Another tech leader plunges, will the July market repeat itself?

In addition to the US election and the increasingly tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, another dangerous signal has added uncertainty to the market in the US stock market.

1. Semiconductor Prosperity Indicator Cools Down

Dutch company ASML is the world's most advanced lithography machine manufacturer (often mentioned in relation to sanctions against China). The financial data that was supposed to be released on Wednesday was leaked on Tuesday due to "technical issues". Although revenue met expectations, the backlog orders plummeted to 2.6 billion euros, less than half of the market's expectations (5.4 billion euros).

Order cuts from Intel-led customers, reduced new orders in areas other than AI, and strong supervision over the largest regional customer (China accounting for half of revenue) led to ASML's performance collapse. The industry's prosperity is not as hot as imagined, ASML's stock price plummeted by 16% on Tuesday and continued to fall by 4% the next day.

Figure 1 ASML stock price plunges, dragging Nasdaq away from historical highs

2. How is the Fundamental Situation of US Stocks During Earnings Season

The concentration issue of US stocks has always been a focus of the cautious camp. As we enter the earnings season for the third quarter, top companies represented by the Big Tech Seven Sisters are expected to continue to contribute excess profits (nearly 20% year-on-year growth), while the profit growth of small and medium-sized enterprises will be flat, a far cry from the rapid growth two years ago.

This coincides with the downturn in prosperity reflected by the manufacturing PMI. In the structure of the US economy, there is a differentiation between the service industry and the manufacturing industry, between large enterprises and small enterprises, and different economic entities have vastly different experiences.

Figure 2 Performance of S&P 500 component stocks as forecasted by US banks

3. Review of the Market in July, How Did It Play Out

In July, leading AI technology companies led by NVIDIA experienced a sharp decline, triggering a chain reaction at one point.

(1) After hitting historical highs and pulling back, the sentiment in tech stocks spread to global stock indices for safe-haven, causing emerging market currencies to fall.

(2) Economic concerns led to a rapid rise in rate cut expectations, with global bond yields generally falling.

(3) The US dollar index declined, Carry Trade unwound, benefiting the appreciation of the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan.

(4) After the panic subsided, US stocks stabilized ahead of the US index.

Figure 3 Black Swan in July, rapid cooling of global risk appetite

The similarity in this round is

(1) The 10-year US Treasury yield turned around after encountering resistance at 4.1%, returning to the 4% level（2）The yen and the US-Japan interest rate spread show a deviation, with the safe-haven indicator gold hitting a new high and crude oil falling.

Figure 4: The yen starts to fall below the implied valuation of the interest rate spread.

4. With more variables, how to grasp the trading theme

Repeated interest rate cuts, Chinese economic policies, US elections, peninsula situation, potential risks in US stocks... A series of variables overlapping make the foreign exchange market in the fourth quarter unpredictable. The volatility across the election has reached a two-year high, making the trend unclear before the November election and the Fed meeting.

Figure 5: Implied volatility of the election surges

If US stocks repeat the optimism downturn of July, interest rates may return to a downward trend, providing room for appreciation for the yen and the euro.

Author: Li Haoran, Source: Morning Market, Original Title: "Will the technology leader's sharp decline in July reappear in the market?"