Next week's heavy schedule: The central bank announced that the new LPR will be lowered! Europe and the United States' October PMI, Tesla's heavyweight financial report

A summary of major financial events from October 21st to October 25th, all in Beijing time:

Key focus for next week: China's October LPR quotation and MLF operation rates, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in September, preliminary PMI data for October in Europe and the United States, and Tesla kicks off the tech giants' earnings season.

In addition, the 2024 IMF and World Bank Autumn Meetings will commence, the U.S. will release the Beige Book on economic conditions, and companies like Coca-Cola and IBM will announce their latest financial reports.

PBOC "hints" at interest rate cut next week, attention to actual operations at that time

On September 24th, PBOC Governor Yi Gang stated at a press conference at the State Council Information Office that lowering the central bank's policy interest rate is expected to lead to a reduction of approximately 0.3 percentage points in the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate after this policy rate adjustment. It is anticipated that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), deposit rates, and others will also decrease by 0.2 to 0.25 percentage points.

On October 18th, Yi Gang mentioned at the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting that based on the market liquidity situation by the end of the year, there is an expectation to further reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points; lower the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate by 0.2 percentage points; and decrease the MLF rate from 2.3% to 2%. It is expected that the LPR to be announced next Monday (October 21st) will also decrease by 0.2-0.25 percentage points.

Previously, the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate, a key policy rate, was adjusted from 1.70% to 1.50%, a decrease of 20 basis points. As the pricing basis for the current LPR quotation, the reduction in policy rates is expected to drive adjustments in the LPR.

In light of this, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Orient Securities, mentioned in an interview with Securities Daily that it is expected that both LPR varieties for October will be reduced by 20 basis points. With a series of incremental policies being introduced, macro policies are fully exerting efforts in the direction of stabilizing growth. The reduction in LPR aligns with the overall direction of current macro policies and is a key link in transmitting the PBOC's "forceful interest rate cuts" to the real economy.

On Friday (October 25th), the PBOC will also conduct a one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation.

Last month, the MLF rate was already reduced by 30 basis points. On September 25th, the PBOC announced that, in order to maintain reasonable and ample liquidity in the banking system, a 300 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term was conducted, with a highest bid rate of 2.30%, lowest bid rate of 1.90%, bid rate of 2.00%, reduced by 30 basis points compared to before 海通宏观梁中华团队分析表示，四季度 MLF 到期量合计 3.69 万亿，50bp 降准能够对冲接下来将大量到期的 MLF，在补充流动性的同时，帮助降低银行资金成本。而逆回购利率和存款利率的下降则能更直接更高效地为银行负债端降成本。

同时，年内第二轮存款利率下调也已落地。 10 月 18 日起，中国六大行集体下调存款利率，也是大行自 2022 年 9 月以来第六次主动下调存款利率。

从调整幅度来看，此次调整较上一轮力度更大。其中，工、农、中、建、交五大行活期存款挂牌利率普遍下调 5BP 至 0.1%；定期存款的不同期限品种挂牌利率均下调 25BP，下调之后整存整取 3 个月期、半年期、1 年期、2 年期挂牌利率分别降至 0.8%、1%、1.1%、1.2%，3 年期、5 年期挂牌利率降至 1.5%、1.55%。邮储银行调整后的整存整取半年期、1 年期品种利率比其他大行继续略高 1BP、2BP。

中国 9 月规模以上工业企业利润

周日（10 月 27 日），国家统计局公布中国 9 月规模以上工业企业利润数据。

上月公布的数据显示，中国 8 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 17.8%，较前值 4.1% 回落 21.9 个百分点。1—8 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 46527.3 亿元，同比增长 0.5%，较前值下降 3.1 个百分点。

国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，受市场有效需求不足以及高温、暴雨、洪涝等自然灾害对部分地区冲击较大等因素影响，加之 8 月份当月同期基数较 7 月份明显抬高，1-8 月份，规上工业企业利润增速有所回落，但仍延续年初以来的增长态势，以高技术制造业为代表的新动能行业保持较快增长，工业经济高质量发展持续稳步推进。

