Bright Smart Securities: The future trend of Hong Kong stocks will depend on capital flow, and we continue to be optimistic about the potential of the artificial intelligence sector and the performance of related stocks
Yuanta Securities stated at the Global Economic Summit that the future trend of the Hong Kong stock market will be influenced by capital flows, with a focus on A-shares and mainland stimulus measures. The US stock market generally rose during the presidential year, and the artificial intelligence sector continues to be optimistic. The Hong Kong stock market has been volatile recently, breaking through 23,000 points before pulling back to 20,000 points. The US economy is growing slowly, with an increase in unemployment claims and a decrease in inflation rates, with two interest rate cuts expected by the end of the year
According to the Wise Financial APP, Guotai Junan Securities (01428) recently held a Global Economic Summit at the Hong Kong Exchange (00388) Financial Conference Hall. Guotai Junan Securities' Director of Research, Zhi Yaohui, stated that the recent sharp rise in the Hong Kong stock market was mainly driven by funds. The future direction of the Hong Kong stock market will depend on fund flows under the "funds market". It is also necessary to pay attention to the A-share market and whether there will be more stimulus measures in the mainland. As for the U.S. stock market, he analyzed the performance of the U.S. stock market in the past 10 presidential years and concluded that there was generally an increase in the presidential years. He also continues to be optimistic about the potential of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and the performance of related stocks.
Guotai Junan Securities' Executive Director and CEO, Xu Yibin, pointed out that the Hong Kong stock market started to reverse in late September, once rising above the 23,000 level, but in less than half a month, it rapidly fell back to the 20,000 level. Initially, investors were confident about the future market, but once again became uncertain.
Zhuang Tailiang, Executive Director of the Liu Zuo Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, stated that the current U.S. GDP growth rate is still hovering at a low level. Although the unemployment rate has slightly decreased, the number of new unemployment benefit claims has surged, indicating that the U.S. unemployment situation is still not optimistic. The U.S. inflation rate continues to decline, and is expected to continue to fall. The chances of a rate cut have increased, with expectations of two more rate cuts before the end of the year, each at least 0.25%. Due to the expectations of rate cuts, the short-term rebound of the U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected, but in the medium to long term, the U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected to trend downwards