CITIC Securities: Tesla "WE, ROBOT" Conference Held, Demonstrating Strong Robot Motion Control and Dexterity

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, CITIC Securities published a research report stating that Tesla (TSLA.US) held the "We, Robot" conference, showcasing dozens of Optimus robots with strong motion control capabilities. The conference emphasized consumer-end application scenarios, production capacity, and long-term costs, and demonstrated a new generation of 22-degree-of-freedom dexterous hands, which are expected to be used in the next generation robot Gen3. CITIC Securities believes that the performance demonstration of this robot's motion control capabilities is a milestone, and Tesla is expected to visit the domestic industry chain again and determine production nodes. CITIC Securities continues to be optimistic about the future opportunities in the humanoid robot sector and recommends focusing on industry targets related to Tesla's humanoid robots.

Events:

According to Tesla's official WeChat video account, at 10:00 am on October 11th Beijing time, Tesla held the "We, Robot" conference in Los Angeles, USA, showcasing dozens of Optimus robots, an upgrade from the previous Gen2 version, and separately demonstrating the new generation robot dexterous hand. Optimus interacted closely with the audience, and Musk further envisioned the future scenarios of robots entering consumer-end applications.

The interactive performance at the conference demonstrated strong motion control capabilities. Although some developers on personal social media platforms indicated that this interaction was "remote-controlled," its excellent motion control capabilities still opened up imaginative possibilities for application scenarios.

Various motion control scenes were demonstrated on-site, showcasing the most powerful action capabilities in the global humanoid robot industry: 1) Several Optimus robots performed dances in a closed room at the center of the stage; 2) Optimus entered the audience area under supervision and interacted with surrounding audience members by waving; 3) Optimus delivered drinks/chocolates to the audience in the bar area and played rock-paper-scissors with them. Some developers on platforms like X indicated on personal social media that due to the maturity of training capabilities for large-scale end-to-end models, this Optimus demonstration may have used "remote control." CITIC Securities believes that even if "remote-controlled," it was for the smooth progress of the conference. More importantly, the motion control capabilities of the robot under remote control are close to human-like, with a battery life of over 3 hours, indicating significant imaginative possibilities in areas such as home, elderly care, and special operations.

Musk emphasized consumer-end application scenarios, and the demonstration of its capabilities also showed greater production capacity in the future.

Musk stated that Optimus can serve as a child's teacher/caretaker, handle tasks such as walking dogs, mowing lawns, and shopping. The demonstration video showed various scenes of Optimus in consumer-end households, including walking indoors, fetching deliveries at the door, watering plants with a water kettle, tidying up desktop toys, cleaning the desktop with a cloth and spray bottle, queuing to deliver drinks, and taking shopping bags from the car trunk. Previously, the market's expectations for Optimus were focused on short-term applications in manufacturing plants, but the consumer-end applications significantly increased the future product's production capacity. In addition, Musk reiterated that under a large-scale production perspective, the cost of Optimus will be below $20,000-$30,000 22-degree-of-freedom dexterous hand debuts for the first time, expected to be used in the next generation robot Gen3.

The brand-new dexterous hand made its debut independently, showcasing a new posture of abduction/adduction on the basis of flexion/extension. The dexterous hand's cable-driven structure is eye-catching, with the actuator located externally in the forearm, allowing flexible rotation of the wrist. The debut of the new dexterous hand aligns with Musk's previous statement of 22 degrees of freedom, and also matches the expectation of the dexterous hand using the "hollow cup + lead screw + rope drive" solution by CITIC Securities. The 22 degrees of freedom consist of 5 fingers with 4 degrees of freedom each + 2 degrees of freedom at the wrist, closely mimicking the structure of human fingers with over 1 degree of freedom at the lowest joint.

Risk Factors:

Policy execution and support are lower than expected; progress in task tackling is slower than expected; demand in the humanoid robot market is lower than expected; domestic humanoid robot industrialization is lower than expected; significant changes occur in mainstream technological solutions for humanoid robots; response from domestic robot manufacturers is lower than expected.

Investment Strategy:

The development trend of the humanoid robot sector is clear, and the sector is expected to enter the next round of intensive catalytic period. Leading manufacturers are expected to achieve mass production by 2024, and Tesla is also expected to revisit the domestic industrial chain and determine production nodes. CITIC Securities continues to be optimistic about the follow-up opportunities in the humanoid robot sector, and recommends focusing on industry targets related to Tesla's humanoid robot