What will the U.S. stock market do tomorrow based on various outcomes? This is Goldman Sachs' answer

Wallstreetcn
2024.11.05 00:24
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Goldman Sachs believes that the most likely outcome is Harris's election with a divided Congress (40% probability), and that long-term growth/NASDAQ/renewable energy/China/global export themes will outperform the market, with defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks

The results of the U.S. election are imminent, and with various possible outcomes, how will the U.S. stock market perform?

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs chief trader John Flood analyzed the potential reactions of the S&P 500 index under different scenarios, specifically:

1. Trump and the Republican Party achieve a complete victory (25% probability, S&P index +3%): Financial stocks significantly outperform the market (GSFINREG index), cyclical stocks outperform global export stocks, and consumer stocks perform poorly under tariffs (GS24TRFS index) and inflation, leading to a rise in the S&P 500 index. Under Trump's leadership, the NASDAQ index will perform well but will not lead, and the speed of interest rate changes may cause the gains to be lower than expected. Republican policies clearly outperform (GSP24REP index).

2. Trump wins with a divided Congress (30% probability, S&P index +1.5%): The elimination of risks and the decline in 10-year yields will outweigh (unintentional pun) negative fiscal factors, but this may mean that the stock market rebound is temporary. Tariffs and deregulation (GSXUDREG index) continue, making increased fiscal spending quite difficult, but long-term interest rates may decline to reflect reduced fiscal spending. This scenario is better for the overall stock market but offers less benefit for undiversified risk aspects.

3. Harris and the Democratic Party achieve a complete victory (5% probability, S&P index -3%): A significant victory for the Democrats may raise the percentage from 21% to 28%, but achieving this goal will be challenging due to the very narrow majority in 2020. Similarly, the deregulation theme loses momentum after the election results for Harris. This combination is negative for risk assets, but the end of events and the decline in interest rates/weakening of the dollar somewhat offset this combination. Democratic policies are clear winners (GSP24DEM index), while oil becomes a loser (GSENOILB index).

4. Harris elected with a divided Congress (40% probability, S&P index -1.5%): Long-term growth (GSXUSGRO index)/NASDAQ/renewable energy (GSCBDMRN index)/China/global exporters all outperform the market; defensive stocks outperform cyclical stocks; in a low-interest-rate, weak dollar, and low-volatility scenario, the decline in the S&P may be bought, and Harris with a divided Congress should benefit market consensus

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