NVIDIA hitting a new high is a sign! Since the Fed's rate cut in September, the logic of the US stock market has changed again

The Fed's rate cut and optimistic expectations of a soft landing for the economy have reignited risk appetite. Since September, US technology stocks, which experienced a turbulent summer, have started a rebound, with NVIDIA hitting a new high overnight. However, whether tech stocks can regain their dominant position, and whether the rotation in the US stock market can continue, this earnings season is crucial.

On Monday, NVIDIA rose by 2.4% to close at $138.07, surpassing the historical high reached in July, with a market value of $3.39 trillion, approaching Apple's $3.5 trillion market value. Over the past month, NVIDIA has rebounded by 18%.

NVIDIA's return to a high point marks a shift in the narrative logic of the US stock market.

This summer, events such as AI earnings disappointments, the reversal of carry trades, and the unexpected cold non-farm payroll data raised expectations of rate cuts, leading to a major correction in tech stocks. The US stock market saw style rotation, with tech stocks, which have long dominated the market, being sold off, while previously less favored sectors such as finance, industry, defensive sectors, and small-cap stocks began to rise.

However, since the Fed's rate cut in September, tech stocks have "regrouped". Data shows that IT and communication services were the two worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 in the third quarter, but since the FOMC meeting in September, they have become one of the best-performing sectors, with the IT index rising by over 7%.

Whether this rebound marks the beginning of tech stocks reclaiming dominance in the US stock market, or is just a short-term rally in the ongoing rotation of the US stock market, the market is closely watching the current earnings season.

This earnings season will determine the style of the US stock market

Analysts have differing views on this round of tech stock rebound.

Dec Mullarkey, Managing Director of SLC Management, believes that the rotation from large-cap stocks to other stocks may have already ended, stating: "Investors shifted to defensive positions before the Fed meeting, but since then the Fed's tone and subsequent data have been very favorable for risk appetite."

However, Kevin Gordon, Senior Investment Strategist at Jiaxin Wealth Management, is not as optimistic:

"I'm not yet convinced that there is a clear return to the dominance of tech stocks... This seems more like catching up, as other sectors such as finance and industry had already hit new highs before tech stocks and large-cap stocks, and tech stocks have room to make up some lost ground, especially as this sector tends to perform well during Fed rate cut cycles."

As Gordon mentioned, unlike the past where tech stocks surged alone, in this tech rebound, over 60% of stocks in the S&P 500 have risen, including cyclical sectors such as industry and energy.

The ongoing release of earnings reports will determine whether the rotation in the US stock market can continue.

Last week, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo's better-than-expected performance pushed bank stocks to their highest levels since the Silicon Valley bank collapse, and the strong start to the third-quarter earnings season has increased optimism about the US economic outlook, with small-cap stocks showing strong gainsHowever, the bond market is not as optimistic as the stock market, with yields steadily rising and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury hovering around 4%. Analysis believes that the divergence between stocks and bonds will not last forever, and once refuted, the wrong side will see a significant correction.

This week, the market will welcome financial and consumer giants such as Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson's financial reports. In the following week, financial reports of large-cap tech stocks will be released one after another, followed by a dense release of small-cap stock reports in the next two weeks.