomous Driving Foundation Model). This upgrade will significantly enhance the safety, intelligence, and usability of the autonomous driving open platform, designed for global users.

By announcing its overseas expansion plan, Apollo is clearly going head-to-head with Tesla's Robotaxi.

However, for Chinese manufacturers, autonomous driving going overseas is not a new phenomenon.

For Baidu, as early as 2016, it obtained an autonomous driving test license in California.

Moreover, many autonomous driving companies competing in the capital market in the first half of this year are seeking greater growth by expanding into overseas markets. They are not only striving to become suppliers of assisted driving for overseas automakers but also attempting to land L4-level Robotaxis in overseas markets.

For example, Pony.ai has been conducting autonomous driving technology and implementation cooperation in countries such as South Korea, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE; another autonomous driving company, WeRide's Robotaxi, was driving on the streets of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, as early as August this year.

Over the past decade, autonomous driving has not only been a highland for many geniuses to compete but also considered one of the best manifestations of AI. After a decade, autonomous driving has transitioned from technological competition to the commercialization of the second half.

In the process of large-scale commercialization, Apollo is still leading the way.

Since last year, in cities like Wuhan, many ordinary consumers can experience Baidu's Apollo on the streets.

According to Baidu's second-quarter financial report for 2024, Apollo has supplied approximately 899,000 autonomous driving orders, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with a total service volume exceeding 7 million orders. In terms of order volume, Apollo has become the world's largest autonomous driving travel service platform Compared to others, other companies' Robotaxis only operate within certain cities and have a smaller commercial scope.

However, all companies are accelerating. Another enterprise that is moving quickly in commercialization is Waymo, an autonomous driving service under Alphabet, across the ocean.

In March this year, Waymo announced that it would provide autonomous passenger services for employees in Austin, Texas starting from March 6th. According to data released in August, Waymo's weekly Robotaxi orders have reached 100,000.

Tesla, which just held a press conference, has become a strong competitor in the Robotaxi field because its autonomous driving capabilities have been demonstrated in FSD.

This year, Tesla's FSD V12 version has achieved an "end-to-end" artificial intelligence autonomous driving solution. Currently, FSD has been widely deployed in North America on Model 3 and Model Y. In addition, there is increasing news about FSD entering China, which is unsettling for competitors.

The reason why the Robotaxi race is so hot worldwide is because this industry is considered a trillion-dollar market with extremely high profit margins.

According to consulting firm Frost & Sullivan's forecast, Robotaxis will achieve large-scale commercialization around 2026. It is estimated that by 2030, Robotaxis will be widely adopted globally, with a penetration rate of 31.8% in China for smart travel, reaching 69.3% by 2035. By 2030, the market size of Robotaxis in China and globally is expected to reach 488.8 billion/834.9 billion yuan respectively.

He Xiaopeng, Chairman of XPeng Motors, has also made a prediction: "The Robotaxi industry will reach a turning point in 2026." With technological reserves, XPeng is also trying to get a piece of the action in this race. Recently, they have been expanding the Robotaxi team, with several positions offering annual salaries of nearly a million, and XPeng's Robotaxi is set to be launched in 2026.

Also actively entering the market is Yuanrong Qixing. Its CEO, Zhou Guang, revealed that Yuanrong has already entered into mass production cooperation with several major OEMs and is actively laying out the scale operation of Robotaxis based on mass-produced vehicles.

According to Cathy Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest, the Robotaxi business will be a revenue opportunity of four to five trillion dollars in the next five to ten years. This is a SaaS model with a gross profit margin of over 80%.

In comparison, even for car companies with high profit margins, their profit margins are still below 30%.

This also explains why Musk has always emphasized Robotaxis and previously admitted that he can sell cars at zero profit and make money through FSD.

In Cathy Wood's view, Robotaxi is also an industry where the winner takes the lion's share, "The company that can transport people from point A to point B the fastest and safest, while minimizing waiting time, will win the majority of the market share." This also explains why all companies are heading towards larger markets, opening up a mode of competition among the heroes.

However, while autonomous driving seems relatively easy to achieve technically, when driving around the world, it will inevitably face constraints such as data security and regulations. These are the challenges that these manufacturers must face in the competition among the heroes