Beishui Trends | Beishui net sold 3.102 billion Hong Kong stocks ETF sold, Alibaba and Tencent received increased investment from domestic investors

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, on October 18th, in the Hong Kong stock market, Beishui had a net selling of HKD 31.02 billion, with a net selling of HKD 29.46 billion through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and HKD 1.56 billion through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

The top stocks with the most net buying by Beishui were Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent (00700), and SMIC (00981). The top stocks with the most net selling by Beishui were GF Fund (02800), HSCEI (02828), and CNOOC (00883).

Active trading stocks through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect:

Active trading stocks through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect:

Alibaba-W (09988) had a net buying of HKD 1.361 billion. On the news front, Guosen Securities pointed out that Alibaba is about to release its financial report for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, with an expected year-on-year revenue growth of 6% and an adjusted EBITA profit margin of 18% during the period. Looking ahead to this year's Double 11 promotion, all platforms have increased their investment intensity, which may have a temporary impact on profit margins. Currently, the platform with the largest increase in promotional intensity year-on-year is Taotian, which has invested HKD 30 billion in consumer vouchers and red envelopes for this year's Double 11, far exceeding the over HKD 10 billion red envelopes in 2023. Platforms such as JD, Pinduoduo, and Douyin have slightly strengthened their promotional efforts. In terms of market share, we expect Taotian's GMV growth rate during this Double 11 to approach the market average, which is expected to enhance merchants' confidence in the long term and lay the foundation for improving commercialization rates in the future.

Tencent (00700) had a net buying of HKD 705 million. On the news front, Bank of America Securities stated that if the macroeconomic conditions improve, Tencent's payment business will benefit from the recovery of the retail market, and its advertising business will also benefit from the recovery of merchants. If the macroeconomic conditions do not improve, the bank also believes that Tencent is defensive because its gaming business has little correlation with the macro cycle and the game is currently in an upward cycle. In addition, the advertising business can increase virtual ad loads and use artificial intelligence to improve ad conversion rates, thereby self-regulating to mitigate macroeconomic impacts.

SMIC (00981) had a net buying of HKD 422 million. On the news front, TSMC's third-quarter performance significantly exceeded market expectations; it is expected that the fourth-quarter sales will be between USD 26.1 billion and USD 26.9 billion, surpassing the market's estimate of USD 24.94 billion The analysis pointed out that TSMC raised its 2024 revenue growth target after exceeding quarterly performance expectations, alleviating concerns in the market about the sustainability of global chip demand and AI hardware prosperity, indicating to investors that the demand for chips remains strong.

CMB Securities (06099) saw a net sell-off of HKD 21.33 million. On the news front, the People's Bank of China has officially launched the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Companies Interchange Facility (SFISF) operation, in addition, the People's Bank of China has officially introduced stock repurchase and increased lending. It is reported that CMB Securities has been approved to participate in the SFISF operation, with an initial application of 5 billion yuan. Haitong Securities believes that the establishment of SFISF can enhance the financing and leverage capabilities of non-bank financial institutions.

Sunac China (01918) experienced a net sell-off of HKD 28.26 million. On the news front, Sunac China recently announced a discount of approximately 20% for the placement of shares, with the total proceeds from the subscription amounting to approximately 1.205 billion Hong Kong dollars, mainly intended to support the implementation of long-term solutions for domestic corporate debt and general operating funds. The board believes that the placement and subscription will help better resolve the domestic public market debt risks of the group, and the resolution of related debt risks will also be more conducive to the completion of the group's delivery work and business recovery.

Beishui Capital sold off Hong Kong stock ETFs, with Profit Rich Fund (02800) and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) experiencing net sell-offs of 5.372 billion and 1.994 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively. On the news front, Guosen Securities believes that in the long term, the certainty of the improvement in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stock heavyweight stocks remains strong, as the Fed has entered an interest rate cut cycle, the long-term logic of Hong Kong stocks has not been substantially undermined, only needing time and space to digest the short-term overly high sentiment. Guojun International, on the other hand, stated that looking ahead, the future trend of the Hong Kong stock market is mainly upward, with interest rate-sensitive industries having greater price elasticity.

In addition, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net buy-in of 255 million Hong Kong dollars, while CNOOC (00883) experienced a net sell-off of 478 million Hong Kong dollars