Buying $1 million worth of "tickets" every day, this is Musk's most extreme gamble
From satellites to autonomous driving, from brain chips to AI robots, Musk's technologies all face significant regulatory obstacles before going public. If Trump wins, Musk will gain tremendous influence over regulatory agencies. In this unpredictable election, Musk's prospects for Tesla, his reputation, and wealth are closely tied to Trump
In order to support Trump's re-election campaign, Musk has come up with a "surprise move," turning political voting into a "lottery." This move has sparked controversy over whether Musk has violated US election laws, and Musk's "all-in" on Trump is seen as a high-stakes gamble risking Tesla as well as his personal reputation and wealth.
According to China News Network, on the 19th local time, Musk announced that he would randomly give $1 million to a Pennsylvania voter who signed a petition for the "America PAC" every day until Election Day (November 5th).
It is reported that Musk has created the "America PAC" to support Trump's campaign. Previously disclosed federal documents show that Musk has already provided at least $75 million to the "America PAC."
Recently, Musk has also promised voters in swing states outside Pennsylvania that if they sign the petition, they will receive $47, and if they recommend others to sign, they can receive an additional $47.
These actions are facing increasing criticism, with some views suggesting that this may violate US election rules.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, in an interview with NBC, stated that law enforcement should consider whether this billionaire's lottery activity violates election laws:
"The way Musk is using funds in this campaign, and the flow of dark money—not only into Pennsylvania but clearly now into the pockets of Pennsylvanians—is 'very concerning.'"
Under US federal law, providing monetary incentives to compel someone to vote or rewarding them for voting is illegal. According to the Financial Times, legal scholar Richard Hasen, who specializes in election law, stated that this commitment by the world's richest person "violates the core prohibition in US federal elections against buying votes":
"Musk is essentially running a $1 million lottery open only to registered or already registered voters."
Musk's boldest gamble yet: "If he loses, I'm screwed"
Musk has made many bold bets, and his support for Trump may be his boldest move to date.
Musk himself insists that his actions are out of concern for the country. At a recent rally, he stated, "The reason I'm politically active now is because I believe the future of America and civilization is at stake."
However, it is undeniable that from satellites to autonomous driving, from brain chips to AI robots, Musk has a series of enterprises that heavily rely on federal government contracts and regulations. Musk's gamble seems to be that if Trump wins, it will have a significant impact on how the government treats his companies.
Analysts believe that if Trump wins, SpaceX and Starlink satellites may receive more contracts from US national security agencies, and Tesla may win the support of Republicans skeptical of electric cars.
For Tesla, the risk of Musk interfering in the election is the potential alienation of the company's core customers. According to Pew Research Center data, only 13% of Republicans say they might seriously consider buying an electric car, compared to 45% of Democrats Former Aston Martin CEO Andrew Palmer believes that Musk's strategy is "high risk, high return":
If Trump wins, he looks like a genius. If Trump loses, he doesn't look so smart... Although I think most people admire what he's done, I think there's a risk that it stimulates people to look for alternatives to Tesla.
But Musk's considerations go beyond just the electric car business.
It is estimated that Tesla's automotive business could be worth between $70 billion and $100 billion, which means the remaining $650 billion of its market value, as well as Musk's personal wealth of up to $90 billion, largely rely on investors' optimistic sentiment towards its unproven technologies, all of which face significant regulatory hurdles before going public.
In the unpredictable election, Musk closely ties Tesla's prospects, his own reputation, and wealth to Trump.
Earlier this month, in an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Musk half-jokingly talked about Trump: "If he loses, I'm screwed."