Guo Mingchi: Microsoft's Q4 GB200 orders surged 3-4 times, exceeding the total of all other cloud service providers

Tianfeng International analyst Guo Minghao has recently released the industry chain order information of Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chip, pointing out that Microsoft is currently the largest GB200 customer in the world, with Q4 orders surging 3-4 times, exceeding the total orders of all other cloud service providers.

Conclusion

1. Microsoft's demand for GB200 exceeds the total order volume of other cloud service providers, with a significant increase of 3 to 4 times in Q4 2024.
2. Key component suppliers for Microsoft's GB200 plan to start mass production and shipments in Q4 2024, earlier than other cloud service providers, which will enhance their supply chain performance.
3. The revenue recognition time for key component suppliers will be earlier than assembly suppliers, as key components will be shipped regardless of whether assembly suppliers can meet Microsoft's demand in Q4 2024.

Industry Survey and Updates

1. The capacity expansion of Blackwell chips is expected to start in early Q4 2024. Considering yield rate and testing efficiency, the shipment volume in Q4 2024 is estimated to be between 150,000 to 200,000 units, with a significant increase of 200% to 250% in Q1 2025, reaching 500,000 to 550,000 units.
2. Currently, Microsoft is the most active customer in purchasing GB200. In addition to the originally planned GB200 NVL36 orders for testing in Q4 2024, Microsoft recently plans to obtain customized GB200 NVL72 units before Nvidia's DGX GB200 NVL72 (also known as reference design) enters mass production (mid Q2 2025).
3. Microsoft's GB200 orders in Q4 2024 have surged from the previous 300-500 racks (mainly NVL36) to approximately 1,400-1,500 racks, with around 70% being NVL72. Subsequent orders will mainly focus on NVL72.
4. Regardless of whether the sole assembler Foxconn's capacity can meet Microsoft's GB200 demand in Q4 2024, Microsoft has recently discussed capacity expansion with key component suppliers for Q4 2024 (approximately 1.5 to 2 times the original capacity or more) and is preparing for early stocking.
5. According to investigations on the two major GB200 assembly suppliers Foxconn and Pegatron, Microsoft's GB200 orders currently seem to exceed the total orders of other cloud service providers.
6. Microsoft plans to prioritize deploying GB200 in low-temperature data centers (such as in Washington State, the Quebec City in Canada, Helsinki in Finland, etc.) to proactively mitigate potential impacts due to insufficient cooling system optimization time.
7. Orders from other cloud service providers, such as Amazon's 300-400 rack GB200 NVL36 orders in Q4 2024, and Meta's focus on Ariel rather than Bianca architecture, have significantly lower order volumes compared to Microsoft. This does not necessarily indicate a conservative attitude of other cloud service providers, but rather Microsoft's current demand for GB200 is significantly higher than other cloud service providers