2024 年 IMF 和世行秋季年会开幕

国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行 2024 年秋季年会将于 10 月 21-26 日在美国首都华盛顿举行。

各国央行行长、财政和发展部长、议员、私营部门高管、民间社会组织代表和学者将聚集一堂，讨论全球关注的问题，包括世界经济前景、消除贫困、经济发展和援助有效性。

年会还举办研讨会、地区简报会、新闻发布会和其他活动，重点关注全球经济、国际发展和世界金融体系。

美联储经济状况褐皮书

周四（10 月 24 日），美联储公布由 12 个地方联储编制的全国经济形势调查报告 “褐皮书”。The report released last month shows that economic activities in most parts of the United States remained flat or declined, with a slowdown in consumer spending; the labor market is mixed, with companies reluctant to hire more but layoffs still rare; prices have risen slightly, but not significantly.

The "dot plot" released after last month's FOMC meeting showed a divergence among Federal Reserve officials on the future interest rate path. In the press conference after the meeting, Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of paying attention to the Fed's Beige Book:

Since our last meeting, we have received a lot of data, including two non-farm payroll reports for July and August, as well as two inflation reports, one of which was released during the Fed officials' blackout period. The QCW report indicates that our non-farm payroll additions may have been artificially inflated and will be revised down.

We have also seen anecdotal data like the Fed's Beige Book, so we have collected all this data, entered the blackout period for public speaking, thought about what to do, and made it clear that this is the right thing for the economy and for the American people we serve. This is how we make decisions.

Can Tesla's Financial Report Regain Market Confidence?

Tesla is set to release its third-quarter financial report on Thursday (October 24).

According to Bloomberg analysts, it is widely expected that Tesla's Q3 revenue will be $25.42 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase; earnings per share will be $0.51, a 4% year-on-year decrease.

AI products and services have been seen as the next catalyst for Tesla's growth, and investors are looking forward to positive guidance from Tesla at the conference.

Previously, Musk's Robotaxi performance did not satisfy the market, leading to a sharp decline in its stock price.

Mainstream Wall Street views comment that Tesla's lack of immediate delivery results or incremental revenue drivers for Robotaxi will make investors "re-focus on the company's fundamentals," but the company's fundamentals are "quite poor," with the core reason being the increasing disconnect between Tesla's stock's high valuation and the reality of stagnant profit growth.

Some analysts suggest that as the market's attention increasingly shifts towards profits, Tesla's stock price may continue to face pressure due to the ongoing headwinds in the automotive industry.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• On Thursday (October 24), the Eurozone and the United States will release the preliminary PMI for October.

Data released last month showed that the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI hit a new low for the year in September, with both Germany and France accelerating their contractions, indicating renewed signs of economic weaknessUS September Markit Manufacturing PMI hits a 15-month low, with the expansion rate of the service industry slowing down and price pressures reappearing.

In September, the initial value of the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47, hitting the lowest level since June 2023; the initial value of the Service PMI in September was 55.4, a two-month low; the initial value of the Markit Composite PMI in September was 54.4, also hitting a new low since July 2024.

• Most existing home loan interest rates were lowered in bulk on October 25th (Friday), and the adjustment results can be viewed starting from the 26th.

Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Tao Ling, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 17th that it is expected that most existing home loan rates will be lowered in bulk by October 25th, meaning that on October 26th, everyone can view the adjustment results through the designated channels of the loan banks. Some small and medium-sized banks may adjust slightly later, but overall, it will be completed by October 31st.

• On Sunday (October 27th), most regions in Europe will switch to winter time.

European winter time will start on October 27, 2024, at which time the trading hours of exchanges such as LME, Eurex, and ICEU will be delayed by 1 hour compared to the current time.

IPO Opportunities

There are 3 new IPOs available for subscription in the A-share market this week (October 21st to October 25th).

A total of 27 new funds (combined statistics of Class A and Class C) were issued this week, including 7 bond funds, 4 hybrid funds, 0 stock funds, 13 index funds, 1 Reit, and 2 FOFs.